Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella) profile picture

Mario Vanella

@MarioVanella

Global Chief Economist at ORC, Dubai. RT ≠ endorsement. Opinions are my own

Joined July 2019
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Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)Photo by Mario Vanella (@MarioVanella)
60 years ago today on the 27th October 1962, human life on Earth came the closest it has ever come to a terrible ending. Everyone alive today owes their life to this handsome devil, and most of us don't even know his name. Let's change that - a thread 🧵
Image from Dr David Robert Grimes (@drg1985)
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This is huge. Don't know how this will end. Henan bank is NOT the only one that is having problems with liquidity. All four Chinese banks are having the same issue. Some depositors found they can save and can NOT withdraw money with their bank cards. #bankrun #China #CCP
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Alex Mas (@AMLabEcon) profile picture
Alex Mas
@AMLabEcon14 Jun 2021
Normally I would not be posting personal developments on this website, but in this case I have a pressing concern. My dad, Spanish economist Andreu Mas-Colell, is dealing with an incredibly difficult and unjust situation. 1/
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Industry's problems go FAR beyond lack of comparative expertise. Most institutions "offering" #China analysis are wholly compromised by their need to appease Beijing for larger profit goals, be it mkt access or merely ⬆️slices of priv wealth, asset mgmt or underwriting pies 1/6
Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) profile pictureMichael Pettis
@michaelxpettis22 Aug 2020
I'd say that when it comes to the economy, you shouldn't trust China experts or even China "specialists". They are too narrow. Only people who understand a variety of economies and can put China in some kind of context are likely to get it right.
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Mario Vanella retweeted
Alberto Gallo (@macrocredit) profile picture
Alberto Gallo
@macrocredit19 Jul 2020
How much have EU countries paid or received from the EU? Eighteen years of data show the money has been flowing from West to East, not North to South (Source: ec.europa.eu/budget/graphs/r…)
Image from Alberto Gallo (@macrocredit)
Image from Alberto Gallo (@macrocredit)
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Economics is indeed struggling with inflation theory. Monetary aggregates and monetarism have been correctly abandoned. Domestic slack explanations (the Phillips curve) have been under attack but are still a bit alive...1/n
Roger E. A. Farmer (@farmerrf) profile pictureRoger E. A. Farmer
@farmerrf18 Jul 2020
I’m pleased they’re finally listening @TimDuy @DavidBeckworth static1.squarespace.com/stat… @dandolfa @GeorgeSelgin @warwickecon @warwicknewsroom @ojblanchard1 @RameshPonnuru @VMRConstancio @RebuildMacro @NIESRorg @jagjit_chadha @angusarmstrong8
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Class: Taxes on stupid rich 101. Open all year long.
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Very good thread
alberto bisin (@albertobisin) profile picturealberto bisin
@albertobisin17 Jun 2020
Interesting discussion these days about various versions of this figure (this one is taken from the NYTimes). 1/n
Image from alberto bisin (@albertobisin)
1/ Two graphs that tell a very important story: pent-up real estate demand rebounded strongly after the lockdown. Considering the logistic of the lockdown, this situation is easily understandable
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2/ Still credit has never been so tight since 2014 (graph), and unemployment will not magically disappear. As a result the demand that has been bottled up until now will be satisfied. In a second moment downward pressure will hit real-estate prices
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Millennials have neen disproportionally affected by the last 3 crisis. This one is no different
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This is Important to follow: 30-day delinquencies on credit card debt (Big jump in retail store cards)
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Mi pare ci sia enorme confusione e che si parli a caso. Ancora. Nonostante tutti i documenti disponibili. Pazzesco
Valerio Valentini (@valentinivaler) profile pictureValerio Valentini
@valentinivaler10 Jun 2020
Mariana Mazzucato boccia il Mes come "problematico" e "recessivo" (anche se non sembra molto aggiornata su ciò che è oggi il Mes). Essendo lei la consulente economica di Palazzo Chigi, dobbiamo dunque concludere che il premier Conte condivide questo giudizio sul Mes? Il PD lo sa?
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This is the kind of stuff that makes me worry
MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) profile pictureMarketWatch
@MarketWatch9 Jun 2020
Warren Buffett is ‘an idiot,’ says investor who claims daytrading is ‘the easiest game I’ve ever played’ on.mktw.net/3fdxQNb
Total decoupling
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Translation: - May unemployment rate stands at 16.3% (not 13.3%) - 4.7 million workers were considered employed, but are in fact unemployed
Joshua Steiner (@HedgeyeFIG) profile pictureJoshua Steiner
@HedgeyeFIG5 Jun 2020
This morning's reported Unemployment Rate appears to be understated by ~300 bps due to BLS classification errors.
Image from Joshua Steiner (@HedgeyeFIG)
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Interesting move but with expected lower demand there is a good chance that Chinese SMEs use this credit in an unproductive way (studies show that incentives to behave in this fashion increase during a crisis). We'll see if that's indeed the case observing the NPLs in 2021
Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) profile pictureTracy Alloway
@tracyalloway3 Jun 2020
China's central bank rolls out a new small business lending program. Interestingly, unlike the PPP, Chinese banks will assume the risks of loans sold under the program and need to repay all of the 400 billion yuan ($56 billion) after a year. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
PBOC Is Trying to Fix China’s Decades-Old Credit Conundrum

PBOC Is Trying to Fix China’s Decades-Old Credit Conundrum

China’s central bank is trying to fix one of the domestic economy’s most intractable problems: Poor access to credit by small companies.

bloomberg.com
China manufacturing PMI slightly above 50. But new export orders was very low, at 35.3. Very sharp decrease from a month ago. Once again, global demand is still weak. #PMI #China
The rise of loss-making companies going public: linkedin.com/feed/update/urn…
Image from Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts)
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Mario Vanella retweeted
Shadi Hamid (@shadihamid) profile picture
Shadi Hamid
@shadihamid30 May 2020
Wow. I didn’t know what to expect. But this is one of the most powerful speeches I’ve seen from a politician in a long time. This is Atlanta mayor @KeishaBottoms. Please give it a listen and share:
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