ALT A graph displaying past and future AMOC changes from climate models. Up to present day, there is a high variability in historical AMOC modelled anomaly (shown in blue). After present day, the modelled future projections (red) become increasingly negative. Summary: the AMOC is projected to weaken in the future; however, internal variability could obscure this signal. Annual mean observed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) anomalies from RAPID98 (black), the ensemble mean and spread (2 standard deviations) of 10-year running mean AMOC anomalies in the CMIP6 historical scenario (blue line and shading) and the ensemble mean and spread (2 standard deviations) of 10-year running mean AMOC projections for the scenario SSP585 from CMIP6 (red line and shading). The black horizontal lines indicate the internal variability of the AMOC, calculated as twice the ensemble mean standard deviation of the 10-year mean AMOC in the CMIP6 preindustrial control experiment.