Joe Main retweeted
SILVER HAS CRASHED 60%. BUT HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE?
At the end of 2025, I wrote an article explaining why I believed gold and silver were heading into its final run before a deep correction. couriermail.com.au/business/…
How did I come to that conclusion?
By studying the chart's personality. History doesn't always repeat, but it often gives us clues.
Look at the chart below.
Historically, silver has shown seasonal weakness from around February-April through to October/November. Now, everyone's calling this the worst silver crash in history. But here's what's interesting. During the previous major Wave 4 correction in 2008, silver fell around 60% between March and November.
Fast forward to 2026.
Silver peaked around February and has now corrected approximately 59% into November. Almost the exact same correction. Almost the exact same seasonal window. But what fascinates me most isn't the price. It's the psychology.
For years, I'd been posting bullish analysis on gold and silver. Then, at the end of January, I warned that we were approaching the top of the wave and a major correction was coming.
The abuse was incredible.
"Don't you understand the fundamentals?"
Mate, the fundamentals you're explaining are the exact fundamentals Tung and I were discussing on YouTube back in early 2024! youtu.be/d1BDXiKPk7U
They're not new. That's WHY we were buying silver in the $20s, long before it went on to rally around 6x. You're buying a story today that we understood years ago. And now look what's happened. Sentiment has completely flipped the other way. The same people who couldn't imagine silver falling are now convinced it's all over.
This is how market cycles work. Accumulation, public participation, excess, correction - wipe out the excess. Then the cycle starts again.
And right now, there's a LOT of confluence suggesting another major market low could be approaching.
Look at what's lining up.
Gold-to-Dow ratio is back at key support.
Gold-to-silver ratio is back at key resistance and very overbought, with the potential to turn lower.
Commodities are deeply oversold and approaching important technical levels.
Seasonality is lining up with previous major lows.
Market sentiment has swung heavily towards fear and bearishness.
When you have this many independent pieces of evidence pointing towards the same outcome, you pay attention. Does that mean the bottom is definitely in? Of course not. But it tells me the probabilities of a major reversal are increasing. As I told everyone last night, I'm NOT blindly buying. I'm watching closely for the technical evidence of a major reversal. The price has entered an area that interests me. Now I need the market to confirm it.
The eagle has spotted its prey. Now it's time to zoom in, wait for the right moment, and strike.
Patience. Preparation. Execution.
I'm experiencing the exact same sentiment for $SILVER by many people at the moment.
You know the top isn't in when the herd are telling you it's over.
IT'S OVER FOR GOLD AND SILVER!
That's what you're hearing all over social media right now.
There's a LOT of analysis floating around the precious metals space right now, and I get it. It's hard to know who to listen to.
The reality is, nobody knows for certain what markets will do next.
But if you're going to listen to someone, CHECK THEIR TRACK RECORD.
Ask yourself three questions:
1. Did they identify the precious metals bull market BEFORE it happened?
2. Did they keep you in the trade throughout the massive rally, rather than getting shaken out along the way?
3. Did they identify the top of the wave and tell you when it was time to lock in profits?
If they haven't demonstrated those three things, what makes you think they're suddenly going to get the next move right?
If you're confused about what's happening in precious metals right now, go back and watch this YouTube video I posted a year ago.
The chart I've attached is an actual screenshot from that video. Not something I've drawn up after the fact.
Why am I sharing it? Because I did all three of those things above.
What's fascinating is that the market is playing out almost exactly as I explained it would A YEAR AGO.
This is textbook market behaviour.
The sky isn't falling. The market isn't doing anything it shouldn't be doing. We're seeing the kind of correction I warned about well in advance.
And if you're down on precious metals right now, chances are it's because you bought during the EXCESS phase of the market cycle.
Anyone who's been around markets long enough knows what happens next. Those excess phases eventually get wiped out as prices return to healthier levels.
The good news? If the longer-term bull market remains intact, there's every chance those prices will recover in due time.
But this is exactly why understanding market cycles is so important.
It's not just about knowing WHAT to buy. It's about knowing WHEN to buy, WHEN to hold and WHEN to take profits.
Markets zig and zag. They always have, and they always will.
The problem is that too many people love the zig but can't emotionally handle the zag.
And that's why I always say:
IF YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE ZAG, YOU DON'T DESERVE THE ZIG.
Toughen up. Stop reacting emotionally to every red candle and start understanding how markets actually move.
youtu.be/G5SaAG3rlQQ?si=gOFS…
This.
$SILVER
There is a fundamental difference between the 2011 peak in silver and what we are seeing today.
Back then, rising prices were accompanied by a massive increase in production.
Today, that supply response is completely missing.
Don’t confuse a violent correction with the end of a cycle.
tavicosta.substack.com/p/the…
Joe Main retweeted
I’ve got some premium air to sell you if you believe $200 silver is coming within 6 months.
David Hunter sees gold reaching $7,000 an ounce and silver climbing to $200 over the next three to six months. He believes precious metals likely carved out a major low after recent selling washed out bullish sentiment, pointing to silver's prior surge from the $40s to $122 in less than three months as precedent. In his view, falling bond yields will push the U.S. dollar down toward 82 to 84, fueling the move. He expects this next rally to deliver higher highs and an even steeper advance than the last.
When in doubt, zoom out.
#silver - when in doubt, zoom out.
Nothing has happened in Silver really. It is just retesting a massive breakout. It has moved 150% and now down 32% for a retest.
Silver has always been volatile, so it is fine for it to move this much.
Whatever goes up with velocity and strength has the possibility to come down with the same velocity and strength.
This is a good time to accumulate #silver, if you are planning to. If holding and have no additional funds, it is fine too. You can hold for bigger targets.
Joe Main retweeted
Nice looking #Silver Chart 🍹😎
PS: It's all about perspective & conviction 📈✅
#BuyRightSitTight
#PreciousMetalsSuperCycle 🔃
🤘🦅
I hope to God this comes true...
The year is 2035. AI has taken over the internet. Nothing online is real anymore. Every video, every influencer, every girlfriend, every news story is fake. So everyone logged off.
Digital work was obliterated and automated. The most valualbe skills are now cooking, fixing a truck, farming and fixing things with your hands.
You moved to the land with your wife and 5 close couples.
Farmers and mechanics are the new millionaires. Dinner parties are the new social media. People write letters again. Your kids grow up barefoot, climbing trees and eating steak and eggs instead of scrolling.
News? the only news is your 6th kid on the way.
Turns out AI didn’t destroy humanity. It just made the internet so fake that we finally went back outside.
Joe Main retweeted
1774: they blew tobacco smoke up drowning victims' backsides to revive them, and the kits hung along the Thames like lifebuoys.
1863: they sold cocaine wine as a daily tonic, and a pope pinned a gold medal on it.
1898: they sold heroin as a cough medicine, and spooned it into coughing children.
1918: they sold radium water as a health drink, and the millionaire who drank 1,400 bottles was buried in a lead-lined coffin with most of his jaw gone.
1921: they put lead in petrol, and Britain kept it in the pumps until 2000.
1930s: they X-rayed children's feet in shoe shops, and kids queued to watch their toes wiggle on the screen.
1940s: they rubbed mercury teething powder into babies' gums, and about 1 in 500 of those babies was poisoned.
1946: they sold cigarettes on the line that more doctors smoked their brand, and put a man in a white coat on the advert.
1949: they gave the lobotomy a Nobel Prize, and doctors went in through the eye socket with an ice pick.
1952: they sold a cigarette filter made of asbestos as the greatest health protection in smoking history, and smokers drew it into their lungs with every puff.
1957: they sold thalidomide to pregnant women for morning sickness, and around 10,000 babies were born with missing or shortened limbs.
1960s: they sold margarine as the heart-healthy fat, and spread trans fat on a generation's toast.
1996: they sold OxyContin as barely addictive, and started an overdose epidemic.
1999: they sold Vioxx for sore joints, and pulled it five years later after tens of thousands of heart attacks.
2026: they're selling seed oil as the heart-healthy fat, and it's in almost every packet in your kitchen.
Every one of these came with an expert's blessing and the same total certainty.
The people telling you which fat to fear today sit in the same chairs as the ones who put radium in the water and a doctor on the cigarette packet, and they're every bit as sure.
"The experts recommend it" has the longest body count in medicine.
AI getting better every day.
You can obviously still tell it's not real footage (Eiffel Tower burning down).
But, can you tell it's not real actors with movie CGI?
We're getting very close to that.
It's only a matter of time.
$SILVER
A textbook bounce off the bottom end of the expected support range (image 1).
Looks like it wants a bit higher (image 2) possibly into the $58.50-$59 USD zone.
Clearing and holding over $59 opens it up to higher on the larger time frames.
But I would watch for rejection in that expected resistance zone.
If it stalls and then falls back down through the blue zone, it could be it was just a little rally and lower price might be coming.
