Sci-Tech editor for @DefenseOne. Spies, AIs and the future(s). signal https://xitter.cf/t.co/e6TjpPddhb
The trough of disillusionment
Joined March 2009
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Patrick Tucker retweeted
Patrick Tucker brings a forward-looking perspective to the conversations shaping technology, defense and security at GSF 2026.
@DefTechPat
#GSF2026 #GSECforum
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️
Senior Kremlin officials reaffirmed Russian support for Iran and explicitly defined the United States as Russia’s long-term adversary, despite the recent unilateral US concession to Moscow – offering Russia a diesel export waiver.
Former Commander of the Ukrainian 60th Ingulets Separate Mechanized Brigade Major Dmytro Rohozyuk became the acting commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps (AC) while Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi continues to command Ukraine’s Center Group of Forces (GoF) in Donetsk’s Fortress Belt.
Russia launched 165 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukrainian forces advanced east of Sumy City, and Russian forces advanced south of Orikhiv.
MORE: Ukrainian forces continue to face in-motion speed restrictions to SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) that limit Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian piston engine-driven and jet-powered strike drones.
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Defense Technologies Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov stated on October 19 that the 160 kilometers per hour (around 100 miles per hour) in-motion speed restrictions to Ukraine’s satellite internet service as part of the Starshield package remain in place.
Beskrestnov emphasized that the Starshield in-motion speed restrictions disrupt data transmission to Ukrainian drones used to intercept Russian piston engine-driven Geran drones since the helicopters fly faster than 160 kilometers per hour. Beskrestnov noted that the Starshield speed restrictions limit Ukraine’s jet-powered interceptor drones.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 19 that Ukraine continues to experience speed restrictions on Starlink and Starshield services in various sectors of the frontline that undermine Ukraine’s frontline logistics, intermediate-range strikes, and counter-drone air defense operations.
Starshield is a more secure, jam-resistant, and military-oriented version of the Starlink satellite network that SpaceX designed for government use, while Starlink serves civilian and commercial purposes. Ukrainian forces do not have access to Starshield or any other Starlink services over Russian territory, as SpaceX has geographically restricted Ukraine’s access to within Ukraine’s international borders.
Data from Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) between July 1, 2026, and October 19, 2026, indicates that the Starshield in-motion speed restriction, which Ukrainian forces first reported on October 14, has significantly degraded Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign targeting primarily Russian logistics across the frontline. ⬇️
Patrick Tucker retweeted
To Subvert the State: The Ecosystem of Russian Active Measures - Oleksandr Danylyuk and I have just published a book through @RUSI_org on the forms and methods used by the Russian Special Services to manipulate politics abroad: routledge.com/To-Subvert-the…
Patrick Tucker retweeted
MORE: Ukrainian forces continue to face in-motion speed restrictions to SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) that limit Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian piston engine-driven and jet-powered strike drones.
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Defense Technologies Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov stated on October 19 that the 160 kilometers per hour (around 100 miles per hour) in-motion speed restrictions to Ukraine’s satellite internet service as part of the Starshield package remain in place.
Beskrestnov emphasized that the Starshield in-motion speed restrictions disrupt data transmission to Ukrainian drones used to intercept Russian piston engine-driven Geran drones since the helicopters fly faster than 160 kilometers per hour. Beskrestnov noted that the Starshield speed restrictions limit Ukraine’s jet-powered interceptor drones.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 19 that Ukraine continues to experience speed restrictions on Starlink and Starshield services in various sectors of the frontline that undermine Ukraine’s frontline logistics, intermediate-range strikes, and counter-drone air defense operations.
Starshield is a more secure, jam-resistant, and military-oriented version of the Starlink satellite network that SpaceX designed for government use, while Starlink serves civilian and commercial purposes. Ukrainian forces do not have access to Starshield or any other Starlink services over Russian territory, as SpaceX has geographically restricted Ukraine’s access to within Ukraine’s international borders.
Data from Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) between July 1, 2026, and October 19, 2026, indicates that the Starshield in-motion speed restriction, which Ukrainian forces first reported on October 14, has significantly degraded Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign targeting primarily Russian logistics across the frontline. ⬇️
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 30, 2026: Operation Vivaldi and other Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts in the Oleksandrivka and Kupyansk directions in 2026 have enabled Ukraine to contest the operational initiative across the frontline, virtually halting Russian advances. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 122 square kilometers between September 1, 2026, and October 16, 2026, and seized about 100 square kilometers since January 1, 2026.
Biletskyi reported on October 19 that Operation Vivaldi degraded the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]), which was part of the Russian contingent previously operating from a bridgehead on the right (western) bank of the Zherebets River, to the extent that the division effectively ceased to exist as an organized military force.
Russian forces will have to reconstitute the 144th Motorized Rifle Division for any future offensive operations in the Lyman direction, which will impose further constraints on already costly Russian force generation. Russia has been facing increased combat losses since Summer 2026, with Russian forces losing over 40,000 killed and wounded in several months. Russia’s voluntary recruitment force generation system that relies on contract recruitment has become increasingly costly, and as average contract prices have significantly risen since 2022, to the point that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s is reportedly reluctantly considering ordering another unpopular involuntary reservist call-up. (1/2)
Patrick Tucker retweeted
You can donate here to help protect Ukrainians from Russian drone attacks. Please do so if you can.
u24.gov.ua/sky-defense
Patrick Tucker retweeted
I spoke with Marco Rubio @SecRubio, and it was a substantive conversation – focused on the issues that matter. I am grateful for his readiness to help and his clear position. First, ballistic missile interceptors, which are needed to protect lives. Second, early warning of Russian ballistic missile attacks, which is vital. Third, the situation with Starlink/Starshield, which needs to be restored. Of course, all of this comes against the backdrop of our diplomatic efforts to end this horrific war and the constant killing of people. We agreed to get in touch again soon for an update. Thank you, Marco, for the constructive discussion! Thank you to everyone in America who supports fair approaches!
Patrick Tucker retweeted
President Zelenskyy was the only European leader to publicly visit the Gulf States during Epic Fury while offering help with air defense; Ukraine is giving us an incredible amount of knowledge that’s improving our own capabilities (as per the Trump Army). And it’s destroying the military of our one of our chief rivals who seeks our harm.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
IDEAS: The lack of a shared lexicon is undermining responsible AI-military integration | We need a common way to talk about military AI—across services, agencies, and indeed, the world. buff.ly/pqxMV9b
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Petraeus: Ukraine is killed and wounded 46,000 in the past month alone, while Russia recruits a little over 30,000.
When Starlink was completely shut down, Ukrainian front-line commanders texted me that they were losing control of their formations. 1/
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Those who preach peace through capitulation won't tell you what russian occupation means.
russians occupied Izyum for less than 6m.
After liberation, we found mass graves of 447 ppl. Most of them were civilians — 215 women, 194 men and 5 children. Many bodies had signs of violent death.
This is what people with proud 'Christian' in their bios are pushing Ukraine for.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Russian Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE-X36 (providing Ukraine military support) are now in perfect sync with each other. The Russian military satellite is intentionally stalking and tracking the Western radar satellite. Keeping a satellite "bumper-to-bumper" in this manner allows Russia to intercept or jam data transmissions, physically inspect Western technology, or quickly pivot to execute a kinetic or non-kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) attack with very little warning or fuel expenditure.
Kosmos 2612 executed a series of highly precise, fuel-heavy maneuvers to force itself into a "coplanar" orbit—matching ICEYE-X36's exact altitude (~555 km), speed, and inclination (~97.8°). The ICEYE-X36 satellite is giving the Ukraine military support.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
🇱🇹 BREAKING: Lithuania says an attempt was made overnight to set fire to a company storing Starlink communications equipment used by Ukraine, in an incident Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius has linked to Russia’s suspected hybrid warfare campaign against Europe.
The attempted arson took place at around 2 a.m. According to Sinkevičius, the company had already been warned by Lithuanian security services about possible attacks, prompting it to strengthen security at the site. The attempt was ultimately prevented, and incendiary liquids were found at the scene in containers ranging from 3 to 5 litres, as well as a 10-litre canister.
The company supports nine Starlink satellite antennas used by Ukraine, making the facility relevant to communications supporting Kyiv.
Lithuanian officials have confirmed that the incident is under investigation. Police Commissioner General Arūnas Paulauskas said officers worked through the night collecting evidence and examining the scene. No suspects have been detained so far, and the company’s operations were not disrupted. Any damage is believed to be minimal.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
MORE: Trump’s October 16 Executive Order does not support Trump’s stated foreign policy objectives of ending the war in Ukraine and will only enable Russia to continue financing and protracting the war in Ukraine without any proper incentives that may force Russia to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2026: It remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces can use SpaceX’s low-earth orbit satellite communication technology (Starlink and Starshield) to intercept Russian jet-powered drones as of October 17.
More Key Takeaways:
The Ukrainian military officially refuted Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov's exaggerated battlefield claims from October 16.
US President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order on the night of October 16 that waives key sanctions, restrictions, and tariff provisions against Russia from the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act – a decision that will help Russia finance and protract the war in Ukraine.
Polish authorities warn that Russia may escalate its sabotage attempts and provocations against Polish logistics infrastructure, likely in an attempt to disrupt the transportation of Western aid to Ukraine during Winter 2026-2027.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Kramatorsk and Russian forces recently advanced north of Kostyantynivka.
Russia launched 332 drones and an unspecified number of missiles and Banderol/Dan-T loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight. (1/2)
Patrick Tucker retweeted
The verified record of Russia's crimes in Ukraine: case files, UN statements, fact-checks, sanctions, the cost of the war, and a calendar of where Ukraine is on the agenda. Every figure has a source, a date and a tier. Open data, 6 languages. ukraine-evidence.org/?src=x
Patrick Tucker retweeted
"Civilian casualties in Ukraine jumped by 85% in September as Russia increased drone and missile attacks, according to the United Nations.
At least 328 civilians were killed and 2,105 injured in attacks last month, UN human rights monitors said in their monthly report on Friday. It was the highest September total since the start of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, with missiles and drones the main cause of casualties, they said."
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
ukraine.ohchr.org/en/Protect…
Patrick Tucker retweeted
In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Denys Sienik, the top Ukrainian diplomat in Washington, D.C., sent a frantic message to U.S. lawmakers: Ukraine was suddenly facing restrictions on its military-grade Starlink terminals, and he didn’t know why.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Ukrainian company SkyFall has unveiled StarGate, a heavy-lift aerial drone designed to evacuate wounded personnel from frontline positions, - The Associated Press reports
The six-propeller platform features a dedicated medical compartment with a stretcher and is designed to carry a payload of up to 150 kg (331 lb) over a one-way distance of up to 15 km (9.3 miles).
According to the Associated Press, StarGate uses multiple communication channels and AI-assisted functions to operate in environments where GPS signals are unavailable or electronic warfare disrupts communications.
The drone was recently handed over to a Ukrainian combat brigade for evaluation under frontline conditions. SkyFall plans to increase production capacity to up to 1,000 units per month by the end of 2026.
READ: apnews.com/article/ukraine-m…
Source: Associated Press
Patrick Tucker retweeted
Vitaly, Iryna and their 13-year-old son survived on a cup of grain a day in Russian-occupied Oleshky. They escaped along a mined road. Some 1,700 civilians remain trapped.
When we debate occupied territory in Ukraine, we are really talking about occupied people. Russia’s illegal occupation is robbing Ukrainians of their freedom, dignity and basic security. Their lives are not bargaining chips.
washingtonpost.com/world/202…
Patrick Tucker retweeted
COSCO, a Chinese-military company and one of the world’s largest shippers, is using its vessels to conduct espionage operations near U.S. coastlines.
Select Committee Chairman @RepMoolenaar, @RepRickCrawford, and @RepCarlos sent a letter to @DHSGov Secretary Markwayne Mullin urging him to review and revoke COSCO Shipping’s privileges of receiving fewer inspections at American ports.
Patrick Tucker retweeted
NEW: Ukrainian forces reportedly regained unrestricted access to Starshield on October 15, following in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield communications network over Ukraine.
Other Key Takeaways:
High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that there is and was no energy ceasefire agreement, rejecting any meaningful concept of a ceasefire proposal.
Ukrainian forces struck six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers at the Borisoglebsk Military Airfield in Voronezh Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15.
Likely Russian drones struck four civilian vessels in the Black Sea, including two commercial tankers in Romanian territorial waters on October 14 and 15.
Ukrainian forces likely struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15. Russia launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 drones against Ukraine overnight on October 14 to 15 and 138 drones during the day on October 15.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kupyansk and southwest of Orikhiv.
