Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.

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Joined June 2022
Carson Investment Research retweeted
Great piece from @bencasselman (h/t @colbysmith): AI capex may shrug off higher rates: expected returns are high, while power, chips & permits are the real constraints. So the Fed squeeze hits elsewhere (housing, autos + low-income consumers) A familiar 1999 story 🧵 @ryandetrick @CarsonResearch nytimes.com/2026/10/05/busin…
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Oil is moving, but at great cost Which is why Brent is at $103/b, as @Rory_Johnston explains here 👇 youtu.be/bRu2vUunykw?si=nkYF…
Oil is moving but refined products (diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc) are still very slow. Russia also a huge hit to global diesel supply as Ukraine keeps (deservedly) pounding their refineries.
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
It’s tech or bust 👇
The AI CAPEX 🌊 isn't slowing down and sentiment is bearish. That is a very bullish combo for Q4.
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
This 👇 Not sure why the 10y yield should go down if the Fed starts hiking (setting aside any near-term volatility)
FED It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week. Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses. The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle).
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Based on this, and weak average hourly earnings growth, they should cut in September 😬 And why not (using Warsh’s own logic), since that will raise long end rates and tighten financial conditions 🤷‍♂️
Looking just at July's jobs report, there is nothing to suggest that a September hike from the Fed should be on the table. While the unemployment rate fell, it was because fewer people are participating in the labor market, and employers on the whole shed workers. But Fed officials are chiefly focused on inflation and are growing impatient about how long it has taken to return to the 2% target. Warsh's insistence that he will deliver price stability has also made it seem like there is more urgency around getting inflation down than anything else. Wednesday's CPI report is going to be extremely important in determining the odds around a September move
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Here's our updated @CarsonResearch Earnings Season Snapshot
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
.@sonusvarghese dropping knowledge with @joshuahlipton on @YahooFinance 🔥🔥
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
This 👇 🔥🔥🔥 Plus the fact that it was a total blast of a conversation 🙏
We've done 197 episodes of Facts vs Feelings. This week with @JC_ParetsX is now officially the most viewed ever on YouTube. 🥇 🏆 👏 🙏
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Inflation, volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have all been part of 2026. So why have markets stayed resilient? Carson’s Midyear Outlook breaks down the first-half story and what investors may want to watch: bit.ly/4gB6tj1
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Small caps (Russell 2000) were up 23% in the first half of 2026, vs the S&P 500’s 10% return As it turns out, more than half of that return came from stocks tied to AI, and not just small cap tech 🧐 New blog 👇 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Market breadth just hit a new high alongside price. Historically a bullish signal, not a warning sign. @RyanDetrick & @SonusVarghese explain why on Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings. bit.ly/4vQi1nm #MarketBreadth #BullMarket #Investing
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Real GDP growth clocking below trend 👎 Last 5 qtrs: 2.0% 2018-'19: 2.7% 2023-'24: 2.9% BUT nominal GDP last 5 qtrs ~ 5.4% 🔥 2018-'19: 4.6% 2023-'24: 5.6% Into Q2, nominal spending is HOT! Last 2M Nominal: 6.9% 🔥🔥 Real: 1.6% 😬 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
S&P 500 -1% in June, on the back of Mag 7 ($MAGS: -9.1%) 6/11 sectors positive 👍 Also, Mag 7 is not Momentum 😎 S&P 500 Momentum: +7.5% Excess returns over S&P 500 1Y: +22.8% (96th pctle over last 40 years) 3Y: +23.3% annualized (100th pctle) @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
There’s diworsification, and then there’s diversification … blindly adding stuff that’s “not tech” likely more of the former Be careful out there!!!
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
This was so much fun, and a great conversation … take a listen 👇 Thank you @Downtown @michaelbatnick @TheCompoundNews 🙏🙏🙏
Too Early to Get Off the Wave 🌊📈 @RyanDetrick and @sonusvarghese join @Downtown and @michaelbatnick on Episode 248 of The Compound and Friends to break down: • AI bubble fears 🤖 • Micron's monster run 📈 • Small caps vs. mega caps • Inflation, gold & Bitcoin • Alan Greenspan's legacy • Whether this bull market still has legs Watch/Listen now!👇🔥
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Buy-in on IPO day one and you'll trail the market by 34% over the next three years. The data has been clear for decades. Dr. Richard Thaler breaks down why in Episode 192 of Facts vs Feelings. bit.ly/4ekX8dG #IPO #BehavioralEconomics #Investing
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Boom times, w/ $SPCX drawing $350B in demand 😱 But this is an inflationary boom & despite AI, productivity growth has eased Inflation 🔥 Real wages 👎 Margins 🌟 Forget the ‘90s, this could be late ‘60s redux New blog👇 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
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Carson Investment Research retweeted
Not really Of the 565k jobs created over the last 3 months 198k in healthcare (35%) - which is less than last couple of years 360k (64%) across leisure/hospitality, transportation/warehousing, professional business services, construction, manufacturing, retail
Its literally just healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and government jobs. Everything else is floundering.
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