@RFishBlueFish

Politics, EA, Constitutional Design Alt: @BFishRedFish. Also follow me over there: https://xitter.cf/t.co/a6MzEQVsoE

 NYC
designingdemocracy.net
Joined March 2019
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My constitutional design series is complete! If you've ever wondered anything like "which is the best voting system, taking into account practical concerns?", read it! 20 posts, most 10-15 min read Here is a thread with all the posts here, starting from highlights
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Lula will not rest until he has slain all the Bolsonaros
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You may not like it, but this is what optimal election-watching looks like.
Gil@RFishBlueFish16h
LULAAAAAAAAAA
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LULAAAAAAAAAA
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Gil retweeted
Gil@RFishBlueFish19h
Replying to @RFishBlueFish @billroy1974 @Vanessa_ABee
Abraham Lincoln was not an abolitionist activist. LBJ was not a civil rights activist. They would not have won if they were. They were critical nonetheless.
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It’s worth pointing out that the Ohio senate seat is worth a lot less than the other ones because we’re probably going to lose it in 2 years.
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I am begging Peltola to get a chauffeur. We’re at N=2 of transportation-related accidents here. We need her in that senate seat for a long long time.
VoteHub
@VoteHub22h
Per @AKNewsNow, Mary Peltola and her family sustained minor injuries in a vehicle accident Saturday night, according to her campaign. On medical advice, Peltola will reschedule upcoming campaign events in Fairbanks and Bethel for later this week as she recovers.
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I keep thinking this line is going to plateau and it keeps not doing that. If Republicans lose the Senate (pretty big if) I can't imagine this gets any better, bad vibes tend to compound.
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Very topical given today's discussion about how Trump's second term is "not as bad as we thought". AFAICT this would allow them to circumvent all laws? People with more legal knowledge should correct me if I'm wrong about this.
Jeff Stein
@jstein_sunOct 24
SCOOP: White House lawyers weigh preemptive pardons for large numbers of junior admin staff, as MAGA allies press for protections for lower ranking aides Under discussion is pardons everyone in certain policy, like deportation Does not seem imminent washingtonsun.com/whitehouse…

White House Is Weighing Mass Pardons for Junior Staff

Conservative groups influential with the Trump administration have pressed for the preemptive acts of clemency.

washingtonsun.com
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This is why they pay me the big bucks (I'm pretty sure all of these were and are +EV)
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The South Carolina senate race feels like a window back in time. The candidate issue stances, the fundraising, the media coverage, it all reads as a race straight out of 2018. Bizarre.
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Replying to @flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT
It's not just immigration though. He would make these comments about how ACA was a DISASTER and how Hillary was the worst candidate in the history of the world and lots of things like that and it just wasn't perceived as the positions of an extremist
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And the efforts by Trump to stop certification of election results they don't like has begun. DOJ now seeking to block Alaska Senate results if Peltola wins and the other Dan Sullivan gets votes courthousenews.com/wp-conten…
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This is the message you put out when you want people to bet on their preferred candidate
Kalshi
@KalshiOct 22
For too long, polls, pundits, and experts have told us what America thinks. Prediction markets change that, putting power back in the hands of the people. No gatekeepers. No handpicked voices. Just millions of people putting conviction behind their beliefs.
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Nate Silver is too blind to fake polls. He discards some that are proven fake, but there are a bunch that raise red flags (see eg Trafalgar) that he keeps in the average. I think it might improve his forecasts bc they correct for systemic error, but still bad
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 21
There’s a non-zero chance McMorrow’s campaign saw this fake poll and was a factor in her decision to drop out.
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Would be more respectable to discard sketchy polls and just shift every poll in favor of Republicans to correct for systemic error. (I think this is the right thing to do)
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Ok in light of this post I think I mostly take this back? IMO the Rasmussen and Trafalgar calls are stupid but it seems like for the rest they're just relying on other people who I'd trust. natesilver.net/p/fake-polls-…

Fake polls are a real problem

They’re nothing new, but they may be a growing threat. Plus, the story of the 2026 campaign through political ads in Still Counting EP7.

natesilver.net
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To the people saying “its just a coin toss”: you do realize this isn’t just random sampling error, right? Like it’s way too broad an effect and too high sample sizes to be that. So everyone acknowledges there’s systemic error, the only question is if we’d expect it to go away
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It used to be the case that it just went away on its own next election. Maybe there was a bit of adjustment of methodology too. But we’ve come to a point where that clearly shouldn’t be the baseline assumption
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Prediction models that blend polls w/ fundamentals do adjust in this direction, but not enough (at least in our case). Adding explicit poll-debiasing (which I plan to do for 2028) would cut Dems’ Senate win probability by 2.5 % pts (so not massive—this helps Dems in ME/MI/MN/NH).
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Is Nate writing these pieces specifically to respond to me? I feel like I’m the only one online really engaging in these arguments
Gil@RFishBlueFishOct 22
Nate Silver, bc he's not a polling guy, doesn't realize that pollsters basically haven't done anything to adjust for 16/18/20/24 bias because they don't know how / lack the resources. NYT/Siena is the one that has tried the hardest and they still underestimated Rs in 2024
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I think the big modelling question right now is if it’s better to pay attention to polls and adjust them up for Rs or mostly ignore them and focus on fundamentals. I think I’m somewhere in the middle?
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You kind of have no other choice for estimating generic ballot besides polling, probably needs a 1-2 point R adjustment. State level polls I just downweight pretty hard and adjust them up for Rs
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