Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw) header
Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw) profile picture

Jonathan Judge

@bachlaw

Lawyer, former Wisconsinite, (coefficient) shrinkage enthusiast. Baseball Prospectus stats, PECOTA. Likes: Brewers, Packers, statistical parameters.

 Chicago, IL
bachlaw.bsky.social
Joined January 2010
  • Tweets52.4K
  • Following807
  • Followers3.5K
507Media
Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)Photo by Jonathan Judge (@bachlaw)
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Leon (@LeonY1_2) profile picture
Leon
@LeonY1_212h
D+12.7 Texas in 1964 VS D+12.1 Texas in 2026:
Image from Leon (@LeonY1_2)
Image from Leon (@LeonY1_2)
50
219
25
6,972
340,764
nytimes.com/2026/11/04/us/po…
Inside Team Trump’s Historic Collapse in the 2026 Midterm Elections (Gift Article)

Inside Team Trump’s Historic Collapse in the 2026 Midterm Elections (Gift Article)

How an unpopular president and an unpopular war provided an opening for Democrats to make sweeping gains in the midterms.

nytimes.com
2
347
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Maury Brown (@BizballMaury) profile picture
Maury Brown
@BizballMaury11h
FOX’s telecast of World Series Game 5, featuring the Brewers clinching victory over the Rays, ranked as the #7 for the week of Oct 26-Nov 1st of the top 25 most-watched sports event of the week with 14.1 million viewers. In addition: ◦#8 - Brewers vs. Rays - World Series Game 4 (FOX) - 13.3 million viewers ◦#9 - Brewers vs. Rays - World Series Game 3 (FOX) - 8.2 million viewers
3
22
10,122
time.com/article/2026/07/15/…
Giant Statue Mocking Trump's War in Iran Draws Attention in D.C.

Giant Statue Mocking Trump's War in Iran Draws Attention in D.C.

The artist collective behind the stunt told TIME the statue is “an attempt to de-escalate the conflict through positive reinforcement.”

time.com
315
Good thread as usual
David Shor (@davidshor) profile pictureDavid Shor
@davidshor14h
Last night was a historic win for Democrats. We currently estimate Democrats will win ~57% of the two-party House vote and ~255-260 seats - the best House vote share for either party since Watergate, and likely the biggest majority in more than 30 years.
Image from David Shor (@davidshor)
568
In light of all the bad ICE behavior, seems like a reasonable moment to pass (1) a version of Section 1983 applicable to federal officers, perhaps with (2) a damages cap on both statutes to get the Republican votes needed to push it through. Put Bivens to rest.
1
397
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Hope (@TheGhostOfHope) profile picture
Hope
@TheGhostOfHopeNov 4
This might go down as one of the best political ads I’ve ever seen.
Scott Colom (@scott_colom) profile pictureScott Colom
@scott_colomOct 13
She done lost her damn mind.
47
903
9
14,714
444,267
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Conor Rogers (@conorjrogers) profile picture
Conor Rogers
@conorjrogersNov 4
Austin Texas sounds like an Eastern European city that just overthrew a dictator
1,901
31,364
2,069
230,702
6,105,086
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) profile picture
Andrew Kaczynski
@KFILENov 4
Beto, Stacy Abrams, and Andrew Gillum watching the results
Image from Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE)
18
121
3
1,977
37,762
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Drew Cline (@DrewHampshire) profile picture
Drew Cline
@DrewHampshire23h
Kansas last elected a Dem to the US Senate in 1932. What was important about 1932? Republicans passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930, and in '32 voters had the 1st chance to respond to its effects. Dems gained 97 House, 12 Senate seats, 11 governorships & the presidency.
10
242
21
1,324
55,789
Jonathan Judge retweeted
David Weigel (@daveweigel) profile picture
David Weigel
@daveweigelNov 4
Looks like Dems will end up with 9 North Carolina seats on a map gerrymandered to reduce them to 3 seats.
Jon Michael Raasch (@JMRaasch) profile pictureJon Michael Raasch
@JMRaaschNov 4
From a GOP strategist: “The NRCC chair is about to lose his race. Couldn’t be a worse night for Republicans than that.” “It’s all James Blair, LaCivita’s, and Chris Grant’s fault. 100%” Congressman Rich Hudson, NRCC boss, is currently down to his Democratic challenger
Image from Jon Michael Raasch (@JMRaasch)
37
537
45
3,195
171,672
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Drew Savicki (@DrewSav) profile picture
Drew Savicki
@DrewSavNov 4
Dummymander moment: Democrats are going to win 10/14 congressional districts in North Carolina on map that was drawn to be 11-3 Republican.
56
1,273
101
12,273
264,875
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Sam Herbst (@smhrbst) profile picture
Sam Herbst@smhrbstNov 4
LOOKS LIKE WOKE’S BACK ON THE MENU THEYS
Image from Sam Herbst (@smhrbst)
191
11,836
146
117,969
1,738,201
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) profile picture
Tim Alberta
@TimAlbertaNov 4
Did some 8pm vibe checks. GOP operative in Texas replies with one word: “cataclysmic”
16
134
8
1,378
74,400
Well now we know why the Rs didn’t want to answer your polls.
3
498
Bottoms Up, folks
VoteHub (@VoteHub) profile pictureVoteHub
@VoteHubNov 4
As Ossoff takes his Senate seat, WinCast only estimates Bottoms to win by 1.8 points. This race is getting close.
Image from VoteHub (@VoteHub)
4
711
Does anybody have any early exit poll data?
5
1
2
1,705
Wording of this is interesting. Did the Brewers want to bring May back? Or were the Brewers willing to bring Gary back? The language on who rejected whom in the mutual options is different.
Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) profile pictureMilwaukee Brewers
@BrewersNov 2
We've made the following transactions
Image from Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers)
1
1,520
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Zack Cooper (@zackcooperYale) profile picture
Zack Cooper
@zackcooperYaleNov 2
Want to know why health care spending on the privately insured is going up? ABC News did a deep dive and got it 100% right. They flag: increasing use of AI (upcoding); more GLP-1 use; decreased use of prior auths (volume); and price increases from gains in market power, tariffs, and rising labor costs. The other frustrating part: pharma blames hospitals, hospitals blame insurers and pharma, insurers blame hospitals and pharma...all are part of problem (and solution) abcnews.com/Health/americans…
Many Americans are worried about healthcare costs as midterms approach. Why do they keep rising?

Many Americans are worried about healthcare costs as midterms approach. Why do they keep rising?

As many U.S. voters worry about healthcare costs, experts tell ABC News there are many reasons why costs may be rising.

abcnews.com
22
39
6
111
27,947
Jonathan Judge retweeted
Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) profile picture
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17Nov 2
Our final model newsletter finds a light at the end of the tunnel for the Republicans. It's a train. P(Dem Senate) = 77% (53D-47R) P(Dem House) = 92% (239D-196R) theargumentmag.com/p/republi…
Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel. It’s a train.

Republicans see a light at the end of the tunnel. It’s a train.

The last model update is here.

theargumentmag.com
29
263
27
3,287
362,318
Load more