Scott retweeted
Replying to @BeardedTesla
Givin the purchasing vehicle of Tesla will be SpaceX, its better to own Tesla. SpaceX will dilute its shareholders and pay a premium to Tesla (which is already a premium) in order to acquire. I have a fun share in SpaceX but everything else is in Tesla ahead of merger
Scott retweeted
The ratios matter, the floor price matters ... I LOVE SpaceX as a company but I can't just take their newly inflated currency at unknown terms...
I enjoyed this video and love the work Alexandra (@TeslaBoomerMama) and Amy (@Amy787) are doing to help with this potential merger. But I like to address something Herbert (@herbertong) said that not only I disagree with, I actually think is counterproductive to spread that message.
No, Herbert, the share exchange ratio matters enormously, both short and long term. Suggesting it won’t matter because the combined company might eventually be worth $100 trillion is absurd. Our ownership percentage determines how much of that $100 trillion we get!
The reason I want to address it is because this is the third time I’ve heard Tesla investors and content creators suggesting that getting the merger done quickly is more important than the terms. Frankly, I’m concerned we’ll start hearing this more frequently from the people who wanted bad to be done fast.
So let’s remember a few things and think this through:
1- xAI was built partly with talent developed at Tesla, but Elon created it outside Tesla to maintain control. SpaceX eventually acquired it, leaving Tesla shareholders without direct participation in its growth.
2- SpaceX shareholders have already enjoyed extraordinary returns and now stand to benefit enormously from xAI. Meanwhile, Tesla investors have endured years of volatility, delays, and disappointing returns while financing the development of FSD, robotaxis, and Optimus.
3- Tesla is finally approaching the commercialization of those technologies, whose enormous potential isn’t yet reflected in earnings. Why should we surrender that upside without a healthy acquisition premium? Any other company trying to acquire Tesla today would have to pay a substantial premium. Why should SpaceX be any different?
4- we’ll probably hear the reasoning that SpaceX’s AI compute revenue is about to explode, potentially reaching $500B to $1T, so Tesla shareholders should accept whatever terms are offered to participate in that growth ASAP. That’s nonsense. Elon is an extraordinary entrepreneur, but forecasting market demand has never been his strongest skill. Assuming today’s reported $50 per watt compute pricing will persist as another 20 GW of capacity comes online is extremely optimistic. Demand may remain enormous, but prices can fall substantially.
5- Waiting could actually benefit shareholders of both companies. Suppose SpaceX reaches $250B in revenue, only half of Elon optimistic prediction, it could generate $80B–$100B in profits, and commands a $4T–$5T valuation. Meanwhile, Tesla probably will trade around $400–$450, worth approximately $1.5T–$1.75T, as robotaxi and Optimus profits take longer to materialize. SpaceX could then make an offer of share exchange ratio of 2.5 to 1 and it will be over 80% premium for Tesla shareholders and it would dilute much less SpaceX shareholders. Waiting is not necessarily bad, a larger SpaceX valuation could make it easier to offer Tesla shareholders a substantial premium while limiting the percentage dilution experienced by SpaceX shareholders. We might lose some initial SpaceX growth but we might gain bigger premium and easier approval process which is very important.
I agree that getting the merger done sooner rather than later would be preferable, especially considering the political and regulatory uncertainties surrounding the next election cycle. Ideally, I would like to see the transaction completed, sealed, and locked in well before that becomes an issue, but that doesn’t mean the terms shouldn’t be favorable.
Finally, we need to trust the process. The people working on a potential merger understand these issues far better than most of us. I am sure they are working hard to find terms that are acceptable to both groups of shareholders while minimizing conflicts of interest, legal challenges, and unnecessary litigation.
The merger matters and the timing matters, but the valuation, premium, dilution, and exchange ratio matter just as much.
Scott retweeted
Imo, Tesla has higher potential over SpaceX. I'm not sold on the AI demand projections. Infinite money glitches have never worked in the past. Eventually spending must slow down as the models become good enough to last long lengths of time.
Over time, the big players will build their own data centers over purchasing compute from other providers.
Whereas Robotaxi has been proven, if on a small scale.
For the long tail, Optimus has higher potential for mass profits.
Scott retweeted
Why am I adamant about a floor (which we might not get, just trying to explain)?
🤖 Made with AI
Scott retweeted
🗳️
I tried to reach out to the person that put this comment in the signature petition, to no avail.
I take the responsibility to publish this without him knowing, as I believe it is important to us all.
It will motivate me to keep going, through all difficulties that await us.
PS.: if you are the person and want me to take this down, let me know.
Scott retweeted
The $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX merger has me a lot more active on X lately. Not for engagement theater but because I’m watching people fear-buy SpaceX and sell Tesla to do it.
That trade has a real cost. Large holders pay capital gains to get out of TSLA. They give up their vote on the actual deal and they pay up into what’s being sold as the sure thing.
I get the psychology. Holding TSLA feels like they need the merger to work while buying SPCX feels like they own the destination either way, so they rotate and sleep better.
If the merger vote passes and fully clears every hurdle then a lot of those same people who swapped into the “sure thing” are going to be pissed.
Why?
Because if the ratio lands near 50/50 then the people who stayed in TSLA get that gap as an immediate premium at signing. The ones who already paid up into SPCX won't be getting that premium, obviously, and in fact it'll go the other way. Offers tend to give a little back. This means SPCX will immediately trade a bit lower.
So the panic swap buys comfort now but can leave them on the expensive side of the exact deal they were chasing.
Same destination. Worse entry. No vote.
At the end of the day it’s their call. Hold all TSLA, sell a slice to hedge a no-deal or rotate the entire stack. Completely up to them.
I’m posting so anyone making that kind of move at least runs the deeper thought process first. Moves this size need rational thought, not emotion.
Scott retweeted
In solidarity with the young 15 year old lad arrested for sharing this image of a politician.
You know what to do people. Let’s flood X with this.
Scott retweeted
Best reason to hold $TSLA into a $SPCX merger?
If it clears a 50/50 ratio then the current ~30% spread closes and you get SpaceX exposure cheaper than buying SPCX outright today. Same destination. Lower entry.
Ratio locks at signing. Every SPCX run-up after that rides on the TSLA shares you kept.
Sell TSLA for SPCX and lose the discount.
Even Elon Musk gets no say on the terms other than YES/NO when a deal is done. And he founded both companies. He recused himself.
Shareholders don’t dictate terms either. But we can - and did! - ask for considerations in the negotiated exchange ratio based on the stock’s All Time High, internal revenue projections and CyberCab + Optimus scaling.
Scott retweeted
"Elon's gonna rob Tesla holders in this merger" 🙄
Bro… read the 10-Q.
He controls ~80% of SpaceX votes. At Tesla? ~20%.
No deal without Tesla's independent committee signing off. Then it goes to shareholders.
The little guy finally has a seat at the table. And nobody's talking about it 🍺
Scott retweeted
A $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX merger at a fair ratio is arguably the first concrete way this 2022 promise from Elon finally gets delivered.
Scott retweeted
🚨✍️
Calling on the Tesla Board & Special Committee to pursue a merger with SpaceX.
The shareholder letter is live. Read it and sign if you agree. Share it with friends & family.
Thank you to @Amy787 for drafting this so well.
surveymonkey.com/r/mergealre…
We want the combined company focused on building, not bureaucracy.
Scott retweeted
Tesla $TSLA has all the positive momentum with the merger case now on the table.
Shorts will be cooked soon enough.... Let them sing and dance at this point, as good days won't be long for them anyway....
Scott retweeted
Replying to @teslayoda @TeslaBoomerMama
But really tho, we need someone to represent the retail community.
@TeslaBoomerMama
Scott retweeted
Replying to @teslayoda @TeslaBoomerMama
Put her on the Tesla committee to represent Tesla retail.
Scott retweeted
Dear SpaceX and Tesla special committees, may I introduce you the third special committee — @TeslaBoomerMama. 💃🏻






















