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Thank you @canadiantransit for the invite. Very much enjoyed the panel. And I do hope that transit operators learn how to monetize some of the $1.8B in consumer surplus created annually
Mario Iacobacci (@iacob007), Alain Mercier, and Sarah Ross deliver speeches on public transit funding and financing. Each speaker gave valuable insights on how to better fund public transit as it adapts to the changing environment around it. #transitfunding #CUTAPolicyForum
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
What is the significance of Serbian election? I have been asked this by a lot of folks, so here is an unusually long post from me.
The significance is...
1. ...That this happened before…
2. ...That you have no idea that it happened before…
3. ...And that the West messed it up the first time too.
I am not an expert on Serbian politics. If you want to follow an actual legitimate expert, please follow Professor Dusan Pavlovic (@d_pavlovic) for proper analysis or my elementary school buddy Dimitrije Vojnov (@timjohnbyford) if you want the more anarcho-Hollywood commentary.
Nonetheless, I was born in Belgrade, I left at 13 years old, and am a geopolitical/investment strategist by trade (basketball coach at heart). As such, lots of folks are asking me what is going on in Serbia and what I think about it.
Well, here is what is going on… Serbia has yet again illustrated that it has the capacity for non-violent regime change. Incumbent leader Aleksandar Vucic conceded in a short and relatively sweet manner and the collective will of student protesters won. Pretty extraordinary outcome in today's jaded world.
If this sounds vaguely familiar to you, it is because it also happened exactly 26 years ago, back in October 2000. Then, student protest movement OTPOR – in part led by dear friend @SrdjaPopovic – managed to do the unthinkable: use non-violent protest to topple the Slobodan Milosevic regime. The degree of difficulty then was higher than today. Say what you will about Vucic, but his government was not autocratic or engaged in military adventurism.
But I don’t really want to talk about what happened in Serbia. I want to talk about how the West reacted to the extraordinary defeat of Milosevic in 2000 by a group of pro-West students.
Instead of embracing the new government, it sought to force it into compliance with a deluge of conditionality. Sure, the incoming Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica was not aligned with Western liberal values, but this is Serbia 26 years ago! Did Belgrade get a pass after it just toppled, peacefully, the so-called "Butcher of Balkans?" No. It got criticized for everything from LGBTQ+ policy to foreign policy towards Moscow. As if the country was supposed to transition from Serbia to Vermont overnight! It was all sticks all the time, very few carrots for the war-weary country.
The West then wrestled ~12% of Serbia’s territory – today’s Kosovo – without any real sweeteners and called the Belgrade government obstructionist for opposing it. I don’t want to get into debates of legality or normative justification for Kosovo independence. I think we can all simply agree that giving up ~12% of one’s territory is not an act most countries accept without some sort of constrenation. The US and the EU did not care. They gave Belgrade a fait accompli in a magnificent display of hegemonic arrogance. But hey, it was 2008... different world.
Underpinning this attitude has long been a general sense of antagonism by the liberal West towards conservative Serbia. In the mind of many foreign policy elites - a generation of elite "experts" for whom the first taste of geopolitics came from the wars in Yugoslavia - Serbia and Serbs are and always will be the "bad guys." Belgrade, effectively, has had to pay the price for the 1990s, even once the regime that underwrote that aggressive policy of that terrible decade was peacefully and extraordinarily toppled in 2000. The incredible enthusiasm and pro-West sentiment of that youth - the youth that stared Milosevic regime right in the face with no fear - was ignored and wasted. Many of that youth is no longer pro-EU or pro-West. It is jaded, nihilist, and very bitter.
I can see the same outcome on the horizon for Serbia today. The West is going to expect instant compliance, but 60% of Serbs do not want an antagonistic relationship with Russia. As such, expecting these students today to just throw away the country's relationship with Moscow is naive. Public support for accession to the EU is as low as 32%, according to some surveys, as high as a pathetic 45% in others. That is extremely low for a country that would objectively benefit from EU membership. The West’s brand has lost its luster.
If the West wants Serbia to actually change its geopolitical direction, it’s going to have to pay for that shift. No, Serbia will again not become Vermont overnight. It won’t be a bastion of liberal thought or values. So what? Judging by election results in the West, doesn’t seem like this should be a problem, now should it? The West appears to have approximated Serbia over the past quarter century. So, all should be good, no?
Serbia is also not going to give up its relationship with the Global South. Not unless Europeans and Americans pay for the shift. This is a multipolar world folks. If Belgrade stood by its geopolitical independence at the very height of American hegemony, the price for its compliance just went up, not down. You had your chance to "buy" Serbia cheap in 2000. If the students protesting in the streets of Belgrade listened to their game theory lessons, they should play hard-to-get this time around.
What the reaction in the West should be – and should have been in 2000 – is to celebrate the example that Serbian students just set. French students should, especially, get to studying the example set by the Serbs. As should young people in the Global South, India and elsewhere. This kind of change takes hard work, concentration, and an iron will commitment to non-violence. Now two generations of Serbian students – the generation from the 1990s and now this one 25 years later – have shown the world how to do peaceful change.
The question is not whether Serbs learned any lessons, but whether the West did. If the West actually cares which way Serbia leans – and it is not clear to me that it actually does – then it is going to have to stop trying to fight its own domestic ideological battles inside Serbian society. You want Belgrade to join the West? Then stop lecturing and start paying.
Good ranking .. other than the mishap around the ordering of the first two universities #CambridgeU
Ranked: The 100 Best Universities Outside the U.S. for 2027 🎓
visualcapitalist.com/best-un…
Message pour notre nouveau @PaulPlamondon notre nouveau premier ministre
Indeed. Big speeches and empty words
Meloni's strong condemnation of the US diesel deal with Russia would carry more weight if Italian exporters weren't falling over themselves transshipping goods to Russia. Europe is all about big speeches and virtue signaling. It's all just empty words...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Five years ago, an important miscarriage of justice occurred.
The story began in April 2018 when David Sabatini, an MIT, Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI), and Whitehead Institute scientist and professor began a consensual intimate relationship with Dr. Kristin Knouse, a principal investigator with her own lab at the Whitehead.
By January 2020, David sought to end the relationship, but Knouse apparently did not want it to end. When David thereafter started a new relationship and Knouse learned about it, she began a secretive campaign to destroy him by attempting to end his career as a scientist. She did so by damaging his name, reputation, and that of his family with false sexual harassment and other claims, thereby making him unemployable.
Knouse conspired with Dr. Ruth Lehmann, the then- and still current Director (i.e., President) of the Whitehead Institute, in her efforts to destroy Sabatini.
The record presented in court demonstrated that Dr. Lehmann committed to Knouse in October of 2020 that she would fire David. Dr. Lehmann made this commitment to Knouse before any investigation of the facts had taken place.
Seven months after committing to fire him, in March of 2021, Dr. Lehmann, on behalf of the Whitehead, hired the law firm of Hinckley, Allen, Snyder (HAS) to undergo an investigation of David. By July 2021, HAS shared a draft of its conclusions with MIT, HHMI, and the Whitehead, but not with David or his lawyers.
On the morning of August 19, 2021, David for the first time received the more than 200-page investigative report and a calendar invite for a meeting the following day with Dr. Lehmann, the president of HHMI, and the HR directors of both institutions. The report was riddled with errors and unsupported claims about David and his relationship with Knouse.
When David's lawyer immediately thereafter reached out to Whitehead counsel to ask whether David was about to be fired, they confirmed that he would be terminated at the meeting.
On the advice of his lawyer, David immediately resigned from HHMI and the Whitehead rather than attend the meeting. HHMI did not accept his resignation, choosing instead to fire him. MIT put David on leave and ultimately revoked his tenure. David thereafter resigned from MIT.
On August 20, 2021, one day after sending David the HAS report and before David had the opportunity to dispute the facts and the conclusions of the investigation, Dr. Lehmann emailed all employees at the Whitehead informing them that David had violated a number of Whitehead policies "including policies concerning sexual harassment."
The Lehmann public email, David's resignation and firing, and Dr. Lehmann's claims about David's sexual harassment exploded into a major global scandal covered in mainstream, social, and scientific media around the world as it had all of the requisite ingredients:
An attractive target with David, one of the most important scientists of his generation in line for the Nobel Prize, a purported inappropriate sexual relationship with a younger female colleague, and a political and institutional environment where punishing a man for sexual harassment advanced the career and reputation of the person and/or institution that destroyed the career and reputation of the accused, regardless of the validity of the allegations.
As a result of Knouse's claims, Lehmann's sham investigation, and the media onslaught that followed, David lost all sources of income and his reputation was destroyed. All prizes he had been previously been awarded were withdrawn. He was removed from all scientific advisory and other honorary roles other than as a member of our family foundation's (the Pershing Square Foundation's) scientific advisory board.
When I initially learned of the news about David in the summer of 2021, I hired him as a consultant to the Pershing Square Foundation as I believed our small foundation team would benefit greatly by his insights (and he now had the time to help us), and he needed the money to support his family.
At my request and under a confidentiality agreement, David provided us with many hundreds of pages of documents including texts and other communications with Knouse, the investigative report, and David's responses to the allegations so that we could do our own evaluation of Knouse's claims.
I and a member of our family office's legal team carefully reviewed the documents. After a careful review of the empirical documents -- in particular the texts between Knouse and David -- it became abundantly clear that Knouse's actions were that of an angry and jilted lover, not those of a sexually harassed junior colleague. And the investigative report appeared designed to deliver a pre-ordained conclusion rather than a dispassionate fact-based analysis.
The impact of the firings and the destruction of his career and reputation on David and his family was extraordinarily devastating, so much so that we became increasingly concerned that he might commit suicide.
[In order to make sure that David's important scientific research would continue, in February 2023, in partnership with an anonymous donor, we funded $25 million to support David launching a new lab. As you might expect, I was reviled in the press, in scientific journals, and on social media for doing so and for supporting a so-called sex offender.]
On October 20, 2021, David filed suit against Knouse alleging defamation and tortious interference in his career and his contractual arrangements. Thereafter, Knouse brought counterclaims against David.
Today, nearly five years to the date of the filing of the suit, he has finally received justice.
Today, a 13-person jury (seven men and six women) of David Sabatini's peers (12 jurors plus an alternate) unanimously determined that David proved that Kristin Knouse defamed him, tortiously interfered with his contractual relationships (his entire career as a scientist), and tortiously interfered with his prospective advantageous relationships (his future employment). The jury awarded him nearly $10 million in damages including interest.
The jury rejected all of Knouse's claims including her claims that David engaged in quid pro quo sexual harassment and created a sexually hostile work environment.
While five years is a very long time to live under a reputational cloud, justice was finally served today for David, but not completely in my view.
To this day, Dr. Ruth Lehmann remains Director of the Whitehead Institute. Dr. Lehmann worked alongside Dr. Knouse to destroy David Sabatini, an acclaimed scientist and professor. She did not follow due process before she intentionally destroyed David's career and reputation.
Dr. Lehmann nearly killed David with her actions, as had we not rescued David by finding him employment, supporting him publicly to buffer the reputational damage, and supporting his recovery, he could have ended his life and left his son without a father before the world understood what had transpired here.
And the reputational damage was not just to David.
David's brother, Bernardo Sabatini, is one of the most important neuroscientists in the world. To this day, he has had to deal with a large cloud over his family name and reputation. Recently, when the new CEO of our brain institute mentioned that Bernardo Sabatini was on our board, he was asked: "Wasn't he involved in some kind of sex scandal?"
For obvious reasons, the character of the person who runs a scientific institute is of utmost importance. Among other failures here, Dr. Ruth Lehmann committed to Knouse that she would fire David many months before an investigation was even launched and without consideration of the empirical facts.
How can one trust research produced by a scientific institute if its leader is not committed to observing the empirical facts before reaching conclusions that have life-threatening import? We have unfortunately seen massive amounts of scientific fraud which has harmed innumerable human lives and wasted billions of dollars of research funding and time.
For her ethical breaches here, Dr. Lehmann should be fired from the Whitehead. Based on her actions in this case, she is in no position to serve as the leader of an important scientific institute.
I speak with some perspective on how scientific and other institutions should be led. Including the recent launch of the Ackman Oxman Institute, we have funded approximately $1 billion of scientific research and institutions over the last decade or so, and this experience has given us the opportunity to meet the leadership of many of the most important scientific institutions in the world.
To put it plainly, we would not give a dollar to a scientific institute whose leader compromised basic moral principles as has happened here.
At an absolute minimum, the board of the Whitehead should immediately launch a detailed and independent investigation of Dr. Lehmann's actions in the Sabatini case. I would encourage the investigation, among other considerations, to carefully exam all of the correspondence between Lehmann and Knouse, as well their correspondence with the HAS law firm on among other areas, the various drafts of the Sabatini investigative report.
Alternatively, Dr. Lehmann could resign, minimize further distraction for the Whitehead, and save institutional time and resources that would be better spent on research that benefits humanity.
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
California's failure to build high-speed rail is maybe the most egregious example of America's inability to deliver modern infrastructure.
Perhaps it could learn from another Western country with one of the world's largest and cheapest high-speed train networks: Spain.
I explained:
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Denmark is raising its retirement age to 70. French election candidates pledge to reducing it to 60 or 62.
Denmark's debt to GDP ratio is 27%; France's is 117%.
You reap what you sow.
cnn.com/2025/05/23/business/…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: Elon Musk came to Donald Trump with the plan to throttle Ukraine’s use of SpaceX’s Starshield satellite internet network, sources have told the Telegraph.
The tech billionaire made the proposal during the US President’s row with Volodymyr Zelensky over strikes on Russian oil refineries.
‘The reality is that they were both in it,’ a senior source said of Musk’s and Trump’s involvement.
But after a night of carnage in Kyiv caused by the slowdown, Musk was alarmed about the possibility of adverse consumer reaction in Europe.
The SpaceX boss then proceeded to tweet, blaming the US administration, and ultimately, President Trump for authorising the slowdown.
‘He tweeted out that he was innocent and that it was the US administration that did it,’ the source said.
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Great piece by Yasheng Huang: “Beijing believes, with rising vigor of conviction, that the power of the state in building infrastructure, scaling technology, and developing cities created China’s miracle. I believe that this view gets China wrong, and it has led to many of the ills of the Chinese economy, such as its macro imbalances, overcapacity, slowing personal income growth relative to GDP growth, poor productivity performance, and a gaping hole in the human capital of rural China.”
A true of story of how China took off--now almost completely forgotten and ignored yashenghuang.substack.com/p/…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Last night brought another monster trade surplus for China in September. To think that China will step back from its export-led growth model is hopelessly naive. It won't. The rest of China's economy is deeply broken. This is the only growth it has...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
The reason Iran is attacking lots of ships is because we're in the end-game. Exports from all kinds of places to Iran have collapsed to zero. The regime is fighting for its survival and it's trying to spike oil prices as much as possible. It won't work...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Excellent @nytimes article on the economic meltdown in Iran. The regime isn’t paying nurses and teachers who are quitting to survive. Pensioners are no longer getting their pensions. The blockade and US sanctions are exacting a heavy toll…
nytimes.com/2026/10/04/world… via @NYTimes
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
"in order for all data center owners to break even on their AI investment... their annual revenue would amount to roughly 9.2% of projected 2032 GDP"
I wanted to make time to write about @SVNieuwerburgh 's excellent paper in our Brookings panel but @HannoLustig beat me to it. Do read the full post (or Stijn's paper!). thetwocents.substack.com/p/n…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
More than 700,000 YouTube views in less than 72 hours for my dialogue with former Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull youtube.com/watch?v=LmVSu_d9…
Mario Iacobacci (he/him) retweeted
Iran is now in a full-blown, all-out currency crisis. The Iranian Rial falls around 30% on average in past years. This year - since the reimposition of the blockade on July 14 - it's falling at an annualized rate of 125%. Iran is running out of time...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…






























