Joe Main

SILVER HAS CRASHED 60%. BUT HAVE WE SEEN THIS BEFORE? At the end of 2025, I wrote an article explaining why I believed gold and silver were heading into its final run before a deep correction. couriermail.com.au/business/… How did I come to that conclusion? By studying the chart's personality. History doesn't always repeat, but it often gives us clues. Look at the chart below. Historically, silver has shown seasonal weakness from around February-April through to October/November. Now, everyone's calling this the worst silver crash in history. But here's what's interesting. During the previous major Wave 4 correction in 2008, silver fell around 60% between March and November. Fast forward to 2026. Silver peaked around February and has now corrected approximately 59% into November. Almost the exact same correction. Almost the exact same seasonal window. But what fascinates me most isn't the price. It's the psychology. For years, I'd been posting bullish analysis on gold and silver. Then, at the end of January, I warned that we were approaching the top of the wave and a major correction was coming. The abuse was incredible. "Don't you understand the fundamentals?" Mate, the fundamentals you're explaining are the exact fundamentals Tung and I were discussing on YouTube back in early 2024! youtu.be/d1BDXiKPk7U They're not new. That's WHY we were buying silver in the $20s, long before it went on to rally around 6x. You're buying a story today that we understood years ago. And now look what's happened. Sentiment has completely flipped the other way. The same people who couldn't imagine silver falling are now convinced it's all over. This is how market cycles work. Accumulation, public participation, excess, correction - wipe out the excess. Then the cycle starts again. And right now, there's a LOT of confluence suggesting another major market low could be approaching. Look at what's lining up. Gold-to-Dow ratio is back at key support. Gold-to-silver ratio is back at key resistance and very overbought, with the potential to turn lower. Commodities are deeply oversold and approaching important technical levels. Seasonality is lining up with previous major lows. Market sentiment has swung heavily towards fear and bearishness. When you have this many independent pieces of evidence pointing towards the same outcome, you pay attention. Does that mean the bottom is definitely in? Of course not. But it tells me the probabilities of a major reversal are increasing. As I told everyone last night, I'm NOT blindly buying. I'm watching closely for the technical evidence of a major reversal. The price has entered an area that interests me. Now I need the market to confirm it. The eagle has spotted its prey. Now it's time to zoom in, wait for the right moment, and strike. Patience. Preparation. Execution.

WHAT HAPPENED TO PROPERTY DURING THE GFC? Most people know US property prices crashed during the Global Financial Crisis, but very few understand what actually happened beneath the surface. When you buy a property, you're buying two things. The land and the dwelling sitting on it. What's fascinating is how the relationship between these two changes throughout major property cycles. Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examined US residential land and building values from 1975 to 2012. In 1998, land accounted for approximately 30% of total residential property values. But by late 2005, that ratio had climbed to a staggering 48.5%! Almost HALF the value of residential property was now attributed to the land. So what happened when the property cycle reversed? Between 2006 and 2012: 🏡 Land values COLLAPSED approximately 69% 🏗️ Aggregate building values actually ROSE approximately 3% 📉 Total residential property values fell approximately 31% Following the crash, the land-to-property value ratio had fallen all the way back to 21.3%. From almost 50% to just over 20%! The buildings themselves hadn't experienced the same collapse in aggregate value. It was the land that absorbed most of the correction. And this is why understanding property cycles is so important. Did it crash or did it just return to the historical average? Land can become extremely expensive during a boom, particularly when cheap credit, speculation and strong buyer demand push valuations higher. But when those conditions reverse, land values can experience enormous corrections. It raises a very interesting question. What proportion of Australian property values today is actually land, and how does that compare with historical levels? Because understanding what happened in previous property cycles might tell us far more than simply looking at house prices. I'll share tomorrow.

GOLD MINERS VS JUNIOR MINERS: WE'VE HAD NO SPECULATION. One of the most important things to understand about commodity bull markets is how money rotates as the cycle develops. Typically, it follows a pattern: • Gold moves first, attracting the initial capital. • Larger gold miners follow, as rising gold prices improve profit margins. • Junior miners and explorers take off, as confidence builds and investors chase greater returns. It's usually towards the euphoric end of a major bull market that the juniors massively outperform the larger producers. But here's what's interesting. We haven't seen that yet. GDX tracks the larger gold miners, while GDXJ provides exposure to smaller, more speculative miners. The GDXJ/GDX ratio has essentially moved sideways for years, even during the extraordinary precious metals rally. Think about what that tells us. Gold has surged, yet miners haven't established sustained long-term outperformance against gold. And within the mining sector, juniors haven't meaningfully outperformed the larger producers. Money hasn't fully rotated down the speculative risk curve. If this were the euphoric end of the commodity cycle, I'd expect the opposite. Investors would be aggressively chasing returns through the miners and increasingly through the juniors. A TOP, OR THE TOP? We've certainly seen periods of excess in gold and silver, followed by some brutal corrections. But when I zoom out across the broader commodity complex, I'm not seeing the widespread speculative behaviour I'd expect at the end of a major secular bull market. Not yet. That doesn't guarantee the cycle continues, but it's an important piece of the puzzle. Remember, a major correction can mark the end of a wave without marking the end of the entire bull market. That's why understanding relative strength and where money is rotating matters so much. There's a big difference between calling A top and calling THE top. Top of a wave maturing of the cycle. Miners shoukd outperform from this point of the cycle.