iFred retweeted
oil's crack spread -> compute's crunch spread.
oil refiners buy crude and sell gasoline, while inference providers buy GPU-hours and sell tokens.
the margin isn't just $/GPU-hour or $/million tokens, but the spread between the value of tokens produced and the cost of the compute to produce them.
unlike oil, the conversion ratio isn't fixed for compute. batching, utilization, model architecture, quantization, and custom kernels all change what you can extract from a GPU.
inference optimization is more than a cost advantage - it's a way to expand the spread without changing the underlying commodity.
A reminder that his team is working on legislation that would treat AI like a military weapon and your small horde of 3090s like illegal military surplus.
This is insane. We cannot allow AI agents to go into your bank account and act independently without your authorization. But that is what’s happening right now.
Left unchecked, AI could endanger the entire global financial system — including your bank account.
Pause AI NOW!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Per Axios, detected AI agents access bank accounts with the customer’s permission. This violates most banks’ terms requiring human logins, which is why banks call it “unauthorized.”
Source: Axios (Oct. 22, 2026) — axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-…
iFred retweeted
So it begins, EasyJet 43KU (Airbus A320) currently inbound Glasgow with a minimum of eight passengers vomiting in the cabin.
iFred retweeted
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
This is a thing even before the AI boom. Hardware makes it to a landing point as the shell is near completion. I’ve seen network gear show up before the foundation was cured.
I talked to a friendly, from a major hyper scaler, on the GPU order to install lead time (per people freaking out some are ordered and not installed) and the lead time is and always has been a range of one to two quarters. Given data center timing (they call this staged integration) the supply chain is notoriously difficult to manage across compute, cooling, power, etc.
Any concern of GPUs waiting to be energized is a nothing burger and is totally detached from the reality of supply chain management, especially that of semis.
We remain early in the adoption cycle for AI, we need a lot more compute, and the demand profile only increases to rise.
Hope that helps :)
iFred retweeted
"All right, Hans, time to go. But he ate my last meal."
"If that's the worst thing that happens to you today, consider yourself lucky."
"Are you really allowed to execute people at a local jail?!"
iFred retweeted
If you’re a memory investor and scared of this selloff, save this!
Goldman obliterates the bear case on $MU $SNDK $SKHY dropping could imply that the market may have underestimate the capacity ramp up. DRAM spot pricing which typically acts as an indicator is going up🔥
If you’re a memory investor you’ve got to read this from Cantor today!
$MU has 16 SCAs, including 14 with pricing metrics sees potential for these LTAs to cover 50% of revenue versus 25% in the May Q and 35% in the August quarter signed additional agreements at higher prices🔥🫨
iFred retweeted
🚨🚨 NVHBM will ultimately increase downward pressure on HBM prices.
I find it remarkable how little skepticism, anger, or concern there has been over the NVHBM name and reports that its base dies will be standardized on TSMC’s 3nm process.
NVIDIA is now putting its name on HBM and trying to dictate even the design and manufacturing choices inside it to suit its own platform. To me, its arrogance has reached a new extreme.
Of course, NVIDIA cannot be happy about price increases when it depends on memory suppliers. How irritating it must have been to see a company from some supposedly insignificant little country, making “mere memory chips,” suddenly start flexing its pricing power.
So why did they create NVHBM, and why are they trying to standardize the base die on TSMC’s 3nm process?
This will work out without any consequences what so ever.
Hey @SoundTransit, have you considered the @Metra process?
iFred retweeted
[단독] 삼성전자, ‘차세대 HBM’ TSMC와 함께 만든다
Samsung, $TSM, $NVDA
엔비디아 ‘NVHBM’ 공동 개발·생산
HBM의 핵심 구성품 ‘베이스 다이’
삼성 파운드리 대신 TSMC 3나노 적용
삼성, HBM 제조 ‘턴키’ 경쟁력에도
빅테크의 까다로운 요구에 한발 물러서
삼성전자(005930)가 엔비디아의 차세대 맞춤형 고대역폭메모리(HBM)를 개발하면서 핵심 구성품인 ‘베이스다이’를 세계 최대 파운드리(반도체 위탁 생산) 업체인 TSMC 공정을 활용하기로 했다. 그간 HBM 공급 시 메모리칩 역할인 코어다이와 시스템반도체 역할인 베이스다이를 모두 자체 생산해온 삼성전자가 엔비디아의 기술적 요구 사항을 수용해 ‘턴키(일괄공급)’ 기반의 HBM 제조 방식을 바꾸기로 한 것이다.
18일 업계에 따르면 엔비디아는 올 8월 공개한 커스텀 HBM인 ‘NVHBM’ 생산을 맡긴 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스(000660)·마이크론에 베이스다이를 TSMC의 3㎚(나노미터·10억분의 1m) 공정으로 만들어줄 것을 요구했다. 코어다이 역시 6세대 D램 공정(1c)으로 통일을 요청했다. NVHBM은 차세대 HBM인 HBM4E(7세대) 구조를 기반으로 한다.
엔비디아의 이 같은 요구는 HBM 공급 업체마다 제조 방식이 다르면 설계한 제품 성능을 일관되게 구현하기 어렵기 때문이다. 업체마다 제품 검증을 별도로 해야 하는 부담도 줄일 수 있다. 파운드리 사업을 거느린 삼성전자 DS 부문은 내부 검토 끝에 엔비디아 요구를 수용하기로 했다.
삼성전자는 HBM을 그래픽처리장치(GPU)와 연결하는 과정에서 4년 전 TSMC의 패키징 공정과 호환을 위해 협력한 적은 있지만 HBM 제조 단계부터 손을 잡는 것은 이번이 처음이다.
삼성은 다만 HBM 턴키 전략은 표준 HBM 제품에서 그대로 유지한다. 삼성전자는 올 초 세계 최초로 양산한 6세대 HBM4와 양산 검증 중인 7세대 HBM4E의 베이스다이에 삼성 파운드리의 4나노 공정을 적용하고 있다. 두 제품의 코어다이 역시 삼성전자 화성·평택캠퍼스의 1c 라인에서 만들고 있다.
삼성전자는 AMD 등 다른 고객사의 커스텀 HBM에서도 턴키 방식을 고수할 방침이다. 아울러 NVHBM 개발·생산에도 자체 파운드리 활용 가능성을 남겨뒀다. 업계 관계자는 “삼성은 NVHBM용 베이스다이를 자사 파운드리에서도 만들 수 있는지 검증하고 있다”며 “NVHBM 수요가 TSMC 생산능력을 넘어설 경우를 대비한 것”이라고 전했다.
iFred retweeted
The usefulness of Amazon’s 6-page memo has been nuked by AI-generated text (employees sit in meetings suspecting text is AI and tune out).
Suspicious memos tagged as AI;DR (AI, didn’t read).
iFred retweeted
Some of you may remember the old "Meteostar" forecast tables. I think its no way to do real analysis, but it can be a nice summary graphic. So I made something similar for SatelliteWx. These are in the meteogram tab->Hourly Table->Rows (classic).
This is was only two cards.
$500,000 worth of ZOTAC RTX 5090 shipments reportedly "go missing" at Brazil's São Paulo airport. 🔗 wccf.tech/1lebo
Someone responding to the lack of F500 uptake with “enterprises are lethargic and behind the times” is pure cope.
“This is why we don’t hire people with children or anyone over 30.”
- a recruiter bragging to me about how their team stays locked in
i have no horse in the race here - but to everyone trashing the 8am-8pm requirement, availability weekends and nights, and 3 year commitment...
this is the tacit/unsaid requirement of every job I have ever had that had real growth, learning, and ownership baked into it. the only difference is VK is being explicit about it in the JD
All points I agree with, but to add:
- the added capacity from the big three isn't NAND or consumer DDR, its HBM and high density DDR packages
- timelines for new fabs dont have production scale impacts until well beyond 2030. Probably looking at '32-35 if the demand curve keeps
- any consumer savior will either be through new entrants (Intel+SK is one example) or through new tech that pushes density (zram, 1t2c, exoctic materials)
- china isnt going to save you, look at where advanced ymtc nand and advanced cxmt dram is ending up
- Starting with nvidia, and soon others, it will make more economical sense to outright abandon a customer line to accommodate AI infra; see the aib distress, g202 allocation, and emergence of the RTX 5500
- any fall in training demand is being eaten up by inference, and inference demand is proving to be durable; so any AI infra companies succumbing to a bubble will not cause prices to crash
Thoughts on Memory
1. I do not agree with the idea of a memory supply glut in 2029. I expect demand growth to accelerate further.
2. Around 2029 to 2030, the memory business will undergo a fundamental transformation. Think of how we no longer view NVIDIA as simply a gaming GPU company.
3. China will remain a competitive threat, but equipment constraints will make capacity expansion harder than many expect. Its impact on the supply and demand balance in 2029 will also be smaller than the market fears.
4. I expect memory stocks to begin rerating within the next six months. This also ties into a broader rerating of the KOSPI.
5. I believe memory needs to rerate first for other AI themes to follow. That view has not changed.
Source: me