Portfolio manager at https://xitter.cf/t.co/9L2cdsF1kC and AFR Contributing Editor
Sydney
Joined July 2009
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christopher joye retweeted
It’s hard to imagine a woman less suited to our times. The world is burning from an excess of indulgence, gentle parenting and a 60s libertarian fad for chucking unwell people out of asylums. Meanwhile, Sydney University hires an empathiser in chief. Yes, I’m sure some more head-titled nodding will heal what ails us.
Jacinda Ardern: Former New Zealand prime minister appointed professor of practice at the University of Sydney smh.com.au/national/nsw/from…
christopher joye retweeted
May the bloodthirsty warmongers, who push for a war that never ends, burn in hell!
Elon Musk warned about the Ukraine war years ago, and it's absolutely tragic how accurately he predicted the devastating cost of human lives from this conflict
Back in October 2022, Elon didn't just call for peace. He actually proposed a peace plan involving UN-supervised votes in occupied regions, recognizing Crimea as Russian, guaranteeing its water supply, and Ukraine remaining neutral
He warned that continuing this war would bring devastating death and destruction, with countless young Ukrainians and Russians losing their lives
And look at what's happened since then
More than 2 MILLION military casualties, entire cities destroyed, millions of people forced from their homes, and the war is still going on with no lasting peace
Elon faced enormous backlash for proposing a path toward peace, but the human cost he warned about has become an absolutely horrifying reality
And that's what makes this so tragic. These are human beings with parents, families, loved ones, and entire lives ahead of them, not disposable pieces on some geopolitical chessboard
How many more young people have to die in trenches before ending this endless slaughter becomes just as important as deciding who wins the war?
Elon saw the devastating human cost of a prolonged war coming years ago, and instead of taking his warning seriously, people attacked him for even putting a peace proposal on the table
Just imagine how many lives could have been saved if a lasting peace had been reached years earlier
How much more death and destruction will it take before ending this meat grinder becomes the priority??
christopher joye retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
christopher joye retweeted
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
Why NextDC never suited Coolabah's portfolios bit.ly/4yFMGUG
Current Aussie housing crash is the worst ever recorded since 1980 - national capital city prices are currently falling at a 16% annualised pace based on the last three months of Cotality data...
christopher joye retweeted
The U.S. has a trillion dollar defense budget
It also has dudes like this, just in case
Writer: Michael
christopher joye retweeted
Australia will experience the greatest property crash since the Great Depression, possibly even greater than the great Melbourne Land Boom Crash of the 1890’s where prices crashed 50%+ in real terms.
A depression and high unemployment followed both.
christopher joye retweeted
This is what ideological capture looks like. Same woman who said an Islamist attack had nothing to do with religion 🤪She is unfit to be leading the federal police.
Australian Federal Police commissioner Krissy Barrett just tried to say that Pauline Hanson’s cartoon series was morally responsible for the far-left terrorist attack on Helen Haines.
She needs to resign. Labor obviously put her up to this to try push the Digital Duty of Care bill and censorship against the Australian right. Just sickening attempts to weaponise a far-left terror attack to destroy the Australian right with censorship.
We literally have the attacker’s Twitter account. He had TEN THOUSAND left wing tweets and they are still trying to pin this on the right. They were itching from the very first seconds of the attack to blame this on the right to justify censorship against right wingers.
christopher joye retweeted
The European protests aren’t a consequence of poorly run immigration only. They are a combination of resentments which intersect at the juncture of powerlessness. The young migrants and the young Europeans have had the same hoax played on them. The maternalistic social state promised them everything, but it can’t give them the one thing they crave: the wherewithal to make a life without the state.
My column:
smh.com.au/world/europe/riot…
christopher joye retweeted
The Sydney housing market is indeed in deep trouble. – at Galston, New South Wales
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 24.6% (30.8% last weekend)
- Melbourne 40.9% (36.7%)
Sydney absolutely collapses to its worst result since my records began.
If this is reflected in SQM's results come Tuesday, this is a market deeply in trouble.
Melbourne a strong bounce vs last week and a massive divergence developing between the two cities.
Although to what degree the now required auction disclosure rules in Victoria could be boosting clearance rates is unclear.
Overall auction volumes in both locales remain depressed compared with this time last year, which is playing a major role in supporting the market.
Without this factor results would be significantly worse.
If you want the normal full round up let me know in the comments, I'm out for the night.
Both cities markets remain in a deeply challenging place and on these numbers within the zone of major price falls.
Methodology in graphic below.
I produce this data entirely unpaid, so if you would like to make a one off contribution to support this effort you can do so here: buymeacoffee.com/tarric #AvidAuctions
christopher joye retweeted
🇺🇸🇨🇳 China is no longer expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy anytime soon, marking a major shift from predictions made over the past two decades.
For years, economists expected China's rapid growth to continue until its economy surpassed America's, with some forecasts predicting that would happen before 2020.
But those predictions have repeatedly been pushed back.
According to Oxford Economics data, China's economy reached roughly 77% of U.S. GDP in 2021 before falling back to around 67% in 2025.
The latest forecast suggests China's economy will reach only about 84% of America's by 2040.
The comparison uses nominal GDP, measured in U.S. dollars, meaning exchange rates also influence the figures.
China's economic rise has been extraordinary, but the expectation that it would inevitably overtake the United States is looking increasingly uncertain.
Source: Financial Times / Oxford Economics / Writer: Mhedi
