Russia’s Arctic oil route is up nearly 50% this year. About 20 million barrels have gone to Asia through Arctic waters since July, Reuters reports. Last season’s total was 13 million. Traders expect another 5 to 10 million barrels before the ice closes the route. The Northern Sea Route is riskier and needs icebreakers. It used to be the expensive option. The war flipped the maths. Suez, Hormuz and the Black Sea are all disrupted, and tanker rates are at records. Arctic transit fees now cost less than the Red Sea route to Asia. Putin wants Arctic cargo to double to 70 million tonnes a year by 2030. Every chokepoint that closes makes the ice route look cheaper.