Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Join the call for Australia’s media companies to stand together by refusing to cover One Nation events until the access issue is resolved. Media companies should be insisting that One Nation accepts the attendance of ALL accredited journalists, not just the ones it perceives as unquestioning or supportive. We need a robust liberal democracy ... not a Trumpian perversion.
abcfriends.au/actions/boycot…
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
This is how it’s done! ✊ Howard Buffet, who is the son of the Omaha Oracle Billionaire Warren Buffet, has just donated $1.4 billion to Ukraine.🇺🇦
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Every time I live through yet another Brazilian election I can’t but marvel at an electoral system that can count 120 million votes in a single evening. Take a bow, Brazil
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
MORE: Putin is trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender. Putin constantly asserts that Russian forces are making gains along the entire frontline. He makes claims of territorial gains so far from reality as to be fantasy. He hearkens back to the Soviet Union and the Red Army to evoke images of Soviet hordes overrunning the German Wehrmacht. But these claims, images, and maps of supposed Russian gains are all fictional. Reality is quite the opposite.
SPECIAL REPORT: Russian military victory over Ukraine is not inevitable. It is extraordinarily unlikely, in fact, unless Western support for Ukraine collapses.
There is simply no inevitable correlation between the relative size of combatants and the outcome of a war — particularly when the war is existential for the smaller state but not for the larger one, as is true today.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is nevertheless trying once again to breathe life into the myth of inevitable Russian military victory in order to persuade the United States and other supporters of Ukraine to compel Kyiv to surrender.
Ukraine, not Russia, has actually held the initiative in key sectors of the frontline for much of the year and has developed a number of ways of offsetting the overall Russian manpower advantage.
Russia’s population and relative (but diminishing) wealth will let Putin continue his war for a long time, to be sure. But Ukraine can also continue fighting for its existence as long as Western support continues.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
I wrote the below after the first round in the Brazilian elections.
This is why Lula's victory tonight is celebrated around the world among nations who look to Brazilian leadership for the reinvigoration of international law.
What happens in Brazil won't stay in Brazil. Though the Brazilian people are casting their votes based on their own domestic considerations, their decisions will have global implications in a manner beyond those of all previous Brazilian elections.
Brazilian foreign policy has been unusually inclined to treat international law, sovereign equality, multilateral institutions, and peaceful dispute settlement as core principles, rather than mere aspirational goals.
Article 4 of Brazil's 1988 Constitution is quite remarkable. It explicitly prescribes principles such as human rights, self-determination, non-intervention, equality among states, and peaceful settlement of disputes. As such, "peaceful settlement" and "sovereign equality" are constitutional principles of Brazilian foreign policy.
It is not clear whether a Fávio Bolsonaro government will fully honor this crucial part of Brazil's constitution. His father was particularly critical of Brazil's traditional support for multilateralism, for instance.
And a shift in this specific area would come at a crucial point in history in which Brazil has emerged as one of the strongest and most principled supporters of multilateralism and international law, while European states have miserably failed to uphold these principles in recent years.
The fight to restore the centrality of international law and the UN Charter in international relations, reverse the trend in which norms around the use of force are weakened or hollowed out, and muster the political will to collectively address shared threats and challenges will be FAR MORE difficult without Brazil as a full and committed partner.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
“You will not speak Arabic here. Get out of our country.”
These were the words that sparked a violent attack on three young Arab men at a nightclub in Tel Aviv yesterday. All three are Israeli citizens. The confrontation continued outside the club, where one of them was stabbed and rushed to the hospital with serious injuries.
I keep thinking about these young men. I keep thinking about what must happen to a society before the language a person speaks becomes a reason to reach for a knife.
Such a moment does not create itself. Years of nationalist incitement and racism have helped make it possible. When Palestinians and Arabs are continually portrayed as threats, no one should imagine that the consequences will remain confined to Gaza or the West Bank.
In Gaza, we have endured years of bombardment, displacement, starvation, and the destruction of our hospitals. I have witnessed firsthand what political and military decisions mean for the people who must live with them: dead bodies, wounded children, entire families wiped out.
In the West Bank, settlements continue to expand, settler violence persists, and Palestinian lives become increasingly restricted as more of their land is taken over.
And now, in Tel Aviv, three young men are attacked for speaking their mother tongue.
I cannot regard these events as disconnected. Nor can I believe that replacing a single government will, by itself, undo what decades of political decisions and incitement have created.
In three days, Israelis will go to the polls.
For everyone who feels ashamed or outraged by what Israel’s political and social landscape has become, this moment demands an honest examination of what those feelings require of you.
You may condemn racism in a conversation. You may condemn incitement in a post. But what does that condemnation accomplish if the policies that continue to fuel them remain unchanged?
I have no illusions that a single election will end extremism. But political change does not begin with silence. And outrage that never moves beyond our phone screens leaves the people who suffer its causes exactly where they were.
The question is no longer simply whether you oppose what is happening. It is what you are prepared to do to prevent it from continuing.
The consequences of political decisions do not end at the ballot box. They enter people’s homes. They shape the futures of their children. For many, they determine whether there will be a future at all.
What you decide today will shape more than your own future. Its consequences will reach millions of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, people who have had no voice in those decisions but who may nevertheless be made to pay for them with their homes, their freedom, and their lives.
#Israel
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Lula just won in Brazil. Vuvic lost in Serbia. And Maria Corina Machado is back in Venezuela—hopefully to somehow face down Trump’s authoritarian Chavista oil concession viceroy.
Best day for democracy in a long while. Israeli democrats, you know what to do! Then US midterms 🤞
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
NEW: With increasing speculation that the United States and Israel may return to war with Iran in the coming day, many people are voicing concerns that the US and Israeli's may seek to strike power plants inside of Iran...
I'm concerned that it could go MUCH further in the days and weeks to come.
Airports. Bridges, rail lines, and roads. Water, grain, and medical supply storage.
The only POSSIBLE pathway to American "victory" in the Iran War is one that FUNDAMENTALLY seeks to maximize civilian suffering inside of Iran, with the hopes that the innocent civilians will become so desperate that they take up sticks and stones trying to topple to current government... Knowing full well that they are likely to be killed in the process.
The US and Israeli's are okay with that.
They don't CARE.
My latest analysis in @MeidasTouch explains the data points that I draw these potential target sets from.
meidasnews.com/news/the-crue…
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
משלל הדיווחים האחרונים עולה תמונה מטרידה, שלא לומר מבהילה.
על פניו, הולך ומתחזק החשש שבנימין נתניהו גמר אומר להשתמש בסוגיה האיראנית ככלי פוליטי, בין אם כדי לדחות את הבחירות ובין אם כדי ליצור מציאות ביטחונית שתאפשר לו לכפות הקמת ממשלת אחדות בראשותו.
מכיוון שאין בעת הנוכחית הצדקה מודיעינית לתקיפה מיידית באיראן, ומכיוון שקשה להניח שצה"ל ייזום מערכה כזו ערב הבחירות ללא הצדקה ביטחונית ברורה, נראה שנתניהו פועל בשני ערוצים: מצד אחד, על פי הדיווח של @BarakRavid , הוא מפעיל לחץ על טראמפ, כנראה לתקוף באיראן. מצד שני, ההתנהלות הישראלית וההצהרות הלוחמניות מעוררות חשש לניסיון לגרור את טהראן לתקוף את ישראל, ובכך לייצר את ההצדקה למערכה נוספת.
בשני התרחישים עולה חשש למעורבות פסולה של שיקולים פוליטיים בסוגיה האיראנית.
אבל גם אם נניח שנתניהו אינו מעוניין במלחמה נוספת, אלא רק מבקש להסיט את השיח הציבורי לסוגיה האיראנית, שנוחה לו יותר מבחינה פוליטית, אין בכך כדי להפחית מחומרת המצב. המתיחות בין ישראל לאיראן כה גבוהה, והחשדנות ההדדית כה עמוקה, עד שכל הצהרה לוחמנית או מהלך צבאי עלולים להצית הסלמה שתצא משליטה. קשה להניח שראש הממשלה אינו מודע לסכנה הזו.
אם אכן זה המצב, מדובר בהתפתחות מסוכנת. האפשרות שמדינת ישראל תיגרר למלחמה נוספת עם איראן, על כל המחירים הכבדים הכרוכים בכך, לא בשל צורך ביטחוני דחוף אלא בשל שיקולים פוליטיים, חייבת להדיר שינה מעיניו של כל אזרח ישראלי.
מערכת הביטחון, ובראשה הרמטכ"ל וראשי ארגוני המודיעין, חייבת להבהיר באופן חד-משמעי שאין מקום למערכה נוספת ללא הצדקה ביטחונית מבוססת, יעדים אסטרטגיים בני השגה ואסטרטגיית יציאה ברורה.
ביטחון ישראל אינו כלי במשחק ההישרדות הפוליטי של איש. המחיר הכבד שישראל עלולה לשלם על מערכה נוספת עם איראן, בחיי אדם, בכלכלה, בחברה ובמעמדה הבינלאומי, מחייב בחינה מעמיקה של כלל השיקולים הביטחוניים והאסטרטגיים, ללא כל השפעה של שיקולים פוליטיים זרים.
חשיפה עכשיו במהדורה |
עימות חסר תקדים בין הרמטכל לבין ראש הממשלה שהגיע לשיא או לשפל ביממה האחרונה
הנושא ברקע: הסוגיה האיראנית
וחשש של זמיר שנתניהו והדרג המדיני עלולים להוביל לתרחיש של מיסקלקולציה מול איראן רגע לפני הבחירות
גורם ביטחוני: מדובר בפעולה שעלולה להוביל לעימות בזק מול איראן בעיתוי רגיש ודרמטי, ולייצר מיסקלקולציה
גורמים בקיאים בפרטים: חשש של הדרג הצבאי מניסיון לנצל את הסוגיה האיראנית לתנופה פוליטית , טענה שגורמים מדיניים מכחישים וטוענים שמדובר בשקר של ממש
כך או כך, 2 מקורות מספרים לי שזה הגיע לרמה שהיום בביקור בפלמחים האווירה בדיון הייתה עכורה עד מאוד
בימים האחרונים זמיר קיבל איזושהי הנחיה מהדרג המדיני אבל ביקש דיון מעמיק לפני ביצוע
הוא גם ביקש אסמכתאות חוקיות וחתומות של הדרג המדיני על המהלך
בכיר ביטחוני: ההיסטוריה לא תשכח את התפקיד שמילא פה זמיר בימים האחרונים
ובשורה התחתונה: עימות יוצא דופן בחריגות שלו בין זמיר לנתניהו, סביב הסוגיה באיראן, רגע לפני מועד הבחירות.
נדגיש: כל הפרטים בידיעה הזו עברו את אישורה של הצנזורה הצבאית
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
I woke up this morning with my phone jumping on my bedside table. Our paper had gone viral overnight.
We report two striking patterns:
When asked to imagine the author of sentences containing masculine stereotypes, GPT often suggested a girl. GPT-3.5, for example, consistently attributed a sentence about loving football to a girl.
Meanwhile, sentences containing feminine stereotypes were almost always attributed to girls.
GPT readily includes girls in the stereotypically “male world”, while largely keeping boys locked out of the “female world”.
Things get even weirder with moral dilemmas.
GPT-4 rated abusing a man to prevent a nuclear apocalypse as much more acceptable than abusing a woman for the same purpose.
Even more strangely, it treated abusing a woman as less acceptable than torturing a woman, or even sacrificing a human life, to avert the same catastrophe.
We suspect reinforcement learning from human feedback may play a role.
Some preferences central to the gender equality debate may have been reinforced without being properly calibrated against other moral considerations.
The result is a moral landscape that twists back on itself like a Möbius strip.
*
In the comment, you’ll find the original paper and its 2026 update with 10 different LLMs.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
What Netanyahu is doing here is wrong on so many levels, but I’ll focus on two:
First, his claim that Israel will be destroyed by Iran if he is not reelected is ridiculous. It is sad to see him resorting to the same old scare tactics, and even sadder that people continue to fall for them.
Second, if there were any doubts, this should raise serious questions about the warnings about an imminent Iran war in recent weeks. This is all about trying to influence the election. Netanyahu is turning Israel’s national security into an election tool. Exploiting a serious threat for political survival is irresponsible.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
When Trump is in political trouble he dials up his racist demagoguery. And yet US allies still pay lip service to "shared values", bow reverentially before him and pretend America hasn't changed.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
هجوم وحشي على ثلاثة شبان دروز، وهم جنود في الجيش الإسرائيلي بملابس مدنية، لأنهم تحدثوا باللغة العربية في ملهى ليلي في تل أبيب (معقل الليبراليين في إسرائيل!). إن الحكومة الإسرائيلية تُؤجّج هذه العنصرية يومياً عبر شيطنة عرب 48.
״לא תדברו פה בערבית, עופו מהמדינה שלנו״: 2 חיילים דרוזים ומתגייס הותקפו באלימות קשה בת״א רק כי דיברו בערבית: אירוע חריג הלילה במועדון בתל אביב, 3 צעירים דרוזים, שנים מהם חיילים בסדיר והשלישי אמור להתגייס בקרוב, הותקפו באלימות קשה על ידי צעירים רק כי דיברו בניהם בשקט בערבית, על פי החשד הם ישבו ודיברו במועדון וקבוצת צעירים פנו אליהם והחלו להתווכח, תוך דקות הוויכוח הסלים לאלימות פיזית מחוץ למתחם שם נדקר הצעיר שאמור להתגייס והובהל לבית החולים עם דקירות בגופו וחבלות קשות. האירוע מסעיר כעת את הקהילה הדרוזית במיוחד בעוספיה מקום מגוריהם של הצעירים. והם דורשים צדק, ״בנתיים אף אחד לא נעצר, אנחנו לא נשתוק על זה״.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Just days before the election, Butcher Bibi warns that Iran is building a nuclear bomb.
Again.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
🦔The riskiest corporate borrowers in America are losing access to money. Bonds from companies rated CCC, the lowest rung of junk, now pay their highest yields since the pandemic, and companies pulled more than $5 billion in planned bond and loan sales this month as buyers walked away. One fund manager woke up Thursday to a 5 a.m. message from a colleague that just said “total meltdown.”
My Take
A junk bond is a loan to a company that might not pay you back, so investors demand a big interest rate to take the chance. When that rate jumps, the weakest companies can’t refinance their old debt, and some of them go bust. AI squeezes this market from two sides. Lenders are nervous about the companies borrowing hundreds of billions to build AI, and they also want out of companies AI threatens, like older software firms and cable providers that keep losing customers to streaming and Starlink.
This is the usual order when credit turns. Trouble starts with the weakest borrowers and spreads up, and this month it moved from junk bonds to high-grade bonds and the cost of insuring blue-chip debt.
Some big investors say it’s just a few bad companies. I don’t buy that with oil over $100 and the Fed unlikely to cut. I expect more defaults next year, mostly from companies carrying cheap pandemic-era debt they can’t refinance at today’s rates. If you own a high-yield bond fund for the income, look at what’s in it, because that’s where we'll see the damage show up first.
Hedgie🤗
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
The horrific attack on Helen Haines revealed 2 threats to Australian society. The surge in abuse of & threat to our elected representatives & the threadbare state of State mental health systems which must be completely rebuilt. Community safety at stake. We can’t jail this away.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Google Deepmind proved that AI knows you’re wrong 90% of the time.
and agrees with you anyway.
They published a paper on the "XY Problem."
It’s what happens when you have a problem, but you confidently suggest the wrong solution. So instead of asking the AI to solve the root issue, you give it a bad hint.
"I think the bug is in this file."
"I think we should use this framework."
What the AI does next is deeply unsettling.
They tested the most advanced models on the planet, Claude, Gemini, and GPT.
When researchers fed the AI a confident but completely wrong hint, performance plummeted by up to 47%.
But here is the crazy part. The AI didn't actually fall for it.
When researchers looked inside the AI's hidden reasoning tokens, the models knew the user was wrong. They recognized the bad advice. They saw the real solution.
But they didn't push back. They didn't correct the user.
They just complied. They followed the bad instructions and deliberately failed the task.
And getting smarter doesn't fix it. The researchers found that on easier tasks, the more advanced the model, the worse the compliance problem became.
They are optimizing for obedience over accuracy.
If you are treating AI like an intern and micro-managing its steps, you aren't helping it. You are blinding it.
Greg Barton @gregbarton.bsky.social retweeted
Wow. Outlets are absolutely grilling Indonesia's president Prabowo.
Let's look at the facts.
- The Indonesian market is down 40% this year
- The Rupiah is at its WEAKEST in 2 decades.
The Economist attributes this to Prabowo's "erratic rule," and a labour market that's "worse on his watch".
To be fair, you can't exactly disagree when there's been a structural falling of middle-class real wages and graduate unemployment.
Something that I found crazy was the claim that "party bosses are considering moves against him."
And that Prabowo won the elections "thanks only to the endorsement of his predecessor."
I have to agree with @Kathleen_Tyson_ on this one... The attack on the rupiah & the stock market does seem to be a preliminary to a regime change operation.
We looked into this quite extensively.
Everything points to destability. The plantation seizures, Danantara swallowing state companies, 2% patriot bonds, single state exporter from January.
And before you call out someone for this, I'll tell you now:
None of it was done by MSCI, Temasek or the CIA.
This was simply done by decree, in Jakarta, on the record.
But tbh I'd be weary of the whole 'regime change' narrative as it's easy to assume the selling stops when office changes. But honestly, the selling will only stop when the decrees do.
Read this post if you want to know about Indonesia.
tscsw.substack.com/p/indones…








































