Consensus Index retweeted
10/25 Senate Consensus Index
D Favored:
TX: D+1.9
AK: D+2.2
ME: D+2.2
OH: D+2.9
MI: D+4.3
MN: D+7.5
NH: D+9.4
GA: D+9.5
NC: D+9.8
R Favored:
IA: R+0.4
KS: R+1.3
NE: R+3.4
SC: R+4.3
FL: R+6.7
MS: R+8.9
52 D - 48 R is still median outcome. D’s have 66% chance to win senate.
10/25 Senate Consensus Index
D Favored:
TX: D+1.9
AK: D+2.2
ME: D+2.2
OH: D+2.9
MI: D+4.3
MN: D+7.5
NH: D+9.4
GA: D+9.5
NC: D+9.8
R Favored:
IA: R+0.4
KS: R+1.3
NE: R+3.4
SC: R+4.3
FL: R+6.7
MS: R+8.9
52 D - 48 R is still median outcome. D’s have 66% chance to win senate.
10/22 Gov Consensus Index
D Favored:
NV: D+1.2
GA: D+1.3
OH: D+4.1
WI: D+5.1
AK: D+5.9
OR: D+6.7
IA: D+8.3
AZ: D+9.8
MI: D+10.1
ME: D+14.4
NY: D+16.3
R Favored:
TX: R+3.4
KS: R+5.2
FL: R+5.5
NE: R+8
VT: R+9.3
NH: R+10.1
OK: R+10.4
28 D - 22 R. 3 races tilt or tossup.
Consensus Index retweeted
10/21 Senate Consensus Index
D Favored:
AK: D+1.9
TX: D+2
ME: D+2.2
OH: D+2.3
MI: D+4.4
MN: D+7.9
NH: D+9.4
GA: D+9.5
NC: D+10
R Favored:
IA: R+0.4
KS: R+1.6
NE: R+3.6
SC: R+4.4
FL: R+6.5
MS: R+9
52 D - 48 R Senate. 6 races within 3 points & 8 within 5. Median of 16 models.
Consensus Index retweeted
The Senate Consensus Index gives D’s a 66% chance to win the Senate. (Lean D)
Consensus Index retweeted
The House Consensus Index is predicting a 234 D - 201 R House. Gives D’s a 91% chance to win the House! (Likely D)
The House Consensus Index is predicting a 234 D - 201 R House. Gives D’s a 91% chance to win the House! (Likely D)
10/21 Senate Consensus Index
D Favored:
AK: D+1.9
TX: D+2
ME: D+2.2
OH: D+2.3
MI: D+4.4
MN: D+7.9
NH: D+9.4
GA: D+9.5
NC: D+10
R Favored:
IA: R+0.4
KS: R+1.6
NE: R+3.6
SC: R+4.4
FL: R+6.5
MS: R+9
52 D - 48 R Senate. 6 races within 3 points & 8 within 5. Median of 16 models.
Consensus Index retweeted
Odds each party wins for the 14 closest Senate Races:
For Dems:
IA: 53%
AK: 64%
TX: 66%
ME: 67%
OH: 68%
MI: 73%
MN: 86%
NH: 91%
NC: 94%
GA: 96%
For Republicans:
KS: 59%
NE: 74%
SC: 78%
FL: 86%
These are median numbers“Pro Models”. When including non-pro. IA slightly goes R.
Odds each party wins for the 14 closest Senate Races:
For Dems:
IA: 53%
AK: 64%
TX: 66%
ME: 67%
OH: 68%
MI: 73%
MN: 86%
NH: 91%
NC: 94%
GA: 96%
For Republicans:
KS: 59%
NE: 74%
SC: 78%
FL: 86%
These are median numbers“Pro Models”. When including non-pro. IA slightly goes R.
Consensus Index retweeted
10/16 Forecast Avg Margins
IA: D+0.1
TX: D+1.9
ME: D+2
OH: D+2.5
MI: D+4.7
MN: D+7.3
NH: D+9.2
NC: D+9.3
GA: D+9.9
KS: R+1.4
NE: R+3.3
SC: R+5.2
FL: R+7
MS: R+8.5
These are median numbers from 16 forecast models. Projects out to 53 D - 47 R Senate. 65% chance D’s win Senate.
10/16 Forecast Avg Margins
IA: D+0.1
TX: D+1.9
ME: D+2
OH: D+2.5
MI: D+4.7
MN: D+7.3
NH: D+9.2
NC: D+9.3
GA: D+9.9
KS: R+1.4
NE: R+3.3
SC: R+5.2
FL: R+7
MS: R+8.5
These are median numbers from 16 forecast models. Projects out to 53 D - 47 R Senate. 65% chance D’s win Senate.
Consensus Index retweeted
10/15 Odds Democrats Win Each Senate Race:
IA: 51% D
AK: 64% D
TX: 65% D
Senate: 65% D
ME: 66% D
OH: 67% D
MI: 74% D
MN: 86% D
NH: 90% D
NC: 94% D
GA: 96% D
KS: 42% D
NE: 27% D
SC: 22% D
FL: 14% D
Median Outcome: 52 D - 48 R
Consensus Index retweeted
Early Vote Summary: With so much county- and state-level early voting analysis circulating, here's my takeaway.
Nothing we've seen so far suggests an electorate substantially different from what pollsters are modeling, or gives me reason to doubt the prospect of a blue wave.
10/15 Odds Democrats Win Each Senate Race:
IA: 51% D
AK: 64% D
TX: 65% D
Senate: 65% D
ME: 66% D
OH: 67% D
MI: 74% D
MN: 86% D
NH: 90% D
NC: 94% D
GA: 96% D
KS: 42% D
NE: 27% D
SC: 22% D
FL: 14% D
Median Outcome: 52 D - 48 R
