
Senior Meteorologist PIX 11 Morning News 7AM -10AM WATCH MY DAILY PIX11+ FORECAST HERE: https://xitter.cf/t.co/HfgRDTOFsb @PIX11NEWS @NEWSNATION
New York, NY
Joined March 2010
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EARTHQUAKE REPORTED IN NEW JERSEY THIS MORNING!
DID YOU FEEL IT? 🌎
A magnitude 1.6 #earthquake has been reported near Morristown, NJ, this morning!
Residents reported feeling vibrations, but there are no reports of damage or significant shaking.
THE BIG QUESTION: Was this an isolated event, or could it be a foreshock to something larger? There's no way to know for certain, and most small earthquakes are not followed by larger ones.
We're breaking it all down RIGHT NOW on @PIX11News! 📺
🌬️ CLASSIC OCTOBER GALES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NYC AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS! 🍂🎃
Spooky season is about to feel a little SPOOKIER as a powerful ocean storm delivers some fringe impacts to the Tri-State area!
The biggest headlines will be along the Jersey Shore and Long Island, where gusty winds, rough surf, and elevated coastal water levels will be the main concerns.
The good news? We're still enjoying an INCREDIBLE stretch of classic fall weather, with plenty of sunshine away from the coastal storm!
📺 ON AIR NOW until 10 AM on @PIX11News with a full breakdown of the coastal impacts and what's ahead!
🍂 CLASSIC FALL WEATHER PATTERN… WATCHING AN OCEAN STORM BRINGING FRINGE IMPACTS TO THE COAST! 🌊💨
A beautiful stretch of fall weather is ahead as multiple rounds of high pressure build across the Northeast, effectively BLOCKING a developing ocean storm to our south and east.
While high pressure keeps most of us enjoying sunshine and dry conditions, the storm will still make its presence felt along the coast!
🌬️ WIND: As the offshore storm strengthens, expect increasing northeasterly winds with stronger gusts developing along Long Island and the Jersey Shore by Wednesday.
🌊 SURF & COASTAL FLOODING: A prolonged period of northeast winds will help build seas, enhance surf, and increase the risk of beach erosion and above-normal tides. Ocean County is already under a COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY as water continues to pile up along the shoreline.
☀️ RAINFALL: Here's the GOOD NEWS! I do NOT anticipate any rain from this storm across our area. High pressure remains firmly in control, keeping us dry with plenty of sunshine.
BOTTOM LINE: A classic fall weather setup featuring beautiful conditions inland while the Atlantic gets increasingly agitated. The greatest impacts stay confined to the immediate coastline.
📺 ON TV NOW UNTIL 10 AM with the full breakdown on @PIX11News!
AS FORECASTED THE LINE IS FALLING APART reaching NYC and Long Island… severe weather threat diminishing!
Now comes the cold and biting wind 🥶 @PIX11News
🌩️ MAJOR WEATHER WHIPLASH TODAY! STRONG STORMS, GUSTY WINDS & AN OCTOBER COLD BLAST! 🥶
Today is shaping up to be one of the most dynamic weather days we’ve seen this fall as a MAJOR COLD AIR INTRUSION begins to unfold across the Tri-State area!
🌡️ THE SETUP: Very warm, moisture-rich air will be in place ahead of a powerful cold front. As colder air begins advancing into the region, thunderstorms are expected to erupt, potentially organizing into a squall line moving from northwest to southeast toward the evening commute.
⛈️ SEVERE STORM THREAT: I believe the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms will remain just outside NYC, especially north and west of the city. As the line pushes east toward the five boroughs, I expect the storms to rapidly weaken and become increasingly fragmented.
💨 DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE WIND! Even as the thunderstorms fall apart, gusty showers will continue pushing toward the Jersey Shore and Long Island. Isolated wind gusts of 30–40 MPH remain possible, even in areas that see little thunderstorm activity.
🥶 THEN COMES THE OCTOBER SHOCK! Behind this front, a dramatically colder air mass will take over heading into the weekend. Temperatures will tumble, with overnight lows potentially dropping into the 30s EVEN IN NYC!
We’re essentially going from late summer to a taste of early winter in a matter of HOURS!
@PIX11News!
🚨 MONSTER WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT AHEAD! 🌡️🍂🥶
We’re about to experience THREE SEASONS IN ONE WEEK! Summer warmth will quickly give way to a blustery, almost winter-like chill by Saturday!
🌬️ FRIDAY: Gusty winds and showers sweep through, with a few stronger thunderstorms possible south of #NYC.
🥶 SATURDAY: A dramatic temperature plunge brings a taste of winter! Highs only in the 50s and nights near 40!
From summer warmth to winter coats in a matter of days!
📺 LOTS to break down starting at 7AM on @PIX11News!
James says what a lot of us think
I am sick and tired of people in traditional "broadcast meteorology" posting smiling selfies during the approach of Isaias. Their theory is... "It's all about ME!!"
These nitwits need to spend this week in places like Lenox, Peterman, and Canoe Alabama cutting trees off homes and feeding people.
If you want to be a social media influencer or a model, fine. But stay out of weather. Please.
ISAIAS IS A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE!
Had a question about Florida State University… I feel the landfall is far enough east for FSU to not suffer major impacts as the core of the winds will be confined to areas around #Pensacola
#HurricaneIsaias will make landfall later this evening!
A rough evening ahead for the Gulf Coast! @PIX11News
🚨🌀 BREAKING: ISAIAS EXPLODES INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE!
Hurricane Isaias has rapidly intensified into a MAJOR Category 3 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico! Winds at 120 MPH AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 959MB
LANDFALL IMMINENT: The powerful storm is expected to slam into the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama THIS EVENING, bringing destructive winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rainfall. Inland tornadoes are likely over central Alabama and Mississippi.
A dangerous evening ahead for the Gulf Coast! @PIX11News
🌀 ISAIAS MAKES FINAL APPROACH! CATEGORY 3 STATUS WITHIN REACH AS LANDFALL NEARS TONIGHT!
Hurricane Isaias is lining up for its final approach to Florida’s Emerald Coast, with some continued intensification ahead of landfall tonight.
As anticipated, the storm is strengthening during its final hours over water, NEVER a good scenario for coastal communities. The window for intensification remains open before increasing wind shear begins disrupting the hurricane's circulation and wind field.
The projected track takes Isaias inland toward the Tennessee River Valley, pulling a deep plume of tropical moisture northward into the NYC Tri-State area.
🌧️ LOCAL IMPACTS FOR NYC & THE TRI-STATE
💧 RAINFALL: 2–3 inches over 24 hours, with the heaviest totals along and west of I-95.
💨 WIND GUSTS: 25–35 mph
🌊 STORM SURGE: None expected locally
🚗 FLOODING: Isolated roadway flooding, particularly in poor-drainage and low-lying areas.
⏰ STORM TIMELINE
📍 SUNDAY 1 PM – MONDAY 7 AM
⚠️ HEAVIEST RAIN: Sunday evening into the overnight hours.
BOTTOM LINE: This is primarily a heavy-rain event for the NYC metro area, NOT a major wind event. The biggest concern will be pockets of roadway flooding during the Sunday night period.
I'll continue watching the track and intensity closely, as even subtle adjustments could shift the axis of heaviest rainfall.
📺 ON TV NOW @PIX11News until 10AM
ISAIAS FORMS & ALREADY GETTING LARGE! 🌀
Tropical Storm #Isaias is on its way to becoming a hurricane within the next 12–24 hours. Convection has exploded over the last few hours, and the storm already has a fairly large circulation.
The biggest thing I’m watching now is the low-level center. Isaias likely won’t rapidly intensify until that circulation tightens and there are early signs that process is beginning.
⚠️ INTENSITY CONCERNS:
I remain very suspicious of the intensity forecast over the next 48 hours. There appears to be a window where Isaias could make a serious run at CAT 3+ intensity before increasing wind shear potentially knocks it back down ahead of landfall.
🌧️ WHAT’S IN IT FOR US?
For the Tri-State, my biggest concern is very heavy rain and tropical downpours Sunday into Monday.
A track west of our region would open the door for a massive plume of tropical moisture to surge northward. Right now, 2–3"+ of rain looks very possible, but a slight shift in track especially combined with a slower-moving storm could create a much more problematic flooding scenario.
📺 ON TV NOW with much more through 10AM on @PIX11News.
🌀TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF — HURRICANE THREAT GROWING
Interests from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle need to closely watch this system, with the potential for a strengthening hurricane to come ashore later this week.
Computer models are increasingly hinting at a stronger hurricane prior to landfall, and some intensity guidance suggests the potential for rapid strengthening just before reaching the Gulf Coast.
⚠️ Intensity remains the BIGGEST challenge with this forecast. How strong this storm becomes at landfall could ultimately determine the magnitude of impacts farther north.
On the current track, the remnants are expected to accelerate north and could impact the Tri-State area Sunday night into Monday, potentially bringing impacts to the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. → Philadelphia → New York City.
A stronger Gulf system could mean a stronger system farther north, so this is one we’ll be watching VERY closely over the next several days. 🌀
See you at 7AM on the PIX 11 Morning News with more @PIX11News
WATCHING THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEK FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS UP HERE LATE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK?
The area that historically gives us the MOST trouble is often storms that develop in the western Gulf.
This region can easily become influenced by stronger synoptic features, with northern-slingshotting energy pulling active weather northward. The models likely WON’T show much right now because there’s no defined mid-level circulation for them to latch onto.
However, this is an area of low pressure and disturbed weather that I could easily see lifting up along the Appalachians and producing impactful weather late this weekend into early next week.
A fleeting high over the Southeast combined with a digging shortwave into Texas would put this system on a potentially ideal trajectory toward our area.
👀 The weather is very quiet at home now so this is what I'll be watching. See you on the PIX 11 Morning News at 7AM @PIX11News
Mike Masco retweeted
Something is up with the weather computer modeling. It has not been good. Things were supposed to get better fast with the integration of AI, but that has not been the case over the last few years. And I'm not talking just one model or just the long-range modeling...all of it! Now this might be my perception only. Someone way smarter than me can actually 'run the numbers'. 😁 Even the model that I think has been the 'best' over the last year (Canadian GDPS), did not handle the Nor'Easter very well. It's time to go back to old school, gut feeling forecasting over the winter... ❄️🚂
🌊❄️ NOR’EASTERS GONE WILD THIS FALL/WINTER?
If you’ve been following my thoughts this summer, you know I’ve been leaning toward ABOVE-NORMAL storm activity along the East Coast, fueled by an amped-up southern jet stream. 💨
A lot of that thinking comes back to El Niño and the latest CanSIPS long-range forecast model has a very El Niño-like look.
🌧️ WHAT’S CATCHING MY EYE?
A strong signal for a moisture-rich pattern along the East Coast. That supports the idea of an active storm track with plenty of moisture available for developing coastal storms.
❄️ DOES THAT MEAN BIG SNOW?
Not automatically! Moisture is only one piece of the puzzle. You also need cold air in place, a favorable storm track, and the right timing. Get those ingredients to overlap, and the potential for significant snow increases.
🌡️ THE BIG CHALLENGE:
A busy southern jet can supply the moisture, but it doesn’t guarantee a steady supply of cold air. A storm tracking closer to the coast could bring rain, while a track farther offshore could favor snow—IF enough cold air is available and that will be determined by the status of the AO/NAO (northern latitude blocking)
🎯 MY TAKE:
The potential for an active winter storm pattern has my attention. But forecasting snowfall could be especially difficult because the details that determine rain versus snow often won’t become clear until much closer to each storm.
@PIX11News
NOR’EASTERS ON THE RISE… and the continuation of a lackluster hurricane season. But is it really that quiet? 🤔
We’ve already had 8 named storms! Enough already with the “dead hurricane season” talk!
Those were two of the big topics on today’s PIX11 Forecast Focus — breaking down what’s happening now and what could be ahead.
🎥 Full episode: Link in bio @PIX11News
Mike Masco retweeted
Just awesome to be able to see in person despite the Nor Easter’s rain impacting the region. Peak should be later this week! 🍁🍂
📸 Keene, NY (9/27)
Mike Masco retweeted
Manasquan, NJ high tide this morning coming in from the back bay by the Sea Girt national guard base 🌊
@NWS_MountHolly
@nynjpaweather @AccuRayno @epawawx @MikeMasco @JoeMartWx @JimCantore @accuweather @foxweather @weathernation @weatherchannel @ABC7NYNewsDesk
NOR’EASTER UPDATE: ONE MORE MAJOR PUSH OF WIND & RAIN TO GO! 🌧️💨
As the storm rotates in, expect another round of powerful winds to push into NYC and areas south and east. I also expect another surge of strong winds into the suburbs before conditions finally begin to calm down.
🌊 MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING remains a serious concern tonight as we approach high tide, building on the water already piled up from this morning’s cycle.
Tides will continue to run impressively high into Sunday morning, especially from Barnegat Bay northward along the Jersey Shore and across coastal areas into southern Suffolk County.
@PIX11News










