Trumpusha

John Berman: “a wave of new polls that could point to just that. a wave. new numbers from the new york times and siena, which if they are reflected on election day, the democrats would take the senate with room to spare. leads in five match-ups. again, these are polls. we will see what happens ultimately by the end of tomorrow, but one notable race here is michigan, where the democrat abdul el-sayed leads by 11 points. that's the biggest we've seen there. it was taken before the stunning move by democratic congresswoman haley stevens abruptly flipping her endorsement from abdul el-sayed to republican mike rogers. i want to spell out for you just what it would mean if these polls are accurate for control of the senate. i'm gonna ask for forgiveness from the southeastern part of the country. i'm gonna cover it up here, but before i do that, let me just point out one thing. this is how the cook political report rates these races with the yellow states being the ones that are toss-ups. they don't even consider north carolina a toss-up anymore. if democrats win there, and most people will tell you, it's a pretty safe bet they will, that will be one flip already for the democrats. so let me put this back here. a reminder, democrats need 51 seats, 51 seats to control the u.s. senate. i'm just gonna go down this new york times polling to show you what that would mean. in michigan, okay, in michigan, abdul el-sayed leads by 11 points, so you give that to them. texas, james talarico leads by seven points. all of a sudden, with those pretty sizable leads, democrats are already at 49 seats. they need two more. keep going down the list. in maine, troy jackson up by six points. they're at 50, so democrats would need just one more of ohio, iowa, kansas, or alaska. they lead by five points in both ohio and in kansas. so all of a sudden, democrats are at 52. they actually have what they need to control the u.s. senate, and then some. then there are two states left, and i know these are very close, consider toss-ups right now, but just for argument's sake, give them both the democrats there. then democrats would be at 54 seats. democrats would be ecstatic to get 51, let alone 54. and then, if you're doing the mind-blowing scenarios, right, i'll get rid of this. there was a new york times poll out last week that had south carolina tied. say south carolina, you know, say democrats managed to eke that one out. they'd be at 55, and then there are a lot of democrats looking at mississippi right now. so look, this is sort of the moonshot for democrats now, probably beyond what they can actually achieve, but you see, if some of these polls are right, it could spell a very good day for them.” A host: “cnn's harry enten running the numbers on this, and of course, the only polls that matter are the polls on election day, but if these numbers hold, what does it show?” Harry Enten: “yeah, what does it show, you know? we're gonna go here, and we're gonna show you what those numbers indicate. okay, we've got five of the races here where democrats hold an advantage, and with the exception of maine, these are all states that donald trump carried back in 2024. looking at michigan, all the talk about that with abdul el-sayed and mike rogers, but abdul el-sayed up 11. texas, james talarico up seven. how about maine? susan collins in big trouble. troy jackson up six. ohio, six. sherrod brown, kansas, five, which hasn't elected a democratic senator since babe ruth called the shot back in 1932, and then when there are two other races where the races are quite tight, and that is alaska and iowa. no clear leader here, but i guess the nominal advantage goes to the democrats slightly. one alaska, one in iowa. what does that do to the map? well, it does this to the map. take a look at this. okay, boom. we go from 47 democrats all the way up to 54 democrats. that would be a net gain of seven seats. all of these states would go blue. of course, you need 51 for democrats for control, but at those times polls are right, 51 ain't nothing. it could be all the way up to 54. yeah, if these polls hold through election day, this is like dream of vision land for democrats. what? but this also gets to the broader conversation of the long held view that republicans are underestimated, under counted when it comes to polling. what do you have? okay, so you know, this whole idea, okay, maybe the polls are underestimating republicans, and that has happened. that has happened in trump won states during trump's first term, his second term, and then in between. take a look at here. gop has beat the final set of polling average in close races in states trump won in the prior election. look at this. by 4.1 points. by 4.1 points on average. and i will note the times polls are kind of right up there in the sky of how good democrats could potentially do. the averages are closer. so let's just say that in fact we do get these polling errors and the gop is in fact underestimated. what might that do? well, it might do something like this. hello. okay, you go from all of a sudden democrats fall significantly from 54 seats down to 49. why? because alaska goes red, texas goes red, kansas goes red, ohio goes red. and so i think that people should keep in mind that polls are just tools. there are definitely scenarios that are out there in which republicans could very well hold the united states senate.” A host: “and do the flip side. what's the scenario with democrats are underestimated?” Harry Enten: “yeah, what if democrats are underestimated? well, you know, keep this in mind. take a look at dems beating their final senate poll averages. if you look at midterms during the trump era, 2018, 2022, 2018 democrats are actually more likely to be underestimated by the polls, slightly more likely. and look at 2022. in all of the close senate races, democrats were underestimated. they were underestimated. so this idea that a poll error would necessarily benefit republicans, that doesn't hold true to history. so what might happen if in fact democrats were underestimated? well, we can do that right here. and look at this, democrats get all the way up to 55 seats. why 55? because take a look here. what turns blue? how about south carolina, which has not elected a democratic senator since fritz hollings back in 1998. so the bottom line is this, there is a wide range of scenarios that are possible. i'd rather be in the democrats' position than the republicans, but the bottom line is either party could in fact win the united states senate with actual relative ease. there's just a wide range of scenarios out there.” A host: “there is a wide range. this is really interesting, how you play this out though, harry, and what we will all need to wait and see what happens.” Harry Enten: “we will wait and see. the voters will have their say soon enough.” John Berman: “with us now, republican strategist, neil chatterjee and cnn political commentator, karen finney. i'm gonna move from texas to michigan, which is obviously what everyone is talking about right now. and i want to put up this poll from the new york times siena, just so people know the backdrop here. you know, abdul el-sayed is seen as leading, albeit this poll was taken before the news from haley stevens over the weekend. and karen, let me start with you, because look, i know democrats are unhappy with haley stevens. i know there's been a lot of back and forth about haley stevens in the last day, but you've worked on a lot of campaigns. isn't it the job of the campaign, in this case, the abdul el-sayed campaign, to make sure something like this doesn't happen? i mean, how would a campaign normally try to take care of something like this before saturday and sunday?” Karen Finney: “well, here's what i'd say. there's clearly, i mean, there's additional reporting that's come out over the last several hours, because that's how fast the story has been moving. you heard the congresswoman say she's concerned for haley stevens. so there's clearly some other things going on there for her. you know, normally, sure, there's a cooling off period, and then you come back together and unify. but here's the thing, john, you have to have a willing participant, and reporting indicates that haley was not willing to, for example, you know, she had a big rift with nana uemura after that primary. so hard to know whether or not she was a good faith actor in trying to unify. but look, what i think is more important, i agree with the congresswoman. you know, the advertising, the mud slinging, the islamophobia, the antisemitism, has really drawn, you know, open wounds and tried to divide people. and one of the things i was so pleased to see yesterday was just total unity on the part of the democratic party in michigan, and particularly the black community. i have to tell you, i heard from a lot of black leaders on the ground who were not happy that haley stevens chose to use a black church as the backdrop for her endorsement of mike rogers. and that actually further emboldened people to want to get out and vote for abdul.” John Berman: “so, neil, i've left this up there to sort of loom over the conversation, this latest new york times siena poll, which shows abdul el-sayed with an 11-point lead, albeit before the haley stevens news. cnn had a poll last week which showed health size lead growing as well. and inside these polls, enormous disapproval for president trump. and also rising negatives for mike rogers. so my question to you is, how much do you think this will really matter given this political environment?” Neil Chatterjee: “yeah, look, i mean, a lot of this, it all depends on, you know, the accuracy of the polling, whether the map, the money, the structural advantages that republicans have in some states hold. i'll tell you, this has been a tough, you know, kind of doom and gloom campaign season for those of us on the republican side, because of the president's approval ratings, because of some of the polls we've been seeing. but the vibe really shifted this weekend. i have to just tell you, amongst, you know, republican politicos, the new york times breaking the double dan stevens story in alaska, you know, casting light on that race and what lengths democrats would go to, quite frankly, what i thought was interesting isn't even so much that haley stevens endorsed mike rogers. it's the vitriol that she faced yesterday. you know, what happened to people putting country over party? we're supposed to praise that, but when someone actually does that, she's just brutally savaged by folks criticizing her, saying there's too much on the line. you've got to put party over country. a lot of republicans who may be dissatisfied with the trump administration and congressional republicans right now, they see that, that could motivate them to show up on tuesday, like, man, these guys will go to any lengths to gain power. i may be a little bit unhappy or unmotivated to vote today, but gosh, if the other side is so thirsty for power, maybe i need to show up and do my part from my party as well.” John Berman: “all right, let's follow up on that a little bit. i'm gonna circle michigan and alaska, or i'm gonna move the entire country and then circle michigan and alaska here and talk about them. there has been focus on those two states over the last few days. so closing in on election day, the focus may be largely on those two states, but 25 seconds or less from each of you, first to you, karen, given that there's focus on michigan and alaska, how effective a campaign tactic is it for president trump to go to the reflecting pool today to focus the country on his construction projects, which they've been telling pollsters all year round, they don't like.” Karen Finney: “right. i have to tell you, i had to read it twice to make sure i was reading that correctly. wow, okay, thank you, donald trump. you're doing our job for us as a closing message to remind people why they are so angry at this president and why, as the wall street journal poll found, people want a check on his power and they want an end of the war in iran and with democrats, they're gonna get it.” John Berman: “neil, to you, are there places you'd rather see him today than the reflecting pool?” Neil Chatterjee: “i'd rather see him there than in maine, for sure, or michigan, quite frankly, and look, i think this works. i think this will gin up the republican base in the red states where republicans need turnout and it keeps him away from the blue states and the purple states where i'm certain the candidates in those states probably want to show some independence from him and i put iowa and ohio in that category as well. so i think this actually does work as a strategy to both gin up the base but give some cushion to your more moderate candidates.” John Berman: “and it will no doubt get up the base among supporters who care about algae blooms as well. neil chatterjee, karen finney, so good to see both of you. one of the things that i like in the closing days of the campaign is we're all so tired and punch drunk that we tend to say a lot of things that make me smile. great to see both of you.”