Tim O’Brien

Tomorrow is one of the most important days of Q3 earnings season. Why? Because it's the official start of Q3 Earnings Season $JPM $GS $C and $WFC all report before the open. $MS $BAC follow Wednesday. Banks have tons of data on consumers so it is smart ot pay attention even if you don't own the stock. But here’s the thing nobody is talking about enough. Higher bond yields make this earnings season more complicated than it looks. They improve income on some assets while making deposits more expensive, loans harder to service, and deals harder to complete. The setup is not clean. Banks are walking into earnings with rate tailwinds on one side and credit risk headwinds on the other. $JPM anticipated mid-to-high-teens increases in investment-banking fees and trading revenue. $BAC expected investment-banking fees to fall by at least 10%. Two of the largest banks in America just gave you completely opposite signals going into the same earnings week. That divergence is worth paying attention to. The banks aren’t all the same story right now — and treating them like they are is how you get the trade wrong. Which banks do you own?

The old hag investors “2025 is going to be a challenging year for the markets.” 2025 markets go UP 📈 “2026 is going to be a challenging year for the markets.” 2026 markets go UP 📈 Now we are hearing “2027 is going to be a challenging year for the markets.” I guess eventually you could be right 😂

'27 Earnings Growth expectations for some of the BIG neocloud companies $NBIS -63% $CRWV +53% $IREN +88%