Historian @hebrewu. @TheWilsonCenter fellow, 2022- 23. _Oil Wars_ coming out with @yalebooks this October. More here: https://xitter.cf/t.co/MbRvR9FIad
Israel.
Joined April 2015
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Guy Laron retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The price of natural gas in the US 🇺🇸 and Europe 🇪🇺. Now, imagine running a gas-intensive company (say, a fertilizer plant) in either region. Europe >$30; US <$3
Guy Laron retweeted
My new book - out today in Britain. All good bookstores etc…Also out in translation in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands this week
Guy Laron retweeted
BREAKING: UK government approves the Jackdaw natural gas field in the North Sea — the project, which is effectively built already, was previously quashed over its climate impact.
Next test for London is the approval of the Rosebank oilfield project.
Guy Laron retweeted
Russia’s Arctic oil route is up nearly 50% this year.
About 20 million barrels have gone to Asia through Arctic waters since July, Reuters reports. Last season’s total was 13 million.
Traders expect another 5 to 10 million barrels before the ice closes the route.
The Northern Sea Route is riskier and needs icebreakers. It used to be the expensive option.
The war flipped the maths. Suez, Hormuz and the Black Sea are all disrupted, and tanker rates are at records. Arctic transit fees now cost less than the Red Sea route to Asia.
Putin wants Arctic cargo to double to 70 million tonnes a year by 2030.
Every chokepoint that closes makes the ice route look cheaper.
Guy Laron retweeted
FT: "China’s growing debt pile is constraining the government’s fiscal capacity for sweeping new stimulus to revive flagging domestic demand and strengthen economic growth, studies of state finances show."
Although you probably wouldn't know this from reading the Chinese or foreign press, China probably has the worst debt dynamics of any major economy today. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is the second highest (after Japan) and is the fastest growing in history.
ft.com/content/a0ffc43a-231a… via @ft
Guy Laron retweeted
Was Yahya Sinwar, before October '23, behaving like Anwar Sadat before October '73? During the weekend, a new story by @ronenbergman @ynet added more details about the Hamas deception plan. And it helps explain how Sinwar prepared both diplomatic and military options and why
Guy Laron retweeted
Fascinating thread detailing Israel-Hamas back channel negotiations prior to Oct 7. Confirms that proximate cause was Saudi normalization, but wasn’t the only enabling factor.
Was Yahya Sinwar, before October '23, behaving like Anwar Sadat before October '73? During the weekend, a new story by @ronenbergman @ynet added more details about the Hamas deception plan. And it helps explain how Sinwar prepared both diplomatic and military options and why
Guy Laron retweeted
🚢💰The Arctic is the newest shipping lane to profit from the war.
Northern Sea Route voyages hit 133 in September, more than 4 times 2022 levels and up 46% from August.
Nearly half were 🇷🇺Russian-flagged.
🇨🇳Chinese ships are a growing share.
Bulk carriers set a record at 29, against 12 a year earlier.
Chinese container ship Dubai Tower sailed Qingdao to Felixstowe in 24 days, against 40+ via Suez or the Cape.
Shipping is escaping one chokepoint run by someone else for another.
Every Arctic transit needs Russian permits, Rosatom icebreakers and Russian rules.
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb in danger and Moscow is selling the way around them.
Guy Laron retweeted
From a 100k-word manuscript to a 65k-word finished book. BRINK is out on Tuesday, October 6.
Preorder: penguinrandomhouse.com/books…
Guy Laron retweeted
אז מה @netanyahu עשה לכלכלה ולחברה שלנו ב17 שנות שלטון כמעט רצופות??
בואו תראו מה קרה למחירי הדיור, חוזק המשכורות שלנו, מחירי דלק, יוקר הקניות והמע״מ. וזו רק טעימה…
נתניהו רע לכלכלה ולחברה שלנו. זה עלינו. להחליף. לתקן. לתפארת מדינת ישראל💪🏾🇮🇱🕊️
Guy Laron retweeted
A particularly rough day for the Abraham Accords ended with the first ever civilian flight from Saudi Arabia to Israel
Guy Laron retweeted
All the Sinophiles will tell you that Chinese companies are taking over the world as a sign of their competitiveness. But they neglect to mention, they are doing so increasingly at a loss that has to be covered by the state. h/t @thedailyshot
Guy Laron retweeted
Russia now supplies China with four times as much oil as Saudi Arabia does. Source: buff.ly/phnMo2B
Guy Laron retweeted
In 1972, nearly 8 times as many children were born in China as in the U.S. In 2025, only 2.2 times as many. Consider also that China’s total fertility rate in 2025 was 0.93, while the U.S. rate was 1.58.
If fertility rates remain at those levels, the U.S. will overtake China in births at some point in the 2060s (depending on immigration flows to the U.S.) and in total population by around 2100. A world where the U.S. has a larger population than China is very different from the world today.
Of course, this is a big “if,” but it is a nice thought experiment to illustrate the importance of demographics in shaping Great Power competition. Among the great powers, the U.S. is the least demographically exposed.
Guy Laron retweeted
📽️ What happens when the world's biggest exporter of one of the most important substances for modern civilisation decides to stop exporting it?
We might be about to find out.
🛢️Primer on US diesel and the coming fuel crunch, inc why it could be especially grisly for Britain👇
Guy Laron retweeted
Copper Climbs Toward Record High on Signs of Near-Term Tightness
Copper extended gains — climbing back toward a record high set earlier this month — as stock markets rallied and there were signs of tightening supply conditions in China.
In China, multiple copper refineries are due to undergo periods of planned maintenance between October and November, according to Shanghai Metals Markets, limiting a big increase in metal availability. There’s still uncertainty over the pace of imported supplies in China due to port congestion in Shanghai, according to SMM. (Bloomberg)
Guy Laron retweeted
"The Middle East is in fact the most unequal region in the world, with both enormous inequality between countries and large inequality within countries."
By Thomas Piketty, Facundo Alvaredo, & Lydia Assouad
theforum.erf.org.eg/2018/08/…
Guy Laron retweeted
🇨🇭🇨🇳 Glencore Just Signed A 10 Year LNG Deal With China.
Glencore has signed a long-term LNG sale and purchase agreement with S&T International Natural Gas Trading, a subsidiary of China Suntien Green Energy.
Under the deal, Glencore will supply LNG for 10 years, sourced from its global portfolio, strengthening its position in China's LNG market and supporting supply security and the lower-emission transition in Hebei province.
It lands the same week Venture Global LNG and China Gas Holdings signed their own 20-year agreement, adding 0.5 million tonnes a year from 2030 and bringing their total long-term offtake to 2.5 MTPA.
Two different sellers, one buyer story.
China keeps locking in long-term LNG, from both a trading house's global portfolio and a US exporter, even as trade tension continue.
