RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2) header
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2) profile picture

Raw = Unfiltered. Booty = Treasure. Retired hedge fund manager (CME, equities L/S). commentary on: markets, economics, philosophy, psychology, politics

USA
Joined March 2020
Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)Photo by RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ (@RawBooty2)
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
LISTEN VERY CLOSELY TO WHAT $PLTR IS SAYING: "L3 Harris noted that by fine-tuning open-source models on its own data, a sovereign model outperformed the frontier model it had been using in less than 48 hours and cut costs by 95% in preliminary results. $NVDA reported that by evaluating and post-training its open models, it was able to get its smallest most efficient model to outperform its largest model by a large gap, and can now retrain that model on just a single GPU in a couple of hours, enabling them to retrain any time they have data to improve the decision intelligence." "Tampa General is deploying sovereign AI to keep sensitive data and model processing local while enforcing its own risk and privacy standards for LLM traffic and supporting the granular controls Tampa General wants to define for itself. Using fine-tuned and post-trained Nematron to achieve this outcome, together we also improve model performance by 7% and reduce latency by 22x."
39
89
33
909
219,875
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
CLOROX $CLX Q1 ADJ EPS $1.55 BEATS, REVENUE $1.91B BEATS • Revenue: $1.910B vs $1.876B est, beat • Adj EPS: $1.55 vs $1.06 est, beat • EPS: $1.39 • Gross margin: 40.4% • FY revenue growth guidance: 13%-14% • FY adj EPS guidance: $5.70-$6.00 vs $5.70 est, midpoint above • FY EPS guidance: $5.41-$5.71 Clorox says it will lap the 2026 inventory drawdown in fiscal year 2027, which is expected to add more than 3.5 points to net sales growth.
4
3
1
11
10,991
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
UPWORK $UPWK Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $185.6M (Est. $180M) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.40 (Est. $0.31) 🟢; +11% YoY 🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.25; +19% YoY 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $63.8M (Est. $52.3M) 🟢; +7% YoY 🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 34%; +400 bps YoY 🔹 GSV: $914.1M; -10.1% YoY Clients: 🔹 Active Clients: 717K; -10% YoY 🔹 GSV per Active Client: $5,418; +8% YoY FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $742M-$750M (Est. $742M) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.45-$1.47 (Est. $1.38) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $236M-$240M (Est. $229M) 🟢 Q4 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $169M-$177M (Est. $175M) 🟡 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.30-$0.32 (Est. $0.33) 🔴 🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $51M-$55M (Est. $55.3M) 🔴 Segment Revenue: 🔹 Marketplace: $159.3M; -9% YoY 🔹 Enterprise: $26.3M; -3% YoY Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $53.9M; -22% YoY Announcements: 🔹 MCP Server: 20x weekly active users; nearly 50M AI-agent requests; $3M+ annualized Connects revenue 🔹 AI-Skills GSV: Nearly $450M annualized run rate; +55% YoY 🔹 WorkMotion: Lifted acquisition; contingent talent across 30+ countries Comments: 🔸 “the launch of Upwork’s MCP server is opening our marketplace to AI agents as a new class of client, and today we launched Upwork Now so clients can find talent to start work right away.” 🔸 “Our strong free cash flow profile and durable, high-margin business model give us the financial flexibility to navigate evolving market dynamics while delivering consistent long-term value.”
4
7
43
21,997
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
If you told people during the Obama years that in the 2020s, a republican president would achieve net negative immigration and give all refugee slots to White South Africans, even the most optimistic right wingers would have called you insane We don't appreciate Trump enough
Trump gave his base the single greatest presidency in modern American history BY FAR
22
199
2
2,288
23,193
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
Halloween at Mayor Mamdani's house. 🎃
🤖 Made with AI
229
4,328
201
16,483
498,734
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
Replying to @KobeissiLetter
Impact of AI - This *is* important but it's complicated, and thus widely misunderstood. I've been online daily since the early 1990s. The idea that "AI doesn't drive traffic" misses what's actually happening. AI is making traffic more efficient and more intentional. That has massive implications for a lot of businesses. Anyone who has been using the internet for more than a decade knows search quality deteriorated. Finding useful information became harder, often impossible. Websites became filled with SEO spam, affiliate content, ads, and paywalls. Monetization has corrupted much of the ecosystem. $RDDT skillfully filled part of that gap. In many ways, it became a modern version of Usenet, forums, and bulletin boards. If you wanted an authentic answer, you often ended up adding "reddit" to your search query. But that wasn't really a solution. It was a workaround. What AI has done is make research useful again, for the moment. (Don't worry this too will likely get corrupted and become useless.) Imagine you need a toothbrush. Twenty years ago, you might have searched Google, opened twenty tabs, read reviews, and compared products. Today you ask an AI: "Who makes a good toothbrush?" or "Where should I buy one?" Instead of visiting twenty websites, you now visit only two, and that's the key point. AI isn't eliminating traffic. It's eliminating unnecessary traffic. If you're an advertiser, that's both wonderful and terrifying. It's wonderful if you're the category leader, the lowest-cost provider, or you have a genuinely differentiated product. AI becomes a highly efficient referral engine. Importantly, you now have an opportunity to lower ad spend and get the same or better conversion. (eep!) It's terrifying if you're in the middle because the middle increasingly disappears. Consumers no longer need to sift through ten nearly identical options to find the obvious winner. Ad spend becomes highly problematic, as this is new territory to navigate. How do you gain awareness or market credibility? The irony for Reddit is that much of the training data used to create modern AI came from the very platform that was serving as the internet's research layer. In a sense, Reddit helped create the tool that may ultimately reduce its importance. My prediction is simple: AI will disproportionately benefit category leaders and unique businesses while compressing everyone else. The winners get more qualified traffic. The middle loses visibility until they learn to adapt. Historically, a significant amount of internet traffic and purchasing behavior was driven by buyer fatigue. People would spend thirty minutes researching a product, become frustrated, and eventually settle for whatever happened to be in front of them. That's how you ended up buying the $0.95 Fu-Long-Duck toothbrush whose bristles fell out in your mouth, instead of finding a genuinely superior product from a lesser-known manufacturer. Platforms like Amazon (unintentionally?) reinforced this dynamic by overwhelming buyers with thousands of products of varying quality and then largely rewarding whoever became best at manipulating the platform's search, reviews, and ranking systems. AI changes that equation. If it works as intended, consumers spend less time searching and more time selecting. The result is fewer clicks, fewer page views, but potentially better purchasing decisions. This has profound implications for companies like $GOOG $META $RDDT and most others. For some it's a boom time, for others this is going to be a death sentence. As for me? Well, I'm actually quite bullish on this change. It addresses many of the complaints I've had about the internet since the early, pre-Google era. As an investor your job is not to really think through these implications and try to avoid the losers and find the winners. Big change is coming. Whether AI eventually follows the same path as search and becomes corrupted by incentives, advertising, and optimization games remains to be seen. But for now, it is making research useful again. That's a topic for another post. hope this helps!
1
1
86
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
S&P REVISES META $META OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE ON CAPEX AND FREE CASH FLOW UNCERTAINTY S&P says the negative outlook reflects uncertainty over how long capex will stay elevated and free operating cash flow will be negative. • S&P says Meta's ability to monetize its AI investments is more limited than that of its peers • S&P believes elevated capex could keep free operating cash flow negative beyond 2028 • S&P expects Meta to use only debt to cover its expected free operating cash flow deficit in 2028 • Given the lack of clarity on future capex and Meta's multi-year AI investment plans, S&P is less certain Meta will curtail spending as anticipated
8
6
2
16
16,376
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
Fair winds and following seas, Stan Nelson. We will remember you.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Stan Nelson, a D-Day Navy veteran shown in the image, died Nov. 20 2025 at age 105 and was not the last survivor of the invasion. varsity.startribune.com/stan-nelson-ch… kstp.com/kstp-news/loca… en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._R… mysanfordherald.com/article/2053,l…
308
1,791
95
20,512
377,224
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
$GOOG Serious question: At some point, does scale stop being a moat and start becoming a liability? Search was one of the best business models ever because the marginal cost of serving another query was nearly zero. AI is different. If every interaction has a real per-token compute cost, and usage scales faster than monetization, then the economics start looking less like software and more like a public utility. Let's consider the business of selling electricity: Imagine a world where electricity is free for almost all use cases. Only a small subset of consumption is metered and billed. Demand would explode. Usage would explode. Infrastructure spending would explode. How do you ever earn an adequate return in this scenario? Now, what if so much capital must be deployed to support the infrastructure that the paying customer base simply isn't large enough (doesn't exist) to subsidize the non-paying users? Or worse, what if the revenue generated from the paying segment isn't even sufficient to cover the depreciation expense of the buildout? The assumption embedded in most AI forecasts is that usage growth and monetization growth are highly correlated. What if this assumption is wrong?
1
111
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
$META I'm even less bullish on Meta after the $GOOG earnings report. It seems increasingly likely that both consumer behavior and advertiser behavior are changing. If people are using AI to discover, research, and evaluate products and services instead of traditional search, $GOOG has a problem. If people are allocating more of their time to AI assistants and less to Instagram, Facebook, Reels, and other social platforms, $META has a problem. If companies are using AI to target, optimize, measure, and attribute advertising spend more effectively, both $ Meta and $GOOG may have a problem. Meta and Google have enjoyed extraordinary "advantages" in digital advertising for years. Advertisers tolerated these "advantages" because: a) they had few viable alternatives, and b) measuring performance outside these ecosystems was difficult, or costly. AI may be changing both assumptions. What's particularly fascinating is that Meta and Google are now engaged in an arms race to build the very technology that has the potential to disintermediate parts of the businesses funding the race itself. The bullish case is that AI expands the advertising pie. The bearish case is that AI becomes the interface between users, content, products, and services, reducing the value of both search and social distribution. Meanwhile, both companies are committing unprecedented amounts of capital to AI infrastructure while the path to monetization remains far from clear. So many questions. So much risk.
1
166
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
The biggest problem with AI isn't what it does in 1st world economies. It's what it does to destabilize 3rd world economies. How much low value work has been funneled to low cost, low quality centers like china, Indonesia, india? What happens when 10-20% of that work goes away? Better question, what happens when companies can now evaluate the quality of the outsourced work and they discover it's actually, as they long expected, crap? How many companies wake up to discover insourced labor is actually cheaper than outsourced? Ohh and then there's the question of capital. As AI soaks up capital, marginal opportunities get starved. What's more marginal than investment in these countries? 🤔 I'm bullish on 1st world benefitting from AI. I'm bearish on low education populations for the next 10-30years.
INDONESIA: another stock market crash people don't want to discuss, but we're short it
1
136
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
$GOOG is bragging about their ~$500B annual revenue run rate and 25% growth rate...Bold. Consider: to grow just 20% from here, Google now needs to find another ~$100B in revenue. Every year. The problem is that if you grow fast enough, for long enough, eventually you reach a point where the question is no longer: "Can we build something people want?" but: "How much economic activity is left to capture?" One has to ask, has Google finally reached that point? Has it become so large that its biggest competitor is no longer another company, but the finite size of the global economy? What multiple do you apply to this kind of success? Again global gdp is only about $100t. At what point do we rename Earth simply "google"? or will it become "Earth, brought to you by Alphabet" Too many of these massive tech companies are casually throwing around 100b and trillion dollar figures like they are trivial. The world is a finite place. Scale does eventually matter.
Alphabet CEO: "We had a strong quarter and are now on a half-trillion dollar revenue run rate. Our deep full stack approach is driving momentum across the business, with Alphabet revenues growing 25% year-over year" $GOOGL: -8% AH
1
4
146
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
BREAKING: House Democrats have preemptively introduced a resolution to stop the federal government from bailing out AI companies in the event of the industry collapsing. The bill says these companies should be subjected to the ordinary bankruptcy process.
161
2,264
288
25,285
1,050,185
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
PART 5: THE BUBBLE - EVERYTHING COMPUTER #5
🤖 Made with AI
114
317
65
1,803
81,697
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
1
2
233
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
Replying to @FinanceLancelot
He is an equipment salesman.
2
7
338
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
$RHI Q3 2026 earnings: Robert Half staffing sales grow again, while cost cuts lift profit Robert Half's core staffing business grew again after a four-year slump, while its Protiviti consulting division shrank less than feared. Chief executive M. Keith Waddell said staffing sales rose 2% on a same-day constant-currency basis, lifting profit per share by 14% to $0.49. Cost cuts made in the spring also restored Protiviti's operating margin to 8%, near the top of the company's own plan. • Total revenue (same-day constant-currency): -𝟎.𝟐% (reported revenue $1.359B, +0.4% from a year ago) • Talent solutions revenue (same-day constant-currency): +𝟏.𝟔% (first growth since 2022 (-1.5% in Q2)) • Protiviti consulting operating margin, excluding one-offs: 𝟕.𝟕% (up from 2.1% in Q2 (target: 6% to 8%)) • Profit per share: $𝟎.𝟒𝟗 (+14% from a year ago (target: $0.43 to $0.53)) ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: 🟢 Bullish The story got better because temporary contract staffing joined permanent hiring in returning to growth, and the promised $11 million in quarterly consulting cost savings arrived without new severance charges. One caution: Protiviti beating its lowered sales plan shows the target was cautious, not that the US bank regulatory slump is over, and nine-month dividends exceeded cash generation before financing by $133 million by our math. The question now is whether rising staffing sales reflect clients buying more hours of work or just paying higher hourly rates against an easy comparison. If hours worked are rising, a durable staffing recovery is underway; if hours are still falling, higher prices and cost cuts are doing the work. The third-quarter 10-Q filing's breakdown of contract hours and the fourth-quarter outlook on the conference call will tell. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🟢🟢 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 Talent solutions is Robert Half's core staffing business, placing both temporary contract workers and full-time employees. "Talent solutions returned to adjusted year-over-year revenue growth for the first time since 2022, with revenues increasing 2 percent," chief executive M. Keith Waddell said. After stripping out billing-day and currency shifts, segment sales rose 1.6% from a year ago, reversing a 1.5% decline in the second quarter. • Permanent placement sales: up 5.6% from a year ago on a same-day constant-currency basis, up from 2.5% growth last quarter • Contract staffing sales: up 1.0% on the same basis, flipping from a 2.1% drop in the second quarter • Finance and accounting contract sales: up 1.5% on the same basis, after falling 1.3% last quarter • Talent solutions gross margin: 47.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from a year ago as cost of services fell This matters because permanent placement is the staffing line most sensitive to the economy, and temporary contract work has now followed it into growth. Still, total talent solutions growth of 1.6% landed near the bottom of the company's 1% to 5% target range, and comparisons against last year's slump were easy. What to watch: fourth-quarter staffing revenue growth in the conference call remarks and quarterly filing. Holding positive growth despite fewer fourth-quarter billing days would show client hiring is building real momentum. 🟢 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 Protiviti is Robert Half's business consulting arm, advising clients on internal audit, risk and technology. In the second quarter, a $7 million severance charge and lower billing hours pushed Protiviti's operating margin, excluding deferred-compensation trust swings, down to 2.1%. Management promised those staff cuts would save $45 million a year, or about $11 million a quarter, starting in the third quarter. The savings showed up on schedule. Protiviti's operating margin, excluding trust swings, rebounded to 7.7% in the third quarter, landing near the top of the firm's 6% to 8% target range and up 0.2 percentage points from a year ago. Costs of services — the direct cost of paying consultants — fell by 1.1 percentage points of segment revenue from a year ago, lifting gross margin to 24.1%, though selling and overhead costs rose 0.9 percentage points to 16.4%. What to watch: Protiviti's fourth-quarter operating margin target on the conference call. Maintaining margins near 7% during a seasonally slower fourth quarter would show the cost structure fits the smaller project mix. 🟢 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐀𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 Robert Half's technology practice places contract software developers, systems analysts and IT support specialists with clients. While other staffing lines shrank earlier in the year, technology was the first specialization to stabilize and now leads the recovery. In the third quarter, technology contract revenue rose 4.6% as reported to $165.1 million. On a same-day constant-currency basis, growth accelerated to 3.9%, up from 2.3% in the second quarter and a 0.3% decline in the first quarter. Because IT placements carry higher hourly bill rates than clerical roles, faster technology growth also supports overall staffing gross margins. What to watch: technology consulting revenue details in the quarterly filing. Continued acceleration in both contract IT placement and technology consulting would confirm client IT budgets are loosening. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 🔴🔴 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐡𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐤 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐬 "Demand for risk and compliance consulting services also showed encouraging signs of improvement during the quarter," Waddell said. Protiviti has struggled for a year because big US banks scaled back large regulatory compliance projects under the current administration. Last quarter, management set a low bar for the third quarter, forecasting Protiviti sales to fall 4% to 8% on a same-day constant-currency basis. Protiviti beat that lowered target, with sales down 3.3% on a same-day constant-currency basis (down 2.9% as reported to $483.5 million), and up by our math from $471.0 million last quarter. Under Rule 6, beating a lowered target shows the outlook was cautious, not that the regulatory slump is over. In the United States, where Protiviti earns most of its money, consulting revenue still fell 4.5% on a same-day basis, marking a fifth straight quarter of contraction. What to watch: the revenue and growth rate of Protiviti's risk and compliance practice on the conference call. Until US Protiviti sales stop falling from a year ago, the shift toward smaller, shorter projects remains a drag on the firm. 🔴 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬 Robert Half prioritises its quarterly dividend over open-market stock buybacks and refuses to borrow money to fund capital returns. During the first nine months of 2026, cash generated before financing activities fell 37% from a year ago to $47.1 million, while dividend payments totaled $179.8 million. By our math, dividends exceeded cash generation before financing by $132.7 million over the nine months. That shortfall came out of the cash balance, which dropped to $321.3 million from $464.4 million at the end of 2025. Because the dividend consumed all available cash flow, nine-month stock buybacks plunged to $6.8 million (about $0.7 million in the third quarter by our math, mainly for employee tax withholding) from $92.1 million a year earlier. What to watch: operating cash flow in the third-quarter 10-Q filing. Until quarterly cash generation covers the roughly $60 million quarterly dividend, open-market share buybacks will stay near zero. 🔴 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧'𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫 The earnings release confirmed that administrative and customer support staffing kept shrinking — down 3.1% on a same-day constant-currency basis — while leaving five standing risks to be checked in the conference call remarks and 10-Q filing. • Contract hours worked vs bill rates: not in the release; the 10-Q filing will show whether staffing growth came from more hours worked or higher hourly prices. • Gentry California wage lawsuit: a court hearing on a permanent injunction requiring paid candidate interviews was scheduled for September 24, 2026; the 10-Q legal footnote will disclose the outcome. • AI displacement of clerical and professional roles: listed again as a risk factor in the release, while Administrative and Customer Support revenue fell 3.1% adjusted. • Fourth-quarter calendar headwind: the fourth quarter has 61.1 billing days versus 64.6 in the third quarter, including an extra lost day management previously sized at $20 million of revenue. • Macroeconomic sensitivity: Waddell noted "gradually improving market conditions", but small-business clients remain vulnerable to any economic slowdown. 👓 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐰𝐮𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 Under accounting rules, Robert Half records changes in what it owes employees under deferred compensation plans inside operating costs, while booking the offsetting gains or losses on the trust investments separately below operating income. In the third quarter, trust investments lost $2.3 million versus a $47.6 million gain a year ago, making reported operating income jump 451% to $74.8 million while operating income excluding trust swings rose 18.5% to $72.6 million. — • — • — 💲 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐧𝐞𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): $𝟖𝟐𝟔.𝟐 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating Money owed by clients for staffing and consulting services fell 1.4% from a year ago, even as reported revenue edged up 0.4%. Receivables rose 0.6% from the second quarter's $821.4 million as third-quarter billing activity picked up, showing healthy cash collection from clients. 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐮𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): $𝟏𝟓.𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇘ decelerating Spending on property and cloud computing software totaled $46.9 million for the first nine months of 2026, down 24.7% from $62.2 million a year ago. By our math, subtracting first-half spending of $31.8 million leaves $15.0 million in the third quarter, right on the middle of management's $10 million to $20 million plan. 𝐃𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭 (𝟐𝟔𝐐𝟑): 𝟏𝟎𝟎.𝟗 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 ⇗ accelerating The diluted share count rose 0.9% from 100.0 million a year ago and increased from 100.3 million in the second quarter. Because the recruiter halted open-market share buybacks to preserve cash for its dividend, employee stock grants slightly increased the total share count. — • — • — ❓ 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫? Contract staffing revenue rose 1.0% on a same-day constant-currency basis, but the release does not split hours worked from hourly bill rates. Last quarter, hours worked fell 2.8% while bill rates carried the revenue. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭 𝐫𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠? A California court held a hearing on September 24, 2026 on a motion to require Robert Half to pay temporary candidates for interview time. The release did not mention the outcome or its cost. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡-𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤? Robert Half gives its quarterly outlook on the conference call rather than in the earnings release. With 5% fewer billing days in the fourth quarter, investors need the target range to gauge underlying demand. 𝐃𝐢𝐝 𝐔𝐒 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥-𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧? Waddell noted encouraging signs in risk and compliance consulting, yet US Protiviti revenue still fell 4.5% on a same-day basis. Management has not disclosed the exact revenue or growth rate of the risk practice.
1
4
928
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
$MRNA - 2 trading days until the dog and pony show. Hard to imagine wanting to risk a 5-10x gain on that presentation. It'll be interesting to see if the FOMO continues to ramp through the rest of the week. Smart move would be to either hedged into the weekend, or sell. The problem is liquidity is prob only 10m shares over the next two days to sell into without hammering the price. I remain amazed how much this thing has moved in ~60days. More amazed by the number of people who think the stock gets cheaper the higher it goes. Presently it's only like ~40% below the valuation of $pfe. that's a hell of a premium for products that don't yet exist, will be difficult to manufacture, and whose pricing is totally unknown. Never mind execution risk, competitive pressure and then of course regulatory approvals all of which takes time.
5
1
1
27
1,697
RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ retweeted
YouTube seems unstoppable right now. Incredible chart.
93
247
68
2,246
215,808