#BREAKING: First cone is out for potential Tropical Storm #Rafael from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. Here are my thoughts as of Sunday evening and the bottom line: 1. Let's start with the positive. The core and worst part according to the current NHC forecast and majority of models is projected to stay well offshore of the Southwest Florida coast. **That doesn't mean we won't see any impacts!** We would still be on the eastern side of the storm. Main timing for us will be Wednesday, with some lingering into Thursday. We will see better rain chances in the form of outer bands, isolated higher totals in spots. Breezy to occasionally wind conditions, especially along the coast. Higher tides, but to what degree? Depends on how close or far away it gets. Same can be said about the tornado potential. The closer it gets, we would have better ingredients for tornadoes. Farther away, the better. Overall, future Rafael will be manageable for Southwest Florida and not close to the impacts from Hurricanes Ian, Helene and Milton. 2. First up is Jamaica Monday into Tuesday, then Cuba Tuesday into Wednesday. Can't rule out a hurricane in the Caribbean if ingredients come together and that is reflected in the NHC forecast. 3. It will move into the Gulf on Wednesday. The more north it gets in the Gulf, ingredients become less favorable...including higher shear, dry air and cooler waters. These are typical characteristics of November in the Gulf. Most models show weakening if it tries to make landfall in the northern Gulf Coast. If you have vacation or cruise plans from the Caribbean to Florida, make sure to monitor the forecast. I'll continue to keep you updated 24/7 with just the facts without the hype. Thanks everyone!