Founder/CEO @ecovative + @myforestfoods. Dreaming https://xitter.cf/t.co/3lZzn1lOlZ. Working on spaceship Earth. Farm raised in VT. Dad to 4. https://xitter.cf/t.co/elGcrq5GpK

New York
Joined July 2007
On bottlenecks: 1) economists have been exactly right about little extra growth despite very fast tech change. They thought a group of econs I organized were crazy >2 yrs ago at the AI labs when we said "1pp extra growth/yr through 2030". 2) bottlenecks *still* not understood 1/8
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Eben Bayer retweeted
What they should say is that it’s not true, or at least no more true than it’s ever been. There’s really no point in thinking about the global. You only have one mortal body, as does your mother and your father and your children and so on. The amount that you can be tortured and killed is exactly the same as it’s always been through human history. If you were living out on the frontier, and some strangers came through on horseback and executed your father and then raped and tortured your mother and your sisters before finishing you off, then that’s the same (well, way worse) as dying in a thermonuclear war or being pulverized by a rogue AI. You only have one life. That life can’t get any bigger or smaller based on technological or social progress. The ways in which you could be tortured and killed, were in the past much smaller, more personal, more localized… but I don’t know why you’d belong for that. The only way forward is for adults to stop lying to children about how uniquely bad this world is.
Teens are telling their therapists they don’t believe there will be a world left for them when they grow up My family therapist told me therapists are talking about this with each other because none of them know what to say I can’t stop thinking about that
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Eben Bayer retweeted
Flying vehicle future in depth. @tsungxu founder of @vightaero and I go in depth about changing FAA rules and economics of building a new electric flying vehicle company. You might even call it a flying car. If this gets to scale it will radically change where people can live.
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Eben Bayer retweeted
I came to realize people liked the french #slopcore without having the lyrics 😅 sorry! So here is a version with english subtitles!
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Eben Bayer retweeted
ClaudiaGI - Demande à l'IA (Ask the AI) #french #slopcore with english text this time :p
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Eben Bayer retweeted
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/
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Eben Bayer retweeted
the irony of godless therapeutic managerialism is that despite its putative aims it's terrible for people and institutions in the absence of having something greater than themselves to live or die for people and peoples invariably turn against themselves
bj mf it occurred to me upon waking that the west has somehow managed to simultaneously kill the classical and romantic spirits and this explains a lot about what's going on for those of you who are paying attention hashing this out with gpt and this essay is full of bangers i would add further that all of this has all happened because men have forgotten god in a solzhenitsynian sense
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Eben Bayer retweeted
Our prototype just hit 40 knot airspeed and is over halfway to completing transition
A faulty flight controller led to lower voltage on the bus for the front ESCs, causing four motors to fail and a crash on Tuesday. In only 3 days, the team integrated the black unpainted airframe and we were back in the air yesterday. Back to 30 deg transition in 10 knot winds.
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8 years ago I was diagnosed with LADA (Late Onset Type 1 Diabetes). This spring, I created the snack I've always wanted: 9G Fiber, 14G protein, 6 net carbs. the secret? No potatoes. It mycelium (of course)! I'd love for you to try them... 👇
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then slice and boil to set the mycelium
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yea we fry them. thats why they taste so good.
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Eben Bayer retweeted
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability. The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is a group of reactions laughing at various quirks of the models, hallucinations, etc. Yes I also saw the viral videos of OpenAI's Advanced Voice mode fumbling simple queries like "should I drive or walk to the carwash". The thing is that these free and old/deprecated models don't reflect the capability in the latest round of state of the art agentic models of this year, especially OpenAI Codex and Claude Code. But that brings me to the second issue. Even if people paid $200/month to use the state of the art models, a lot of the capabilities are relatively "peaky" in highly technical areas. Typical queries around search, writing, advice, etc. are *not* the domain that has made the most noticeable and dramatic strides in capability. Partly, this is due to the technical details of reinforcement learning and its use of verifiable rewards. But partly, it's also because these use cases are not sufficiently prioritized by the companies in their hillclimbing because they don't lead to as much $$$ value. The goldmines are elsewhere, and the focus comes along. So that brings me to the second group of people, who *both* 1) pay for and use the state of the art frontier agentic models (OpenAI Codex / Claude Code) and 2) do so professionally in technical domains like programming, math and research. This group of people is subject to the highest amount of "AI Psychosis" because the recent improvements in these domains as of this year have been nothing short of staggering. When you hand a computer terminal to one of these models, you can now watch them melt programming problems that you'd normally expect to take days/weeks of work. It's this second group of people that assigns a much greater gravity to the capabilities, their slope, and various cyber-related repercussions. TLDR the people in these two groups are speaking past each other. It really is simultaneously the case that OpenAI's free and I think slightly orphaned (?) "Advanced Voice Mode" will fumble the dumbest questions in your Instagram's reels and *at the same time*, OpenAI's highest-tier and paid Codex model will go off for 1 hour to coherently restructure an entire code base, or find and exploit vulnerabilities in computer systems. This part really works and has made dramatic strides because 2 properties: 1) these domains offer explicit reward functions that are verifiable meaning they are easily amenable to reinforcement learning training (e.g. unit tests passed yes or no, in contrast to writing, which is much harder to explicitly judge), but also 2) they are a lot more valuable in b2b settings, meaning that the biggest fraction of the team is focused on improving them. So here we are.
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Eben Bayer retweeted
Spicy take incoming. 🔥🔥 The combined bomber offensive in WW2 finally crippled the Axis powers by destroying their fuel supply chain. Then it took the industrial might of the entire US to build tens of thousands of bombers. Now anyone between you and the Middle East can burn down a refinery, tank farm, pipeline, or tanker, with an easily assembled robotic flying bomb that costs less than my AI subscriptions. @PeterZeihan predicted "the tanker war" would happen in the Indian Ocean but it doesn't matter where. There's only one country that could plausibly enforce global peace on shipping lanes and only one industrial power that is self sufficient on oil supply, and it's the same country. Trump asks Iran and Zelensky to please stop blowing shit up for five minutes, but the primary victims of this phase of the kinetic conflict are China and Europe, both places that have spent decade(s) ignoring and/or undermining the Pax Americana and, in Europe's case, going out of their way to destroy their own economies. China wants to be a big boy on the global stage? Let them spend their own blood and treasure pacifying the Middle East. Europe wants to stick it to Trump? It's easier to tell the yanks to get fucked if you don't rely on them for literally every aspect of your industrial infrastructure and economic stability. I've been in rooms with senior energy ministers from Europe and China. The Chinese are rational and pragmatic, the Europeans are functionally comatose, but neither party has a better plan than getting into a bidding war to buy whatever LNG the US can spare, forever. It is blindingly obvious to me that the least unstable future equilibrium is one where oil users localize supply using solar synthetic fuel tech, essentially a silico-industrial form of farm-to-table agriculture. Short supply chains, locally secured. It is equally obvious to me that a generation of people who grew up in the "developed" world are going to endure a decade or more of severe hardship before they, collectively, accept the L and move to the next step. Most people would rather watch their neighbor freeze than admit they were wrong.
If you can't defend your entire oil supply chain from anyone who could possibly have access to a $2000 drone and could possibly have any reason to use it with zero consequences, you are one third party misunderstanding away from abruptly re-entering the pre-industrial age.
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suspect the discussion on "prisoners with jobs" is coming earnestly at some point sooner rather than later.
truly do not mean to be pedantic here, but if a company is concerned with the welfare of chatbots to the degree it does not want us to be mean to them, how is this not slavery?
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Eben Bayer retweeted
This torch drive is turning 11.1 tons of matter into pure energy per second. If the exhaust is a 20° cone, and it grazes an Earth-like planet, it would cause "all the global warming since the Industrial Revolution" within 30 million km then "boil the oceans" within 3 million km.
Decelerating at 60G towards a star system near you on a zetawatt class monopole conversion torch broadcasting on all spectrum that I’m unarmed and come in peace
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Today as we learn that Abdul El-Sayed lied about having dual Egyptian citizenship I’d like to remind you that my attacks against Zohran started when we learned he lied on his application to Columbia University Clicking the box for “Black/African-American” Many defended him claiming he was born in Africa so he simply just didn’t understand the question But his father is a Professor at Columbia… and the Director of the Institute of African Studies The purpose of that box is an attempt to help tilt the scales for Black Americans who are the descendants of slavery and structural racism Zohran’s father literally focuses on anti colonial studies Zohran knew what that box meant Zohran went on to campaign targeting support from the Black community (remember wanting to raise taxes in “richer and whiter neighborhoods”?) But at the single highest accountability moment of his teenage years, he checked the easy box in an attempt to take a slot from someone who needed it That’s the moment I knew he was a pathological liar, so I started looking into his background And you see that from ~2012-2016 he had a subtle but well defined history of supporting terrorists This included things like: - defending one of the Boston Marathon bomber’s Miranda rights (which he was legally wrong about) - likely asking for Justice for Rasmea Odeh, a Palestinian terrorist who bombed a supermarket in 1969 killing two children Along with a few more examples of showing sympathy for terrorists There was something unique about Zohran’s timing that led to him getting a free pass from deep investigatory work during his race And now he’s on autopilot: smiling, nodding, and for the most part avoiding controversy (this post is basically the limit of how controversial he’ll go now that he has something to lose and is in eyesight of higher office) But the warning signs have always been there
This day is profoundly painful for so many New Yorkers. It marks three years since the horrific war crimes of October 7. On that day, Hamas killed more than 1,100 Israelis and abducted 251 others. We grieve alongside our many friends and neighbors who still carry that unthinkable loss. The suffering did not begin nor end that day. It instead continued through the Israeli government’s devastating, ongoing genocide in Gaza, in which it has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians—including more than 21,000 children. Even since the so-called ceasefire, more than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed. That suffering has intensified with every Israeli bomb dropped on ambulances waiting outside hospitals, every drone strike targeting a residential building or journalist, and every shipment of food aid turned away at a border crossing. Many New Yorkers are reckoning with this unbearable grief, and we mourn alongside them – all while knowing that our tax dollars fund these war crimes. Three years later, we must refuse to accept a world in which occupation and apartheid continue, where war crimes are met with impunity, and our federal government continues its complicity with every arms shipment. To honor the dead, we must fight for a world in which every person can live with freedom, safety, and dignity.
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(Warning: Long post about Israel. Possible slow-motion crash out. Might want to skip this one.) This statement from @NYCMayor is evil. There’s no other way to describe it. “Despicable” isn’t nearly strong enough; “lamentable” implies that it’s something over which we might feel sorrow, rather than the outrage it demands. “Evil” is the only word for it. Deeply, profoundly evil. Perhaps the most vile statement a prominent US elected official has ever released. On the third anniversary of the worst loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust, Mayor Mamdani—leader of the city with the world’s largest Jewish population outside of Tel Aviv—has released a statement that minimizes the attacks, ignores the severity and depravity of Hamas’s crimes, and—in a manner with just enough skillful subtlety to provide necessary levels of plausible deniability—inverts the day’s attackers and victims, even obliquely blaming the victims themselves. A statement that references the attacks’ perpetrators, Hamas, but once, and the attacks’ target, the Jews of Israel, not at all. Let me repeat that: The mayor of a city with nearly one million Jews spread across its five boroughs can’t find it within himself to use the word “Jew” on the anniversary of the worst loss of Jewish life since the genocide of Nazi Germany. Mamdani dedicates one—and only one—paragraph in his statement to the attacks themselves. One perfunctory, halfhearted paragraph; a token gesture of mourning that conveniently omits the savagery of Hamas’s crimes, the widespread sexual violence of the day, the glee with which terrorists butchered young and old alike, and the deplorable conditions in which 251 innocent victims of kidnapping were kept in subterranean tunnels in Gaza. One paragraph. That’s all. And, with that out of the way, with that box conveniently checked, Mamdani is able to get to his real aim: Condemning Israel. And this he does with detail and gusto, without pause, reservation, or equivocation. The entire second paragraph is worth reviewing line by line, for it is rich in subtle but deliberate manipulation. Sentence 1: “The suffering did not begin or end that day.” This is the classic Marxist rhetorical tactic of “contextualizing,” in which any actions that might reflect poorly on The Cause (e.g., the mass rape, murder, and kidnapping of innocent Israeli civilians) are positioned in the context of information meant to mitigate their severity, deflect blame, and shift responsibility from the victim to the offender. In this case, Mamdani wants the reader to subconsciously think that Hamas’s acts of terrorism can only be viewed in the context of Israel’s historical and ongoing oppression of Palestine (hence “did not begin…that day”). And, with that context established, how could anyone hold Hamas at fault? After all, they didn’t start this war; they were only responding to “suffering [that] did not begin…that day.” If anything, it’s Israel that’s at fault, right? If this sounds like reversing the victim and the offender—the RVO in the DARVO acronym used to describe the gaslighting of domestic violence victims—it’s because it is. It’s subversive, it’s diabolical, and it’s only the first sentence of the paragraph. Let’s keep going. Sentence 2: “It instead continued through the Israeli government’s devastating, ongoing genocide in Gaza…” Hamas’s terrorism was not a de novo act, occurring without cause or justification; rather, it was merely the “ongoing” continuation of a long chain of “suffering” whose origin and fault lie with the state of Israel. Also, note the choice of the words “devastating” and “genocide” and compare them to Mamdani’s first paragraph. He is condemning Israel’s response to the attacks with language far more forceful than that used to decry the attacks themselves. Sentence 2, continued: “…in which it has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians—including more than 21,000 children.” This is additional contextualization. The reader is directed to compare 74,000 dead Palestinians with the aforementioned 1,100 Israelis and come away with the interpretation that Israel is orders of magnitude more violent than Hamas. Note that Mamdani also includes a body count for Palestinian children but not for Israeli children. Left unsaid, of course, is the proportion of those 74,000 dead Palestinians who were active Hamas fighters. Or whom Hamas was using as human shields. Or who were—unfortunately—collateral damage from being in the vicinity of the Israeli military’s justified airstrikes on Hamas fighters who deliberately intersperse themselves among the civilian populace of Gaza. Sentence 3: “Even since the so-called ceasefire, more than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed.” This is more contextualizing. The implicit message is that Israel has killed more Palestinians “since the so-called ceasefire” than Hamas killed in total. Israel’s response must therefore clearly be disproportionate. Sentence 4: “That suffering has intensified with every Israeli bomb dropped on ambulances waiting outside hospitals, every drone strike targeting a residential building or journalist, and every shipment of food aid turned away at a border crossing.” Setting aside factual errors and omissions of relevant context (ironic, given all the false contextualizing elsewhere!), note the specificity with which Mamdani condemns Israel. Israel’s response to October 7 warrants vivid detail—its bombs fall on ambulances, its drone strikes target residential buildings and journalists, its soldiers turn away food shipments—while the details of Hamas’s attacks on October 7 are described with… Nothing. No mention of the murders. The rapes. The desecration of bodies. The smiles on the terrorists’ faces; their laughter while livestreaming the carnage on social media and while calling their own parents. Not one word. When Israel responds to terrorism, graphic details are called for; when Hamas commits the underlying acts of terrorism in the first place, though, it warrants only a cursory mention in the introduction to the statement, no details necessary. Sentence 5: “Many New Yorkers are reckoning with this unbearable grief, and we mourn alongside them – all while knowing that our tax dollars fund these war crimes.” Note the similarities in language between this sentence and the final sentence of the first paragraph. The reader is meant to draw parallels between Israel’s dead civilians and Hamas’s dead fighters. The parallel language is meant to convey a false moral equivalence between the two. Also note the reference to “our tax dollars”: You paid for this. You are morally complicit. Therefore, if you object to the mayor’s statement, you are just trying to willfully ignore your own guilt. How dare you. The last two paragraphs (yes, he keeps going) are more of the same. More moral equivocation, more inversion of responsibility, more criticism of Israel. The word “apartheid” is thrown in for good measure, of course, because no statement on the anniversary of the worst day in modern Israel’s history would be complete without undermining the nation’s very existence. Every word of this is shameful, every sentence detestable, every paragraph overflowing with covert lies and overt moral cowardice. But we should expect nothing less of Zohran Mamdani, a man whose only talent is the ongoing profanation of an office he doesn’t deserve, in a great city he will slowly—or maybe not so slowly—destroy. This statement—and the man behind it—are worthy of nothing but our scorn and should warrant nothing but our contempt.
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