Medicore Class B Chess Player, OK Bowler, Defender of the Conservative Cause, but prefer my music Progressive.
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Joined January 2016
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Here is a recap song thread of all the Florida Politics songs created in case you missed any. I'm including @NateSilver538 @Garrett_Archer @JohnRSamuelsen @RalstonReports @VoteHub if you polling guys want more insight into what's happening in FL.
While FL tends to do it's own thing compared to the National Trend, people are still pretty pissed off here in regards to what happened during the GOP Primary. If you remember, the FL GOP canceled debates and basically coronated Byron Donalds for the GOP nomination. There was lots of apathy to Donalds even among the hardcore MAGA base so much so that despite not getting any significant endorsements, FL Lt. Gov Jay Collins (appointed by @RonDeSantis last August) still got 25% of the vote while Donalds failed to secure a majority.
The question that arose is would the race have been more competitive had DeSantis gotten actively involved & endorsed his LG. But it gets way worse. Inside the DeSantis Comms shop, the staff ran a brutal smear campaign against the Lt. Gov. Everything from abandoning his oldest son, threatening to shoot a staffer in the head, his wife running burner accounts to attack the Governor, being Anti-1A. All without proof. All truly sick stuff. And the Governor never said a word about it. Tack on how they forced Kevin Guthrie out after he joined the Collins ticket for what amounted to less than 24 hours, and you're witnessing a level of animosity that rivals the hatred Rick Scott has for DeSantis. No one knows why but the best guesses are they blame Jay's running for Casey deciding not to run, but close insiders say she never intended to run regardless.
So that's why FL could be potentially close this cycle. And to bring awareness to what went on I started creating memes & songs about it. For my efforts, DeSantis' staff doxed me, not the first time they've done that to critics out here. The goal of these songs has been the same, for Ron to answer what the Hell happened & why he went mute on the LG & damaged his own legacy & WH Hopes in the process.
There's a different style theme for many of these songs I'm sure someone will find one they like. But just wanted to provide insight in case you wonder if FL can actually flip this cycle given the huge R Advantage from 2022.
Our First Song is Pri-Mar-EE Madness - Tells the tale in Atlanta/Miami Rap style
Gee @RonDeSantis people tried to tell you this during the '26 Primary when there was still a chance to nominate a better choice (i.e. your sitting Lt Gov that YOU appointed).
You know why they're lethargic. It's isn't rocket science.
Can't wait for your tell-all book.
Dear @byrondonalds @ByronWarRoom, it seems like you guys could easily win this Election & get GOP turnout numbers back to normal if he'd just cut an ad like this. Just Sayin' #FireMike
@TJ_Pittinger @R_Barnes407 @dannykanell @TomFornelli @IraSchoffel @JaysonFras @BudElliott3
🤖 Made with AI
Oh how about this one?
@RationalPurview @KickboxerEsq @EllenFL214 @mheinz16 @MTPerry_Powell @KateW1970
@LivemusicCJ @BrianHJacobson @GreenspansWager
@GaryLynnB
Life comes at you fast, it seems. I wonder what changed. I can't find my report but I predicted she'd start shaming people into not voting for Donalds all the way back in 2025.
@RationalPurview @KickboxerEsq @EllenFL214 @mheinz16 @MTPerry_Powell @KateW1970 @LivemusicCJ @BrianHJacobson @GreenspansWager @GaryLynnB
Prog is hard to do in SUNO. This version of "Wish You'd Endorse" was the best one after 30 attempts but the Melody & Hook were just too good to not use.
Obviously the Album cover is a spoof of Pink Floyd's "Wish You Were Here", but it makes perfect sense for this song. A reminder to our pollster friends why Florida is a tilt race at R+7-8.
@RationalPurview @GreenspansWager @LivemusicCJ @BrianHJacobson @EllenFL214 @KateW1970 @Danielstilwell @GaryLynnB @mheinz16 @Real_miss_Jodie @MTPerry_Powell @TheyCallMeNans @RonDeSantis @CaseyDeSantis @ByronDonalds @davidjollyfl @ZacharyDonnini @NateSilver538 @JaysonFras
Dear MAGA Inc grifters (i.e. @ClayTravis & others)
When you're reporting FL Early Voting information please make sure to show the early vote tallies along with the percentages. Simply showing % without vote information is deceptive. Clay's a lawyer so he should know better.
Yes, the GOP had a good day today (R+17.5 at peak). But what this actually means is they finally erased the statewide deficit with Registered Democrats who've early voted after nearly a week of early voting. The Dems had a 9K lead this morning. The GOP picked up about 25K or so and now lead by 17K.
This sounds good. But there's now 6 days left of Early Voting (4 Weekdays & Saturday with a larger Sunday dropoff from the few larger counties that do an extra day).
If the GOP averages a net 30K for each of the next 5 days and 15K on Sunday, that will put them at around 180,000 registration edge right before Election Day. This sounds great until you realize this number is supposed to be north of 300K.
Election Day itself might pad an extra 400-425K party advantage. Again, sounds great until you realize this number's usually north of 600K.
So the GOP might only have a 600K-700K party vote advantage for the entire FL Electorate. And since we're on pace for about 7.8 Million voters this equates to somewhere in the R+7-9 range.
That would be disastrous for the GOP and anyone telling you otherwise is lying. It would be a true tilt race and while Byron might survive there's a good chance many down ballot don't.
Some people think Pink Floyd's "DSOTM", "WYWH", or "The Wall" is their best work. Nope, it's earlier than that.
Saucerful of Secrets is the best and the title track is one of the greatest instrumentals. There's no bad version of this song whether from the original album, Ummagumma, Pompeii, etc.
Play this at Halloween right up there with Genesis' "The Waiting Room" from The Lamb.
youtube.com/watch?v=F2r_6Ffd…
Folks, from the Data I can see FL is Projecting:
65% Democratic Turnout
60% Republican Turnout
Overall Turnout (Including NPA/Oth): 57%
Approximately 7,800,000 votes
Electorate:
(R) 43% - 3,354,000
(D) 35.31 - 2,754,000
(O) 21.69 - 1,692,000
This is Pick 'Em Territory. Where it comes down to the margins on how well the candidates retain their Registered Voters and how the NPA Splits. But if you told the Democrats FL would by R+7-8 vs R+11-12 they would have gladly taken it.
I still cannot believe the GOP Reg voter advantage will only be around 600,000 once all voting is complete, but that's where it looks like it's headed if you assume the GOP get's at least 30-50K net voters each weekday (Mon-Fri) it'll be maybe around a 200,000 edge by Election Day and then tack on maybe another 400,000. This total is well below the 1,100,000 that it should be given the Registration advantage. The same 500,000 or so voters missing during the Primary appear to (at least for now) still be MIA for the Midterms.
It's assumed the Dems will win NPA pretty substantially (~20 or more). Even in polls Donalds has led he doesn't break the low 40's. Something like a 59-40 split seems somewhat probable.
While Democrats have been fewer in voting numbers, they've been more Uniform when they do vote. Both Gillum & Crist got 95% of those Democrats that voted. There's no reason to think Jolly won't at least equal that in this political environment. But, one caveat. Earlier polls seem to indicate there may be significant AA Democrat crossover to Donalds. The average crossover vote of Registered Democrats voting Republican has averaged around 5% the last two Midterms. Some polls say Donalds was doubling this because of 20% AA Support. Strange I've never seen this materialize for other AA Gubernatorial candidates like Ken Blackwell, Lynn Swann, John James, etc. But if Donalds actually peels 10% of Dems, he'll win easily.
But what about Registered Republican crossover to Democrat? It was nonexistent in 2022 b/c DeSantis retained an incredible 97% of R's and Crist only got 2%. Gillum actually fared better in a closer election getting 7% as DeSantis only retained 92% of Rs the first time.
Most people agree Byron's not touching the 97% number. He may not even hit DeSantis' 92% from 2018. Before 2018 when crossover was a little more common and both parties getting double digits the retention norm was around 87-89% (Rick Scott, Republican Crist).
I still think 90%-91% is most likely for Byron. Jolly may pick up an extra 1-2% like 7-8% but I don't see double digits as I think some R's will vote for Libertarian or another candidate first.
So given all these numbers, where does this electorate take us? See the below image. Just a slight change in any of the categories changes the race one way or the other.
Hence, now why it appears Trump is coming back next Friday.
College Football has a serious Sports Betting & Point shaving issue. It's the only thing that makes these scores in the past few weeks make any sense.
Lol, why do people do this?
Other than when I went to vote I have seen ZERO signs or bumper stickers from anyone. Most people have realized other people are crazy and don't want their personal property destroyed.
I call BS on this story below.
This just happened: Parked in front of Office Depot in red Lakeland FL. Couple gets out of car next to me. Man says "David Jolly is a good man", woman says "we like your bumper sticker". I said "I have an extra, would you like it?" They said "Oh YES, thank you"
@davidjollyfl 😎
Prediction:
After 6 Days of In-Person Early Voting, the GOP will finally take the lead statewide in Registered Party Voters who have voted. Right now Dems lead by around 10K but expect that to flip to a GOP lead of 10-15K by the end of the day (slightly less than the 30K average due to Dems keeping a little more pace on weekends).
MAGA Cult will fire "BREAKING" BS when it happens, but the real story is how long it took to flip to this. The raw vote advantage is on pace for less than 240,000 by the end of EV on 11/1 when it should be well over 300,000. This is shaping up to be an R+9 Electorate with only a 700,000 Registered Advantage as D's are turning out a 5% Participation Rate better than R's (65-60%) with overall turnout set around 57%.
Sumter will go 68-30 for Donalds.
But 68 is the Baseline. Ron got 73 back in 2022 the Averages across all the other previous elections including Trump has been 67-68.
So if Donalds only gets 65 here or Jolly gets more than 32 that would be a sign of Dem overperformance.
Donalds over 70% and he's gonna win Statewide by more than 3. Donalds under 68 and the State gets close.
Sumter should see about 76,000 total County Votes with Donalds winning about 51,000 of them and Jolly about 23,500. But these are just baselines.
Early votes should begin rolling in from all 67 counties by 10 a.m. The county I’m most focused on today is Sumter. Sumter represents somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% of “Villagers” in The Villages. Dashboard: freshtake.vote/2026G/index.p…
This is the loser that wants to give illegals Drivers Licenses in FL. Once DeSantis is out they will try to shove that back through. And they'll try to give Wilton Supreme Immigration Authority in the State again.
JUST IN: Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson told the Fort Myers rally crowd that Florida has cut its state debt from $25 billion to $8 billion.
He said a Byron Donalds administration would pay off the rest, and he contrasted Florida with New York.
@WiltonSimpson: "The Byron Donalds administration will finish paying off the state of Florida's debt."
"The state of New York has over $170 billion of debt to our eight. That's what's at stake when we make these votes."
This isn't passing because it needed the same vigorous education/campaigning that A3&A4 from 2022 got? @RonDeSantis wasn't willing to put in the work to get it across the finish line.
Non-Homeowners/Non-Homesteads view it as no incentive to them & that they'd be picking up the burden. And local Govt's have been scaring voters that things like emergency services would disappear.
Without the aggressive pushback against this there was no way this was gonna get 60%.
Occam's Razor:
The candidates in the other close states thinks he's more of a drag than help. FL looks more likely to produce R wins so he can say at the end of the election they only won b/c of him & blame candidates in other states who lose that it's b/c they didn't want his help.
Thoughts @RationalPurview @GreenspansWager @BrianHJacobson @LivemusicCJ
Went to vote at Freedom Library this morning. Busy but not a long wait. Nothing but boomers might have been 1 person under 30 there
Not one of my better blitz games, but the checkmate I delivered in this game was awesome (I got called a Madman, lol). Also, this is the music I put on when playing blitz.
Rule of Thumb: Don't take my free Rook on F1, it won't end well.
@AGHamilton29 @DavidAFrench