“He who knows only his own side of a case, knows little of that" -JS Mill Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez Insulto=Bloqueo
Santiago
Joined July 2009
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(1/10) Happy to share our recently published article, in Latin American Politics & Society (open access), "Inside the Black Box: Uncovering Dynamics and Characteristics of the Chilean Central Government Bureaucracy with a Novel Dataset". doi.org/10.1017/lap.2023.41
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Report: In ‘unprecedented confrontation,’ IDF chief resisting carrying out military action ordered by Netanyahu relating to Iran
timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…
Daniel Brieba retweeted
If Lula wins tonight, it will elevate Rafael Fonteles, the governor of Piauí, who took over the campaign’s communication strategy after the first-round defeat. Young, moderate and just re-elected with almost 71% of the vote, he would emerge as a potential leader of the post-Lula left.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.
It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
O site @Estadao que acompanha ao vivo minhas projeções já está no ar. Derrubamos o paywall!
Assim que TSE começar a enviar dados, as projeções começam:
projecao.live/2026
A live no YT do jornal também vai mostrar, e vou participar às 16h30, aqui:
youtube.com/live/slpcnk3Y_nw…
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Reports on Brazilian TV of terrible chaos. Polling stations that had already closed their doors, reopening. Poll clerks completely confused. What a nightmare. Hard to say what the consequences might be, tonight and in the weeks and months ahead.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Brazil: the Supreme Court ordered voting to continue for two extra hours because of a shortage of buses in some cities, seemingly politically induced. This after 350,000 votes (0.25% of the total) had been counted.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Trump has systematically demolished every pillar of his support. In 2024 he created what could’ve been an enduring coalition by:
Winning over Hispanic voters
Winning a portion of Black voters
Huge margins with men, largely around prices and the promise not to start new wars and put America first.
He immediately:
Tried to gut the Voting Rights Act and boot Black Caucus members from Congress.
Terrorized Latino communities who wrongly thought he’d focus on deporting criminals and securing the border.
Waged a war on Iran at the behest of Israel and drove up the price of everything.
Systematically attacked every pillar of his support.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Resulta increíble que estén repitiendo el mismo error que con los swaps: redoblar una estrategia comunicacional equivocada (“hicimos lo prudente”), en lugar de reconocer la gravedad del problema y asumir responsabilidades.
Lo que está en juego es mucho más que una pérdida financiera, es la fe pública y la credibilidad de todo el sistema previsional. Se necesitan responsabilidades concretas y una renovación profunda de quienes han conducido este proceso. Su permanencia le hace un flaco favor aquellos que desmantelar el sistema de capitalización individual.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Some centrists fantasize that because all LLMs have the ideology of Ezra Klein, that we may be on the doorstep of a great political moderation.
I wrote about a fascinating paper from @ahall_research and Sho Miyazaki that, to my mind, opens the door to a very different outcome.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
By every measure, Opus 4.8 beats human experts as peer reviewers in a study of 124 Harvard social science papers covering a range from statistical analyses to formal models to qualitative work.
As academics, we need to figure out how to adapt the practice of science to AI, fast.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
The French situation is worse than the spread over German debt suggests, because German debt is no longer priced as risk free.
An alternative measure, the swap spread, looks even worse and is now higher than its highest daily close during the euro crisis
(chart shows weekly)
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Is Latin America finally moving up the global high-tech value chain? Some remarkable numbers suggest the region is making progress. A few highlights from a fascinating new @AmerQuarterly piece in collaboration with JP Morgan Private Bank:
• 🇲🇽 Mexico briefly overtook Taiwan as the largest supplier of advanced technology products to the U.S. in 2025. In the first half of 2026, its high-tech exports to the U.S. surged another 47% to $98.3 billion. The U.S. now gets 40% of its server imports from Mexico.
• 🇧🇷 Brazil is emerging as a major hub for AI infrastructure. Already home to 218 data centers, the world's 11th-largest total, Brazil could see its capacity more than double by 2030. Its abundant renewable energy is a major competitive advantage.
• 🇨🇷 Costa Rica offers a compelling model for moving beyond commodity exports. Medical devices already account for roughly 40% of its exports, and the country is now building a semiconductor industry through partnerships among universities, government and multinational companies.
• 🇩🇴 The Dominican Republic is another country to watch. Its electronics exports grew 50% from 2018 to 2023, and its extensive free trade zone network could help it become a significant player in semiconductor assembly and testing.
• 🌎 The bigger picture: Latin America's exports of information and communications technology services nearly DOUBLED from 2020 to 2024. The region has a real opportunity to capture more of the global AI boom—but sustained gains will depend on education, R&D, energy infrastructure and smart public policy.
More from Nur Cristiani and Rich Brown in @AmerQuarterly:
americasquarterly.org/articl…
Daniel Brieba retweeted
New paper: "AI Article Reviews Dominate Human Peer Reviews at Their Best: Evidence and Policy Choices" See: GaryKing.org/peerless. with Steven Worthington. Comments welcome!
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Aside from the shocking substance of this story, what's amazing is how it was unearthed by Cole. The short version: The Russians were able to penetrate Jared Kushner's iPhone and extract screenshots and data. Then, a Russian intel official was captured by Dutch intelligence (!) and flipped. The Dutch believed Kushner may have been acting on behalf of Russia, so pursued him as an intel target and were able to get into his phone.
They did not find any evidence of Russian collusion, instead they watched him moving hundreds of millions of dollars from slush funds created by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, one of them housed in Israel's central bank.
Incredible reporting, and if Democrats have any sense, they will pull on these threads and learn a lot more about this money.
Explosive story many years in the making, now out in Vanity Fair by Matthew Cole (who will be on Breaking Points next week, and publishing soon in @DropSiteNews):
Saudi Arabia and the UAE set up multi-billion slush funds for Jared Kushner to use.
Iran-Contra 2 here (except with Iran-Contra, at least the US got some hostages released. Not clear what we got out of this one.)
Daniel Brieba retweeted
BREAKING: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley are scrambling after detecting unauthorized AI agents accessing customer bank accounts, contacting call centers, and reportedly attempting actions WITHOUT instructions from account holders, according to Axios.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Lo más impúdico del tema AFP es que no me consta que nadie haya siquiera pedido disculpas. En este país somos alérgicos a la responsabilidad y un grupo se siente inmune al escarnio.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
Temazo.
Cuando Kast nombró a Joaquín Cortez superintendente de Pensiones, en marzo de 2026, las advertencias fueron públicas e inmediatas. La Confederación de Sindicatos Bancarios cuestionó que se entregara la fiscalización de las AFP a alguien formado dentro de la industria. El exsuperintendente Alejandro Ferreiro preguntó por qué se reemplazaba a quien estaba implementando la reforma. Varios medios detallaron sus vínculos con ProVida y Habitat. Igual se nombró.
Esto no expone solo a Cortez. Expone al cargo. Hoy el superintendente debe fiscalizar a personas con las que compartió oficina, directorio y negocios. Es un conflicto de interés evidente: cualquier decisión suya sobre esas AFP queda bajo sospecha, sea correcta o no.
🔹 ProVida (2010–2013). Cortez fue gerente de inversiones y luego presidente del directorio. Cristóbal Torres trabajaba en su área y ascendió a gerente de inversiones bajo su presidencia. Jorge Marshall era director en ese directorio. Hoy ambos son directores de ProVida.
ProVida ya llevaba US$624 millones perdidos en derivados a fines de mayo.
🔹 Asociación de AFP (2021–2023). Mientras Cortez presidía la CMF (Comisión para el Mercado Financiero, el regulador de bancos, aseguradoras y mercado de valores), su cuñada Alejandra Cox presidía el gremio de las AFP.
🔹 Grupo Habitat (2022–2026). Cortez fue director de Colfondos, la filial colombiana de Habitat, y asesor externo de Habitat. En esa junta estaba Felipe Imbarack, hoy gerente de Finanzas de Habitat. En el mismo grupo trabajaba León Fernández de Castro, hoy presidente de la Asociación de AFP, entonces gerente de Planificación y Desarrollo de Habitat (2016–2025) y director de Colfondos.
Habitat ya llevaba US$512 millones perdidos en derivados a fines de mayo.
🔹 Marzo de 2026. Cortez deja esos cargos y asume como superintendente. Ese mismo mes, Fernández de Castro, recién salido de Habitat, asume como presidente de la Asociación de AFP.
En un mercado chico, todos se conocen; eso no es delito. El error es no sopesarlo. Al nombrar a alguien con lazos tan recientes con las AFP que debe fiscalizar, el Gobierno lo expuso a él y debilitó al cargo. Cada decisión terminará discutiendo sus vínculos y no las pérdidas de los afiliados. Nadie pide un regulador que no conozca la industria. Se pide uno con independencia, transparencia sobre sus vínculos y disposición a abstenerse cuando corresponda. Un regulador no solo tiene que ser íntegro: tiene que parecerlo.
Daniel Brieba retweeted
SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios.
The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios.
Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said.
Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior.
Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
