Tad Jude's campaign videos have a certain cinematic quality that doesn't get talked about enough. Very kino. I wish more candidates had the courage to do something different like this with their content.

We will take him.

If I had to guess, we may get one more set of KSTP/SurveyUSA polls for Minnesota elections sometime between today and 11/01. Their last poll for 2024 dropped on 10/29 and had Harris +8 in MN. True result was Harris +4.24. Their final poll of 2022 also dropped 10/31 and had Walz +8. Final result was Walz +7.66. They nailed it. So, while the final polls from KSTP/SUSA aren't always perfectly accurate, they're usually not far off.

This must've been intense. It's hard to imagine a more perfect liberal suburban voter than the average employee at BCBS MN in Eagan. The company was pushing liberalism and proto-DEI views back in the early Obama era. Credit to Lisa Demuth for showing up and trying to sway a cold audience anyway.

Still crazy how fast the DFL memoryholed this guy for bland, generic Tina Smith. And now he's back to help pull Flanagan over the finish line for his old Senate seat. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Fox News shifted MN CD1 to Lean R. Bigger ouch is shifting CD2 to Solid D. It wasn't going to be that competitive this year, but CD2 could wind up bluer than ever with a harder Left Democrat.

Glad to see someone making the case for Tafoya to Strib's lib Boomer readers. 🤞

Not helping his low IQ image at all.

Pretty sure Trump dropped this "official" Tafoya endorsement today to counter Obama getting behind Peggy Flanagan. Nothing too surprising that will shake up the MN US Senate race. But it should make any less enthusiastic super MAGA holdouts on Tafoya feel more comfortable voting for her.

Pretty clear the Flanagan campaign is progressive turnout maxxing on the final stretch with Seattle ultra leftist Jayapal showing up.

Another heavy hitter endorsement for Peggy Flanagan. Not that unusual since it's just a video vs. a rally or in-person event. Obama endorsed Tina Smith in 2018 too.

Another lesson from Brazil. The question is who gets burned in US prediction markets in another week and a half? Texas might be rough.

His joy, gone. He can only celebrate the wins of distant leftists across the world who didn't clown themselves out of a political career. 🤡

Brazil is a warning to Republicans: Another Democrat trifecta with deeper entrenched legal power could be lights out for the Right. SCOTUS is a thin last line of defense here in a worst case scenario and far from guaranteed.

Notable how the DFL has more heavy hitters dropping into MN for support in the final stretch. This doesn't necessarily mean anything by itself, but it's interesting. Lately we've had: -Bernie Sanders rallying for Peggy Flanagan and Keith Ellison. -Senator Chris Murphy dropping in again for Flanagan. -Hasan Piker infamously planning to rally for Ilhan Omar tomorrow. On the GOP side, John Thune made a brief stop for Michele Tafoya and that's pretty much it.

Decent chance the Upper Midwest defies some of the blue wave hype: -All indicators showing a tight Senate race in Michigan. -High turnout in Minnesota, which usually doesn't go one way. Fraud backlash could be pushing Republicans to vote. -Tom Tiffany running a good campaign in Wisconsin. -Huge polling misses in Dems' favor in Iowa before. They need GOP rural turnout to crater to sweep the state. Different reasons in each state, but I won't be surprised if there's more regional strength here for the GOP.

Michele Tafoya has hit new highs in the betting markets. Strongly reflective of consistent polls here showing Lean D territory plus some media buzz about this being a close race. It's interesting that MN is now viewed as more competitive than NH in these markets. Again, likely due to the polling averages, where Flanagan only has about a +3.5 lead vs. +6.5 for Pappas in NH.

A bit sad that some of the best EV analysts from 2024 feel the need to back off this time. I get it in DataRepublican's case, but I wish more people could just deal in reality instead of getting demoralized if the news isn't roses for the GOP. I'm not a cheerleader account myself. I always hope for the best for the Right, but I'm not interested in pushing fake narratives or pretending miracle R upsets are happening in this environment. 2026 will be a rough year for Rs. It's just a question of how rough and what we can salvage. It's also a question of whether we'll see regional divergence from the national environment in places like Minnesota, which could be very helpful here. I'd rather understand the battlefield in deep detail than ride comforting fantasies until Election Day.

Shocked at how genuinely grizzled and unstable Ventura looks these days. This is your brain on twenty years of teasing new runs for office that never happen, maximum Trump jealousy, and endorsing Tim Walz. Cooked!