Look up tonight! If you see bright spots on either side of the moon, you’re looking at moon dogs. They’re the nighttime version of sun dogs. Same idea: thin, high cirrus clouds made of tiny six-sided ice crystals. Moonlight bends as it passes through those flat, plate-shaped crystals, and piles up into bright spots 22 degrees on either side of the moon, at the same height as the moon. They’re fainter than sun dogs because moonlight is so much dimmer than sunlight — but with the moon still nearly full after last night’s Hunter’s Moon, and thin cirrus overhead, they’re showing up nicely tonight, some with a little color on the edge. Same sky, same physics, just moonlight doing the work. Beautiful stuff — step outside and take a look!

🌐🚨❄️ #Headsup February 2027: Another Potential Major Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming SSW event is possible for February-2027? ⛔️Firstly, this is an interim probabilistic forecast for February. Could February 2027 feature a significant disruption of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex, with potential downstream consequences for Northern Hemisphere circulation? My latest analysis using the @PyReWeather 4-map interface identifies a potentially noteworthy configuration across the stratosphere and troposphere for February. The assessment is based on a 20-member February structural analog composite, including February 1958, February 1983, and 18 additional analogs, with anomalies calculated relative to the 1991–2020 February climatology. Here is what the four diagnostic maps reveal. 🌡️ 1. The 10hPa atmospheric temperature: pronounced Arctic stratospheric warming anomalies The temperature composite displays substantial positive anomalies over the central Arctic , with the strongest warming signal extending toward the North American Arctic. This asymmetric warming pattern is consistent with a potentially disturbed polar vortex and raises the possibility of vortex displacement or deformation. 🌀 2. 10 hPa winds: a pronounced, asymmetric circulation anomaly The updated 10 hPa wind-vector anomaly map adds an important diagnostic dimension. It shows a strong, spatially asymmetric ring of wind-anomaly magnitudes around the Arctic vortex, with marked variations in the circulation pattern with partial wind reversal (east-west flow) over the Eurasian sector. Combined with the pronounced temperature anomalies, this strengthens the case for monitoring a potential disruption of the polar vortex associated with a SSW possible event that may materialize during February weeks. 🌪️ 3. 300 hPa winds: pronounced upper-level circulation variability. The 300 hPa wind-anomaly magnitude and vector field reveal substantial meridional variability and several distinct sectors of enhanced wind anomalies around the Northern Hemisphere. This pattern suggests a potentially amplified upper-tropospheric circulation, with possible implications for jet-stream positioning, trough development, and the distribution of storm tracks. The anomaly magnitudes, however, should not be interpreted as actual wind speeds or as proof of a particular blocking regime. 🌐 4. The 500 hPa geopotential heights: an amplified planetary-wave pattern The 500 hPa composite displays a pronounced wave pattern, with positive geopotential-height anomalies over parts of the Arctic sector and substantial negative anomalies across other high-latitude regions. This configuration raises the possibility of high-latitude blocking and amplified troughing. Greenland blocking and ridging near the Urals are circulation features worth monitoring as the forecast window approaches, although their persistence and exact positions require further verification. 🌍 POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATIONS FOR FEBRUARY 2027 If this stratospheric signal develops and couples with the tropospheric circulation, several regions deserve attention: 🌧️ North Atlantic and western Europe: potentially enhanced storm-track variability and episodes of unsettled weather. ❄️ Mediterranean and the Levant: opportunities for trough penetration, colder-air intrusions, and precipitation episodes, depending on the eventual synoptic configuration. 🌨️ North America: possible changes in the placement of troughs and ridges, including across parts of the S. United States and the North Pacific sector. 🧭 Northern Hemisphere circulation indices: A negative NAO, Negative PNA, and negative EAWR and SCAND phases are potential configurations that may materialized to gather or independently across weeks of February. 📌 MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT The 20-member February analog composite presents a potentially interesting SSW-related signal, supported by three notable features: • Pronounced positive 10 hPa temperature anomalies over the Arctic. • Strong, asymmetric 10 hPa wind-vector anomalies indicating a potentially disturbed stratospheric circulation. • An amplified 500 hPa geopotential-height pattern accompanied by substantial 300 hPa wind anomalies. Together, these features justify an early monitoring alert for a possible February 2027 stratospheric warming event. The next critical step is to examine the daily evolution of the 10 hPa zonal-mean zonal wind at 60°N, alongside polar-cap temperature and geopotential-height anomalies, to determine whether the vortex merely weakens or undergoes a genuine major SSW And identify which weeks of February the major events may materialize. Bottom line: February 2027 is worth watching for a possible major stratospheric warming. This is a probabilistic, analog-based forecast signal—not a declaration that an SSW, wind reversal, or specific regional weather outcome is certain. Long-range analogs help identify plausible atmospheric regimes. The coming weeks and months of dynamical ensemble forecasts will be essential for determining whether this signal strengthens, weakens, or fails to materialize. Statistical Model By Mr. M @Statisticizer. #SSW #PolarVortex #StratosphericWarming #SeasonalForecast #WeatherAnalogues #PyReWeather #February2027

Aquest mapa per gener-febrer ja quadra amb allò que en any de superniño l'hivern pot portar un gener-febrer amb nevades importants a la nostra zona que ja vam explicar en una publicació feta al setembre.