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Week Ahead - Fed Decision, Big Tech Earnings and $117 Oil: What to Watch this Week
youtu.be/BL2EH4CxZM0?si=WgDs…
Chapters
00:00 Fed, Big Tech and $117 oil: the busiest week of the fall
00:36 Last week's close
01:04 Scorecard: Meta, Tesla, the 20-year auction, diesel
02:31 Thursday's AI selloff
03:03 Why power stocks fell too
03:28 Oil: Brent at $116.72 and the Saudi attacks
04:30 The Fed: hold now, December in play
04:58 Anthropic's IPO
05:53 Calendar: Sunday to Tuesday
06:31 Wednesday: Bank of Canada, Fed, Microsoft, Alphabet
07:05 Thursday: GDP, PCE, ECB, Amazon, Bank of Japan
07:53 Friday: Exxon, Chevron, wages, China PMIs
08:10 China's economy and housing
08:48 Three things to watch
09:39 The bottom line
I'm currently on Al Jazeera Arabic discussing the mid terms. If you're an Arabic speaker, please join us!
Tony Nash retweeted
😌 some of us foresaw this @TonyNashNerd
..
See there is going to be transformation with AI but by no means exponential valuation was possible or the economies would absorb that much of compute demand ..
Consolidation will happen ..
Microsoft was smart in slowing down fair water data centers ..
Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and SpaceX (AI) will make it and they already are Govt backed entities
Tony Nash retweeted
Week Ahead - Fed Decision, Big Tech Earnings and $117 Oil: What to Watch this Week
youtu.be/BL2EH4CxZM0?si=WgDs…
Chapters
00:00 Fed, Big Tech and $117 oil: the busiest week of the fall
00:36 Last week's close
01:04 Scorecard: Meta, Tesla, the 20-year auction, diesel
02:31 Thursday's AI selloff
03:03 Why power stocks fell too
03:28 Oil: Brent at $116.72 and the Saudi attacks
04:30 The Fed: hold now, December in play
04:58 Anthropic's IPO
05:53 Calendar: Sunday to Tuesday
06:31 Wednesday: Bank of Canada, Fed, Microsoft, Alphabet
07:05 Thursday: GDP, PCE, ECB, Amazon, Bank of Japan
07:53 Friday: Exxon, Chevron, wages, China PMIs
08:10 China's economy and housing
08:48 Three things to watch
09:39 The bottom line
➡️ China's annual exports exceed $3.5 trillion
➡️ China's total external debt stands around $2.5 trillion and its overall domestic government debt runs into tens of trillions of dollars
🦄 Foreign RMB issuance peaking around $90 billion is mathematically tiny
Yuan for the Money: Foreign issuance of RMB bonds is growing
In late September, SAFE released its H1 2026 Balance of Payments Report. The report highlighted that foreign issuers made up 54% of panda bond fundraising in H1 2026, surpassing Chinese-background issuers for the first time. Additionally, the report noted that foreign issuers intended to use most of those proceeds, 68%, offshore, which continues to build out offshore renminbi markets. I went back and looked at the data on international RMB bonds. Some thoughts:
1.) CNY increasing its role as a funding currency: The yield differential between the US 10-year and the Chinese 10-year is over 300 bps. A dominant currency has 3 roles: reserves, vehicle, and funding. The third is the fastest to shift given that funding demand is highly sensitive to yield differentials.
2.) Rising RMB trade settlement reduces the need to hedge: Bloomberg notes that hedging CNY bonds can run about 3%, which almost eliminates the gains earned from the aforementioned yield differential. However, as China settles a significant portion of its trade in RMB, a growing pool of borrowers has a natural use for the currency and does not need to hedge, preserving the gain.
3.) Record year for panda bond issuance: 2026 was a record year for panda bonds (foreign entities issuing inside mainland China in RMB). A total of $23B equivalent has been issued YTD, with the next highest year being 2024 at $13B. The single largest issuer was China Mengniu Dairy at around $3.9B through its Hong Kong entity. However, European banks and corporates continue to like this market, and we saw some new sovereigns — Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Slovenia — tap the market.
4.) Foreign offshore RMB bonds also hit a record: Foreign offshore RMB issuance set a new high totaling over $65B equivalent YTD. A notable entrant was South Korea, where corporates issued around $680M equivalent of RMB debt domestically, known as Kimchi bonds. (Who names these? I want that job.)
On the Weekly Briefing with @amlivemon I said this could be a brilliant plan to get Republican parents out to vote. Who was it sent by? At this point, it doesn't matter. It put a key issue in front of Texas Republicans and mobilized a lot of voters. Politics is a gutter fight.
Tony Nash retweeted
Smart and long overdue. We are very vulnerable in the American homeland. (Google this year's drone swarms over Barksdale AF Base for just one example.)
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support — no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-…
Tony Nash retweeted
Who Really Profits From the Iran Conflict? Arms or Energy? youtube.com/watch?v=PXg7zo0w…
00:00 Who really profits: arms or energy?
00:38 Where the Iran conflict stands
01:33 RTX: Raytheon sales and missile contracts
02:32 Reading RTX's earnings closely
03:09 Northrop Grumman and GE Aerospace
03:37 Why defense stocks are down since the war began
03:59 War funding moves slowly
04:46 Energy: why refiners are the big winners
05:36 TotalEnergies: cheaper crude, pricier fuel
06:14 Oil services: Halliburton's long runway
06:36 Who pays: diesel and gas prices
06:57 Airlines and truckers absorb the cost
07:32 Tanker rates, insurance and Hormuz traffic
08:05 Which gains can last?
09:07 What to watch this week
Tony Nash retweeted
Every other tweet I see is about how “the west” is in trouble. Not exactly wrong. But why does “the east” get a pass here? Japan has highest debt to gdp, China is facing chronic debt overhang, Asian EMs are getting crushed on fuel prices, and India’s rupee continues to fall.
My latest for Main Street Alpha - Seoul's Investment: Korea Balancing Washington, Beijing and Tokyo gngresearch.com/articles/seo…
🤖 Made with AI
Today's Opening Print - AI Selloff: Market Breakdown or Market Breather? youtu.be/Q0mYAKuvV50?si=MWOs…
I don't do this much, but if they used AuditFlow, they would have known this long ago. completeintel.com/auditflow
Daimler Truck North America has sued former employee Terry S. Watson and his wife, Krystal Watson, accusing them of embezzling nearly $3.8 million over five years, according to the lawsuit filed Oct. 12 in Oregon. Daimler is seeking about $6.6 million in damages. The allegations underscore the importance of internal financial controls at one of North America’s largest commercial truck manufacturers.
vist.ly/5pk6e
Today's Opening Print - Netanyahu's Middle East Map: Three Blocs, and Who Pays for Them?
youtube.com/watch?v=W19m72Z6…
Tony Nash retweeted
This man stood by and let the Chinese do pretty much whatever they wanted. If he is never allowed near the halls of power ever again it will be too soon. He floated giving back Taiwan to China to obtain peace in our time and was clueless October 7. Awful track record






















