All-in $TSLA OG since 2019. Subscribers unlock DM access + short and long-term Tesla takes and archived posts.
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$TSLA cheat sheet
>20x trailing 12-month revenue = overpriced
13-20x = expensive
8-12x = fair priced
5-7x= cheap
<5x = bargain basement prices
South Korea is one of the sharpest traps in an all-stock $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX deal.
Overseas share swap = deemed sale = 22% tax hit.
South Korean holders own about 1.7% of TSLA.
It's the biggest US stock held in that country.
Watch who you listen to on X, including me.
A lot of people sold $TSLA to swap into $SPCX. They will keep justifying that move - they’re talking their book. Why else wouldn't they?
I kept my TSLA. I've been justifying that move with what I think is rational thought, and I've even recommended a hedge for the no-deal case. I'm talking my book too.
Disingenuousness lives on both sides. Conviction posts. "Just merge" letters. "I already rotated and I'm sleeping fine." Same game. Different jersey.
Before you commit to anyone's idea, ask what they already own and what they need to be true. Perspective and incentives beat vibes every time.
If their timeline only works if their bag wins, you're not getting advice. You're getting a pitch.
Don't outsource your brain. Not to them. Not to me.
Elon recused himself from $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX special committees.
That does not mean he disappeared.
Formally he's out of the room as a conflicted party. Independent directors talk to independent directors. Kabuki dance, as he put it.
Practically?
He's still there.
He already said a merger is a "good idea" in public. His preferences are known and SPCX's own filing says any deal still needs controlling shareholder approval. That's Elon at ~80%+ voting power on that side.
So the SPCX committee can negotiate. He still has the final yes / no.
They won't (and shouldn't) take ratio instructions from him in the meetings. The process has to look independent, especially with SolarCity still in the rearview.
They will price the deal knowing what Elon will accept on the SPCX side and what TSLA retail, insiders and institutions need for a passing vote.
Elon has no seat at the table but he's still the last signature that matters.
That's why eagerness with no floor from our side still matters. The open letters. The "just merge" posts. He doesn't need a memo to hear it.
Why does $TSLA trade at a discount to $SPCX?
Because SpaceX is the offerer.
Elon doesn’t need a shareholder vote on that side. He approves it with his controlling voting power.
Tesla is the company being offered the deal and the one being offered generally gets the premium.
So the market hasn’t mispriced TSLA. That discount (market cap spread) is the implied premium from the SPCX offer waiting on a real ratio to be signed.
Unpopular take.
A public “merge already” letter with no ratio ask can read as weakness.
Not to $TSLA’s special committee. To them it’s cover. Retail will show up for a vote.
To $SPCX / Elon’s side it can look different. He controls that table. Eager TSLA sellers with no floor sound like "please take us" and that makes a softer exchange ratio easier to float.
Turnout without a clear ask is noise. To the other side it looks like an open door. Or worse, desperation.
Turnout with a merger of equals / real ratio floor is leverage.
Just my 2 cents. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Best to play devil’s advocate when the exchange ratio is on the line.
TESLA/SPACEXSI
MERGE ALREADY!!
The merger is the clear will of Tesla shareholders. In just 24 hours THOUSANDS signed The Joint Shareholder Letter to the Board/Special committee in support of a Tesla/SpaceX merger.
Tesla shareholders are a force:
Together we represent a staggering 11.3 MILLION Tesla shares. Unreal. To put that in context, that is more than HSBC or BNP or Citibank or RBC or Ark.
Let’s keep moving up the list! The letter will close later today to mail to the Board ASAP. Share the link everywhere. SIGN NOW!!! @TeslaBoomerMama
$TSLA $SPCX
surveymonkey.com/r/mergealre…
Hunter does a great job of explaining why a $600-$700 “forward premium” for $TSLA in a $SPCX deal is the wrong frame.
Those numbers only make sense if you’re selling TSLA’s future growth for cash. You’re not.
At today’s market price plus ~30% premium (a 50/50 ratio), you’re trading into half TSLA growth for half SPCX growth. Faster near-term growth on the SPCX side that can be bought at roughly $0.75 on the dollar by holding TSLA vs what the market currently prices.
That’s not giving away TSLA's growth in a merger. That’s upgrading the entire package you already hold.
Fantasy ratios treat this like an exit. It’s an exchange.
Those premiums operate under a belief they’re trading Tesla’s future growth. They aren’t. They’re trading half the growth in Tesla for half the growth in SpaceX if the current share price and 30% premium is the deal. SpaceX is near universally agreed to have faster near term growth. That’s buying better growth relative to what is currently owned at ~75% of the price.
Jessie switched 25% $TSLA for $SPCX and plans another 25%. That first 25% is a slice. Hitting 50% is already borderline rotation. The replies escalate past him.
In-thread:
@bobbydownes shifted all TSLA → SPCX
@McJohnnymac went 50/50, then all in SPCX
@killtonyfan out of TSLA completely, now in SPCX
Plus a pile of “I did similar / exactly the same.”
A slice of TSLA against no-deal or a worse ratio is a probability hedge. Fine. That’s your “what if the merger never happens” case.
Dumping all your TSLA into SPCX before anything is signed only looks smart if there’s no deal - that’s a big if.
If a real ratio clears then you already paid today’s market price. You already gave up the gap premium (currently ~30% at a 50/50 ask) and you gave up the TSLA vote that actually matters.
Hold the shares. Keep the vote. Let the merger hand you the SPCX side at a discount. That’s the clean play.
Fear-buying the polished gem Elon has been selling of late while you torch the undervalued TSLA position is how you lose both sides of the trade.
I have been holding $TSLA since 2019. I did not think of adding SpaceX until recently. Based on what I have heard from Elon and the management team over the last two call, I have now started to shift part of my $TSLA portfolio into $SPCX. Switched 25% and will switch another 25% in the next few weeks. I could have waited for the merger but who knows how long it will take and in the mean time the $SPCX revenue guidance for 2027-2028 seems significant & realistic. It will take $TSLA a few more years to scale RT and Optimus.
I did some back of the envelope math for SpaceX revenue for 2028-29. AI companies (frontier labs) are monetizing 1GW at $60-$100 Billion according to Gavin Baker. So 5 GW (internal use) by SpaceX could generate between $300-$500 Billion ARR runrate from Grok/Cursor/Grok Bot by YE 2027. This is in addition to 13 GW planned for data center capacity to be rented by YE 2027. Assume this gets monetized at $40 Billion a year, resulting in $500+ ARR run rate by YE 2027 for the data center business alone. Then you can tack on Starlink and the launch business. Imo it is possible for SpaceX to get to $500+ Billion in revenue in 2028 and $1+ Trillion in 2029 (without space data centers). With 6-12 month payback period, this appears to be a great business; very high margin. I also assume that if they are planning to launch 100 GW satellite annually by the end of the decade, they are seeing a lot of AI compute demand. The party will eventually end, but we seem to be in the 1st inning of a 9 inning baseball game. NFA
The $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX merger has me a lot more active on X lately. Not for engagement theater but because I’m watching people fear-buy SpaceX and sell Tesla to do it.
That trade has a real cost. Large holders pay capital gains to get out of TSLA. They give up their vote on the actual deal and they pay up into what’s being sold as the sure thing.
I get the psychology. Holding TSLA feels like they need the merger to work while buying SPCX feels like they own the destination either way, so they rotate and sleep better.
If the merger vote passes and fully clears every hurdle then a lot of those same people who swapped into the “sure thing” are going to be pissed.
Why?
Because if the ratio lands near 50/50 then the people who stayed in TSLA get that gap as an immediate premium at signing. The ones who already paid up into SPCX won't be getting that premium, obviously, and in fact it'll go the other way. Offers tend to give a little back. This means SPCX will immediately trade a bit lower.
So the panic swap buys comfort now but can leave them on the expensive side of the exact deal they were chasing.
Same destination. Worse entry. No vote.
At the end of the day it’s their call. Hold all TSLA, sell a slice to hedge a no-deal or rotate the entire stack. Completely up to them.
I’m posting so anyone making that kind of move at least runs the deeper thought process first. Moves this size need rational thought, not emotion.
Case in point. Check out all those replies.
xitter.cf/JessieChimni/status/21…
I have been holding $TSLA since 2019. I did not think of adding SpaceX until recently. Based on what I have heard from Elon and the management team over the last two call, I have now started to shift part of my $TSLA portfolio into $SPCX. Switched 25% and will switch another 25% in the next few weeks. I could have waited for the merger but who knows how long it will take and in the mean time the $SPCX revenue guidance for 2027-2028 seems significant & realistic. It will take $TSLA a few more years to scale RT and Optimus.
I did some back of the envelope math for SpaceX revenue for 2028-29. AI companies (frontier labs) are monetizing 1GW at $60-$100 Billion according to Gavin Baker. So 5 GW (internal use) by SpaceX could generate between $300-$500 Billion ARR runrate from Grok/Cursor/Grok Bot by YE 2027. This is in addition to 13 GW planned for data center capacity to be rented by YE 2027. Assume this gets monetized at $40 Billion a year, resulting in $500+ ARR run rate by YE 2027 for the data center business alone. Then you can tack on Starlink and the launch business. Imo it is possible for SpaceX to get to $500+ Billion in revenue in 2028 and $1+ Trillion in 2029 (without space data centers). With 6-12 month payback period, this appears to be a great business; very high margin. I also assume that if they are planning to launch 100 GW satellite annually by the end of the decade, they are seeing a lot of AI compute demand. The party will eventually end, but we seem to be in the 1st inning of a 9 inning baseball game. NFA
A hedge and a rotation are not the same trade.
Sell a slice of $TSLA against a no-deal outcome?
That’s a probability bet and that's fine.
Dump all of your TSLA for $SPCX before the ratio locks?
You’re not hedging. The spread is ~30% today and it’ll swing day-to-day. If 50/50 is the final ratio then that gap is your discount into the merger but only from the TSLA side. Pay up now swapping fully into SPCX and you lose the major discount opportunity and your vote.
Same destination, worse entry.
Best reason to hold $TSLA into a $SPCX merger?
If it clears a 50/50 ratio then the current ~30% spread closes and you get SpaceX exposure cheaper than buying SPCX outright today. Same destination. Lower entry.
Ratio locks at signing. Every SPCX run-up after that rides on the TSLA shares you kept.
Sell TSLA for SPCX and lose the discount.
About to call it a night. Worked hard today in endless $TSLA 🤝 $SPCX merger threads with you all.
Hope I'm making sense and adding value. If the back-and-forth helped clarify the ratio fight then that was the whole point.
Feel free to show your support by subscribing. No pressure, obviously. xitter.cf/ChrisDungeon/creator-s…
5:1 ... 7:1 then 8:1?
$TSLA and $SPCX trade within ~30% of each other today. A fair 50/50 already implies roughly a 30% markup from here. That is the ambitious ask.
5:1 isn't a negotiation opener. It's a different solar system. At current SPCX value that kind of ratio implies a Tesla worth several times SpaceX, while the market has them in the same ballpark every single day.
Long-term holders deserve a fair split, not a fantasy number that guarantees the special committee never clears it and the deal dies.
The gap at signing is the entire game. The gap today is ~30%. Let's be a little more realistic going forward.
I’ll have the conversation beginning at 5:1 which is about $600 bucks. In reality, I think the number should be minimum 7:1 and optimally it should be 8:1.
Elon stepped on the stock many times. He has promised and not delivered. He asked us to trust him with the comp package. He said the start should be trading at $1000 by now. Worst, he can say what he wants, but he has clearly neglected Tesla. He diverted resources away from Tesla to build SpaceX and he diverted xAI which was supposed to be in Tesla to SpaceX.
If he wants his space fantasy, that’s fine by me. Pay me a rich premium for holding for so long and you can have my shares.
"In no scenario is holding $TSLA better" is a bold thing to say right before I give you three.
Number 3 is the one nobody's talking about.
1. Merger clears at a fair ratio. Your TSLA converts into the combined company and you get $SPCX exposure without ever selling a share.
2. The ratio locks at signing. Every SPCX run-up after that rides along on your TSLA shares. You capture the upside you think only SPCX holders get.
3. You get it at a discount. TSLA trades ~30% below SPCX today. At a 50/50 deal that spread closes and you just bought SPCX exposure 30% cheaper than everyone piling into SPCX right now. Same destination, lower entry.
Even "SpaceX obliterates Tesla" helps the holder. A wider gap means a bigger markup to reach fair.
The only way to lose is to panic-sell the low and hand your TSLA shares and your vote to whoever held.
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