It is possible to converse, disagree, and still be respectful. I urge you to try it sometime, you may even find you like it.
Joined March 2010
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Russia continues to strike targets in Moldova & Romania as well as enter their airspace and overfly military targets. These are just the incidents we hear about publicly. For all the public warnings about Russia acting in the Baltics the response to these incursions is lacking.
exit266 retweeted
The russian drone detector Frontera, made by "NPO Apogei" uses a small neural net to give a classification for a specific band sweep. It doesn't use I/Q, rather "bins".
I extracted the models out and built a detector based on B210 Mini SDR.
Analog 5.8 GHz detection:
exit266 retweeted
I pulled the public orbital elements on all three satellites in the viral "SpaceX froze a NATO spy satellite so Russia could intercept it" brief and ran the numbers myself. The data shows two ordinary things happened. The explosive story welded onto them isn't supported, and in specific, checkable places it's flatly false.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED (public Space-Track elements, SGP4):
1) A Russian inspector satellite, COSMOS 2612, made a close co-orbital approach to the commercial radar satellite ICEYE-X36. It closed to tens of meters at ~0 m/s on 16-18 Oct, then withdrew. Same orbital plane (incl 97.85°), and it actively maneuvered to get there. This is a real, notable Russian proximity operation. It required ZERO SpaceX involvement, because Russia tracks and maneuvers with its own sensors.
2) A Starlink (STARLINK-35856) had a routine conjunction with ICEYE-X36, ~0.45 km on 16 Oct 23:54 UTC. Real, but ordinary. Starlink sits in a totally different plane (incl 70° vs 98°), so this was a ~15 km/s crossing that lasts seconds. Every object in LEO gets these constantly.
That's the whole factual content. Everything else is refuted by the data or isn't an orbital measurement at all.
WHAT THE DATA REFUTES:
❌ "Intercept / immobilized / kill." All three satellites are on orbit and intact right now (elements epoch 25-26 Oct). ICEYE-X36 is alive and tracked. Cosmos 2612 withdrew to ~490 km and is still drifting away. A close approach that ends in withdrawal is an inspection, not a kinetic intercept.
❌ "X36 dodged a Russian approach in June, so it had to be frozen this time." Neither half happened. Cosmos 2612 never came within 50 km of X36 until 16 Oct. In June they were thousands of km apart. And X36 shows no June maneuver: smooth drag decay, with weekly averages falling from 546.1 to 545.0 km and a largest single step of -433 m (noise). A real 0.5 km avoidance burn would be a clean -500 m step. There is none.
❌ "SpaceX pinned/froze X36 in place." X36 never maneuvers, period. Over 165 days it deviates from its natural decay curve by no more than 278 m and holds inclination to 0.022°. There was nothing to "pin." It's a passively decaying microsat. For contrast, Cosmos 2612 shows a 47.8 km altitude burn in a single day. That is what a real maneuver looks like in the data.
❌ "SpaceX inflated the danger 5x, claiming the real distance was 1.9-2.0 km." Independent public elements give ~0.45 km for the Starlink pass, consistent with the ~0.4 km figure cited, not 1.9-2.0 km. That "5x safer" claim needs SpaceX's private ephemerides that no one outside SpaceX can see, and the public data points the opposite way.
CREDIT WHERE DUE: the brief's raw archive numbers are real. The TLE update gaps and the conjunction time match my own pull. But multi-hour public TLE gaps are routine for every LEO object, and SpaceX having good space tracking is public knowledge used for collision avoidance. Neither is evidence of collusion.
WHAT ORBITAL DATA CAN'T SETTLE: "coordination" with Russia, collision-alert intent, Starlink throttling, the 23% figure, Iran, finances. Those are assertions, not measurements. The brief's "99.9% probability" is that inference restated as a number, and several of its load-bearing inputs (the June evasion, the 5x inflation, "X36 could maneuver") are false, so it's garbage in.
Orbital data can't prove a negative on intent. I can't prove no one coordinated. What I can show is that the data provides no evidence for it and contradicts the specific mechanisms claimed.
Bottom line: a real Russian satellite inspection, which was already public and known, plus a routine Starlink flyby. Two unrelated events, one narrative bolted on top.
All checks from public Space-Track two-line elements via SGP4. Happy to share the numbers.
SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
The Math Proves the Reality that Musk doesn't want you to see.
On Oct 13-14, SpaceX restricted Starshield/Starlink during a 39-missile Russian attack, cutting Ukrainian drone intercepts by 23% and stranding U.S. personnel in Kyiv. Forty-eight hours later (Oct 15), SpaceX blocked U.S.-licensed NRO, Space Force, and NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 in orbit so Russia's COSMOS 2612 weapon could intercept it (99.89%-99.98% posterior)
Our Model Demonstrates that the Russian intercept of the US/NATO ICEYE X-36 satellite (contemporaneous with the throttling of Starlink) would not have been possible, and almost certainly not been attempted, without SpaceX resources. At a material opportunity cost, Russia sprinted its COSMOS satellite to intercept ICEYE X36. Based on a previous attempt in June during which X36 maneuvered to evade COSMOS, Russia knew that this would be successful only if X36 could not maneuver. On October 15, SpaceX fixed X36 in place by issuing a collision alert for a sub-kilometer approach with its Starlink 35856 when SpaceX's own data shows that the actual distance was 4.8-5.0x as great. SpaceX issued no warning to COSMOS despite the fact that its sprint was far more threatening than the stable X36 orbit. SpaceX did not maneuver its Starlink 35856 satellite to clear the supposed collision risk. How, absent coordination with SpaceX, could Russia have known that SpaceX would take actions that (a) misrepresented the danger posed by X36, and (b) resulted in the fixing of X36 thereby enabling COSMOS's successful intercept? Thus, SpaceX was directly involved in simultaneously compromising Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities. The conjunction of these two events makes innocent explanations untenable.
The Pentagon Capture & Iran Round Two Trap: Pentagon CTO Emil Michael who cashed out $7M–$35M from Musk’s inner-circle SpaceX vehicles (M8/Gigafund 0.1 and M6/Valor M33 II) and KQ Partners / xAI (selling xAIfor $5M–$25M three days before taking over CDAO/OSCand 21 days before SpaceX bought xAI, while keeping M8, M6, M9, M10 & Nomadic open) and Pete Hegseth purged rival Anthropic in two hours, surrendered combat command over US drones used to attack Iran to Starlink’s "Terms of Service," and on October 2 named Musk Co-Director of Project Meridian to design the Pentagon's "Future of Warfighting" just as America enters Iran Round Twowith depleted Patriot/THAAD magazines and Russia feeding U.S. warship/aircraft locations to Tehran.
SpaceX’s actions in Ukraine raise serious questions about its alignment with US security interests and its reliability as a cornerstone of US defense. These questions are particularly troubling given the effectively irreplaceable position SpaceX has been granted by the Hegseth/Emil Michael Pentagon.
$SPCX $TSLA
Our full quantitative analysis below w/ @streetwiseprof
exit266 retweeted
❗️Oleshky: Ceasefire Begins as Ukraine Fulfills Its Commitments
A ceasefire came into effect today at 3:00 a.m. Kyiv time (4:00 a.m. Moscow time) in designated areas related to the humanitarian mission.
☝️This is part of a humanitarian mission being carried out with the mediation and coordination of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump (@FLOTUS), in cooperation with Yana Lantratova, Russia’s Commissioner for Human Rights.
As head of the Ukrainian negotiating team, I confirm that the Ukrainian side is honoring its commitments. The agreements were reached during negotiations with Yana Lantratova, head of the Russian negotiating team.
‼️I will continue to keep the public informed of developments, with the safety of civilians in Oleshky and compliance with the agreed arrangements remaining our top priorities.
exit266 retweeted
A New Era of War: A Nine-Ton U.S. Helicopter Versus a Drone nytimes.com/2026/10/26/world…
exit266 retweeted
@SethGJones interview with MG Curtis Buzzard, who recently led SAG-U, is excellent. Particularly important are points about the professional duty to learn and implement relevant lessons from the war in Ukraine for the joint force.
youtu.be/lMrWw4NSSrY
exit266 retweeted
Based on the objective evidence, we can confirm the extensive damage to one of the production buildings of "Energiya" JSC in Yelets.
The photos show a large fire, significant smoke, and damage to the facade and interior spaces of the building on all floors. Given the extent of the visible damage, it is impossible for this building to continue operating.
52.602587, 38.505850
exit266 retweeted
Ukraine’s Sargan-3000 naval drone shot down a Russian Geran drone using a Sting interceptor launched from the vessel. The naval drone has a range of up to 1600 km, also shot down a Russian drone with a machine gun and destroyed a Russian naval drone. militarnyi.com/uk/news/sarga…
exit266 retweeted
SPOTTED: A Russian Kilo-class submarine in the High North, observed by Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1).
Anti-submarine warfare is a team effort. Ships, submarines, aircraft and helicopters from across the Alliance work together every day to detect, track and, if necessary, counter any threat beneath the surface. Our posture is defensive, our readiness is credible, and our resolve is clear: to deter aggression and keep our one billion people across Europe and North America safe.
exit266 retweeted
Armed Group Drone Attacks and State Counter-Drone Interceptions in West Africa (Credit @NiccolaMilnes)
militantwire.com/p/defending…
Defending Against Drones: State and Armed Group Responses in West Africa - by @NiccolaMilnes
militantwire.com/p/defending…
exit266 retweeted
Russian oil exports transportation costs rose with total costs from Novorossiysk going up 3 times to almost 900 000 USD per day. At the same time prices for Ural oil dropped 17,55-21,45 USD per barrel and export volumes by 17,5-20,3%.
This summit will likely come with pressure from African countries for Russia to agree to a Black Sea cease-fire in order to get grain moving from the region.
❗To consolidate its military-political and economic influence across the African continent, russia has stepped up its so-called “diplomatic contacts” ahead of the russia–Africa summit scheduled for October 28–29, 2026: gur.gov.ua/en/content/use-dl…
exit266 retweeted
We have been reporting on this coming together for some time, it’s incredibly important. More so than a new fighter or an additional destroyer every couple years. Absolutely critical, and becoming more so with each passing day. Yes it’s scary, but it’s far scarier not doing this
FORTRESS: The Pentagon is preparing every major U.S. military base to survive 90 days without outside support — no civilian power grid, no global supply chains, no outside fuel or water.
The initiative, revealed in documents reviewed by Fox News Digital, envisions portable nuclear reactors, massive battery storage, and microgrids that can disconnect installations from civilian electricity entirely. Strategic reserves of munitions, fuel, critical minerals, and medical supplies would be stockpiled based on wartime consumption rates. Civilian factories are being pre-identified to shift to defense production during a crisis.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell put it bluntly: "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures."
Full story here foxnews.com/politics/inside-…
A russian drone struck a lorry at one of DTEK’s coal mining enterprises in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight on 25 October, killing driver Vitalii Shcherbyna while he was on duty.
Vitalii had worked as a driver for 29 years, including 18 years at DTEK. Most recently, he drove a heavy-duty lorry.
During his time at DTEK, Vitalii was recognised on several occasions for his work and professionalism.
He leaves behind a son and daughter.
DTEK extends its condolences to Vitalii’s family, friends and colleagues.
exit266 retweeted
💥🚀 New footage released by local residents shows strike by eight Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles during the October 25 attack on Russia’s Energia plant in Yelets.
Missiles slam into the same spot one after another, with no visible air defense response. Witnesses claim eight missiles struck the facility.
Energia produces batteries for Russian missiles, aircraft, and other military equipment.
Combined with the October 23 Storm Shadow strike on Proton in Oryol, the scale of these attacks suggests Ukraine may have received a substantial new shipment of the missiles.
exit266 retweeted
'Today, after nearly five years of war, and 22 months of the second Trump administration, the mental map guiding Russian strategy has changed. First, Russia now sees Europe, instead of the United States, as its principal geopolitical adversary, a shift that has driven Russia’s defense establishment to call for an approach known as “castling” to deal with the main threats. Related to this, Moscow now attributes new strategic agency to Europe itself because of the dramatic military modernization taking place in many European countries and the growing interest among some European leaders in developing or extending their own nuclear deterrent. A third shift concerns Russia’s theory of deterrence: Moscow’s traditional understanding of nuclear coercion is giving way to new thinking about nonnuclear strategic deterrence using advanced conventional weapons systems aimed at Europe.
...
One of the most notable trends in Russian strategic thought over the past year has been the emergence of the idea of “castling.” A term borrowed from chess, castling in geopolitics describes the repositioning of forces and resources to optimize a state’s strategic posture. Moscow’s defense experts have used the concept to describe a strategy for dealing with a new reality: for the first time since World War II, they have argued, Europe, rather than the United States, has become Russia’s principal geopolitical adversary. According to this view, European countries are now the principal source of Ukraine’s military capacity, political resolve, and strategic resilience; it is Europe and not the United States that has made Ukraine its proxy and is encouraging Kyiv to pursue Moscow’s strategic defeat.
As a consequence, Moscow must direct coercive pressure at Europe—its elites, its decision-making centers, and its critical infrastructure. By doing so, Russia can instill into Europe’s calculus what theorists in Moscow call a “deterring fear”: a European reluctance to antagonize Russia through further support to Ukraine. Such action, they argue, can also rebuild Russian credible deterrence for long-term competition with the West, which is now centered on Europe.
....
Drawing on this experience, Russian military theoreticians center NNSD on using massive, deep, precision strikes against the adversary’s critical military, political, and economic infrastructure. The strategy, they suggest, should be aimed not only at Ukraine but also at its European supporters. Although the exact contours of NNSD are still emerging, the concept appears to be more escalatory than the hybrid warfare and deniable asymmetric campaigns that Russia is currently pursuing in Europe.'
exit266 retweeted
New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.
The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.
WSJ:
wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
exit266 retweeted
Ukraine and NATO have developed two AI models: one predicts Russian drone attacks using battlefield and weather data, while the other helps plan artillery operations. The first is ready for integration, while the second is being tested. mod.gov.ua/news/ukraina-i-na…
exit266 retweeted
Fortele Aeriene Romane confirma ca NU au retras pana acum niciun avion F-16 Fighting Falcon aflat in serviciu. Informatia eronata fusese publicata de AviatiaMagazin si preluata de DefenseRomania.
defenseromania.ro/premiera-i…
exit266 retweeted
Today we are unveiling Contra, an AI-controlled autonomous air defence system designed to protect countries from scaled drone and missile attacks.
Alongside Contra, two new interceptors:
AD-1 Inferno to counter jet-powered threats. AD-2 Ambush to counter high-altitude threats.
exit266 retweeted
“In 2025, before the large-scale winter attacks, local generation played a key role in supplying electricity to the city. According to sources at one of the energy companies who spoke to Ekonomichna Pravda, it may have accounted for as much as 1.3 GW. This came primarily from Kyiv CHP-5, CHP-6 and Darnytsia CHP (CHP-4) – combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) that produce both electricity and heat for the city's district heating network.
These plants are now no longer able to generate electricity…
In a relatively favourable scenario, energy workers will repair damaged equipment and new strikes will not cause critical losses. In that case, restrictions may be moderate, although avoiding power cuts altogether will be difficult. For consumers, this would mean 8-10 hours without electricity per day.
If the attacks continue and some equipment remains damaged, Kyiv could face longer power cuts during moderately cold spells. Under this scenario, outages could last 12-16 hours per day.
The worst-case scenario involves regular large-scale strikes on key substations and other elements of the power system amid severe frosts. In that case, restrictions could last up to 20 hours per day. However, sources in the energy sector interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda do not believe in a scenario in which the Russians would manage to destroy everything and ‘plunge Kyiv into darkness’.”
pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2…
