🇭🇷 Real Estate • architectural photog • #RaiderNation & #Dodgers • PT storm chaser • filmmaker • editor • BJJ bruises
Phoenix, AZ
Joined January 2009
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Tony Peric retweeted
Fox: Why are you here this morning?
Trump rally attendee: Well, in the late 70s, I was a little too young to go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here. There's nothing like seeing a cult right up front.
What's happening in Alaska right now is wild.
They recruited a spoiler candidate named Sullivan.
U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan have alleged for months: The other candidate on the ballot named Dan Sullivan was recruited by operatives aligned with Democratic challenger Mary Peltola.
This reminds me of the Eddie Murphy movie, A Distinguished Gentleman line: The name you know!
I am an independent so don't flame me.
Ladies: your friend is getting married & I feel bad they didn't have a budget for a photographer.
I really do. It's a special day.
But...don't insult photographers who have spent years crafting our look & your budget is $250 for two + hours? Seriously. I'm not even a wedding photographer and that's insulting. Oh and it's this Friday.
Tony Peric retweeted
Big Cat is on the warpath against Arizona Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill and lists some of the shitty things he has done as owner over the years:
#Raiders are not blowing up this team mid season. I can see some players traded away for picks (we need more than seven in next years draft). Kubiak and Spytek are not about to admit they screwed up and blow this team up during the season. We can't really add before the draft because we have no draft capital to trade for players unless we do a player sway. We are sellers, not buyers.
Considering Open Door is a larger home seller, you'd think they would spend a little money on their photos? Nope!
It is much cheaper than a price reduction and sitting on the market almost 80 days.
zillow.com/homedetails/7329-…
I see this all the time: Builders and agents, if you are not getting professional photos of your new construction, down to studs rebuild anywhere but especially in the competitive market of Phoenix right now. this single mistake is costing you thousands of dollars in holding costs and price reductions.
I don't think Mendoza should start. But if you're down 35-18 before we scored again, give the kid some real time and reps. I have no clue what this coaching staff is thinking. Kubiak is scheming runs like he has Walker and the o-line can't block and push the line for shit.
Tony Peric retweeted
Byron Scott says that Kobe Bryant would lift at 4am, come back and make 500 shots, do a full practice, then work out again at night, and says Kobe told him he did that because over the course of five years the gap would become impossible to close for his competition
“There’s three people in my lifetime that I admired on how hard they worked: Jerry Rice, Walter Payton, Kobe Bryant. His was legendary. Kobe, as far as he never worked out just once a day. He would get up at 4 in the morning, or he’d say, ‘Meet me at the gym at 4 in the morning,’ and he would work out for two, three hours lifting because he knew he had to get stronger, had to get bigger.”
“Then he would go eat breakfast, and then he’d come back and he’d make 500 shots, so he’d be there another two hours. Then he’d get ready for practice. He’d go through a two-and-a-half-hour, three-hour practice like it’s nothing. Then he’d go have lunch, chill out for another hour, then he’d come back at night and work out again.”
“And it was crazy to me because his method of it was scientific. He was like, ‘B, if I work out three times a day and all these other guys who are so-called great players work out just for practice, they just work out that one time a day, over a five-year period they can’t catch me. I’ve worked out that much. I’ve worked on my body, I’ve worked on my footwork, I’ve worked on my shot, so five, ten years from now they can’t catch me. They’re that far behind.’”
“I never thought about it until he explained it to me. I was a guy that in the summertime, go to the gym, lift weights, go to the track, run for two hours, then go play — and that’s equivalent to three times a day. But I never thought of it or put it in the type of method that he was talking about.”
“I just thought it was ironic that a young man got it that quickly. He understood that if I worked out harder and longer and more than the guy who’s supposed to be on my level, sooner or later he won’t be on my level anymore. Kobe was extremely intelligent. He just said, ‘Scientifically, if I do this, you can’t catch me.’ And he was right. It worked.”
Tony Peric retweeted
Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data.
Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen.
Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However:
- credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years.
- more people are paying rent via credit card.
- average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago
- class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month.
- starting to see these renters move down a tier
Class B:
- simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous.
- fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50%
- considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets.
Class C:
- looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up
- more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades
- tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it
- wage growth has not kept up
Lenders:
- some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff.
- a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses.
- number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall.
- data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over.
I asked “how do you think this ends?”
“Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”
Tony Peric retweeted
As live from Alpine, Arizona chasing a supercell deep in the White Mountains. I may have botched this
Tony Peric retweeted
(1/2)Between about 6:45-9:00AM today, an estimated 2” fell on the headwaters of Gould Wash! That was enough to send a flood wave down the Wash and into the town of Hurricane.
Tony Peric retweeted
Very low wall cloud with #tornado warned supercell just east of Show Low, Arizona