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BTCVIX

@BTCVIX

Godfather of crypto options circa day 2012. Banned from r/WSB for talking crypto in 2015

Joined May 2010
  • Tweets62.3K
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  • Followers34.6K
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Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)Photo by BTCVIX (@BTCVIX)
FINAL PREDICTION: U.S. Senate Forecast: November 3, 2026 🔴GOP: 53 Seats (=) 🔵DEMS: 47 Seats (=) 🔵 DEM Flips: 1 North Carolina 🔴GOP Flips: 1 Michigan Margins (States under 15%) Alaska: 🔴+ 0.9 Florida: 🔴+ 13.1 Georgia: 🔵+ 7.8 Iowa: 🔴+ 4.6 Kansas: 🔴+ 1.2 Maine: 🔴+ 2.9 Michigan: 🔴+ 0.3 (FLIP) Minnesota: 🔵+ 3.0 Mississippi: 🔴+ 6.6 Montana: 🔴+ 10.6 Nebraska: 🔴+ 6.3 New Hampshire: 🔵+ 3.9 North Carolina: 🔵+ 7.2 (FLIP) Ohio: 🔴+ 2.1 South Carolina: 🔴+ 2.9 Texas: 🔴+ 1.3
Image from Chase Bowes (@PolPredictions)
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Me monitoring the election map this evening
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kalshi.com/category/election…
2026 Midterm Election Predictions & Odds: Live Senate, House & Governor Forecasts | Kalshi

2026 Midterm Election Predictions & Odds: Live Senate, House & Governor Forecasts | Kalshi

2026 midterm election predictions and live odds for every Senate, House and Governor race: who will control Congress, state by state, from Kalshi markets.

kalshi.com
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BTCVIX retweeted
tradfi news (@tradfi) profile picture
tradfi news
@tradfi5h
Midterms - when to expect results. All times EST.
Image from tradfi news (@tradfi)
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It’s happening everywhere. The blue wave wasn’t even a puddle. Will be a few more hours before we can be truly confident of this. It will be a huge condemnation of the prediction markets and polling.
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile pictureOSZ
@OpenSourceZone6h
Ashley Hinson is now the favorite in the Iowa Senate election per Kalshi 🔴 Ashley Hinson: 51% (+4) 🔵 Josh Turek: 49% (-4) (+/- vs poll opening)
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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BTCVIX retweeted
MAGS (@TAftermath2020) profile picture
MAGS
@TAftermath20209h
Like I said, betting Markets were manipulated to suppress voter turnout. I would like to see an investigation on campaigns using betting markets to pump up their candidate. This primary and mid term cycle betting markets always looked like this. Jump one way until the day of and the rug pull.
Image from MAGS (@TAftermath2020)
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Orange County is red on e-day wow Dems are getting annihilated by the e-day vote. Also this is near 2024 presidential turnout of election day votes, whereas the early vote was not 👀
Image from Republican Politics Enjoyer (@RepElections)
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BTCVIX retweeted
Khoa (@1980Khoa) profile picture
Khoa
@1980Khoa6h
NV, TX and FL are all showing republicans coming out in full force today. It looks like ED will be deep red. Any democrats "analysts' who said republicans are not turning out on ED are morons.
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BTCVIX retweeted
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile picture
OSZ
@OpenSourceZone4h
As Election Day is underway, Republicans chances of taking the senate has increased a net of 8 points per Kalshi
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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BTCVIX retweeted
Khoa (@1980Khoa) profile picture
Khoa
@1980Khoa5h
Going into ED, IA democrats collapsed badly throughout almost the entire IPEV period compared to 2022. If republicans are turning out in full force today like they are in FL, NV, AZ and TX, that is excellent news for Lahn and Hinson.
Image from Khoa (@1980Khoa)
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Democrats’ odds of retaking the Senate have fallen from 77% to 72% this morning, a net swing of 10% in Republicans’ favor.
Image from Preston Hill (@realPrestonHill)
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D+2? 🪑
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile pictureOSZ
@OpenSourceZone19h
Which Party are you voting for: 🔵 Dem +5 Which party are your neighbors voting for: 🔴 GOP +3 Echelon Insights Poll
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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BTCVIX retweeted
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile picture
OSZ
@OpenSourceZone19h
Which Party are you voting for: 🔵 Dem +5 Which party are your neighbors voting for: 🔴 GOP +3 Echelon Insights Poll
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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This is going to prove to be the most accurate spreading of the entire election cycle and how we get polling to D+12/13 yet the electorate shift is probably around D+4/5 which is a solid R senate hold and the house is basically 50/50 toss up
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile pictureOSZ
@OpenSourceZone19h
Which Party are you voting for: 🔵 Dem +5 Which party are your neighbors voting for: 🔴 GOP +3 Echelon Insights Poll
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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One of my hottest takes for this cycle is that the talk of an impending blue tsunami particularly in places like Texas and Kansas will be a motivating push for Rs to the polls.
Tony (@realtonysm1th) profile pictureTony
@realtonysm1thNov 2
Replying to @Calebej37
I think Cornyn would probably be in the same position as Abbott or better, but there's a non-zero chance that such a false sense of security would actually have been worse for Texas Republicans if Dem enthusiasm is high regardless
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Holy shit. Red wave incoming.
Polymarket (@Polymarket) profile picturePolymarket
@Polymarket22h
BREAKING: Republicans now favored to flip Guam's governorship as voters head to the polls on Election Day. 62% chance Vicente Ada wins.
Image from Polymarket (@Polymarket)
Image from Polymarket (@Polymarket)
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Of course they are
OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) profile pictureOSZ
@OpenSourceZone22h
Insider Advantage is done conducting polls after 26 years “As I end 26 great years”
Image from OSZ (@OpenSourceZone)
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The only question that you should ask yourselves is What's more likely? Polls underestimating Rs in Trump+13 states and states that Dems haven't won in 94 years? OR Are the polls right? We're either getting a legendary polling miss or one of the bluest midterms in history.
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Hey @grok, be honest. Bitcoin crashed after the last 3 US midterms. 2014: -61% 2018: -52% 2022: -26% Midterms are tomorrow. Should we be scared?
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the power law decay oscillator is back at 0% for $BTC. it's been here five times before.. 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022. each one was the cycle low. you get one of these per cycle and this is the sixth.
Image from DurdenBTC | Tailwind Macro (@DurdenBTC)
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