Nejc Novak

As an investor, you need to be war-gaming these Trump tariffs. Going tit-for-tat on tariffs when you run a trade surplus with the US is like bringing a squirt gun to a Reaper drone fight. No, you won't out-tariff the US if you're more dependent on their market than they are on yours. So the question we should be asking is: How could these nations fight back? The Achilles heel of the US is their capital markets, and the fact that US financial assets have become a de-facto store of value asset for global capital. Foreigners own close to ~$30 Trillion worth of US treasuries, corporate debt, and equities. Europeans pump up the Nasdaq and S&P500 at the expense of the French CAC40 and German DAX. So what happens if Europe responds to future tariffs not by imposing tariffs of their own, but by putting a targeted capital gains tax on all US securities? Imagine European nations give their citizens 6 months to repatriate capital into European assets before a ~25% tax on US assets kicks in. This is pure war-game speculation on my part... But it seems like the best leverage foreign nations have to fight these tariffs. What happens to US equities and bond yields in that scenario? It wouldn't be pretty. And in my opinion, it once again highlights the need for a neutral reserve asset that isn't tied to the fate of any single nation or economic zone. Bitcoin and gold are the only options. One thing is clear: The Trump admin seems to be willing to upend everything to change the status quo. They want to re-shore US manufacturing at any cost. And this is a sea change that has yet to be priced. The markets fear uncertainty. So don't be surprised if we experience some turbulence as investors recalibrate their vision for the future. But long-term, I expect this to be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. The world has just taken one giant step closer towards a new monetary system with a neutral reserve asset. And most investors don't realize it yet.