James Bailey (@jbailey) header
James Bailey (@jbailey) profile picture

Professor @ProvidenceCol, Health Economist, two-bit hedge wizard. Formerly @1ArmedEconomist

Providence
Joined May 2010
Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)Photo by James Bailey (@jbailey)
James Bailey retweeted
FYI you can just watch ElectionBettingOdds.com It averages Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt; it has a charming mid-90s "I just learned HTML" interface; and it keeps you off here and off gambling sites
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James Bailey retweeted
This time of year, as it gets dark around 430pm, I remember this Milton Friedman passage... The argument for a flexible exchange rate is, strange to say, very nearly identical with the argument for daylight savings time. Isn't it absurd to change the clock in summer when exactly the same result could be achieved by having each individual change his habits? All that is required is that everyone decide to come to his office an hour earlier, have lunch an hour earlier, etc. But obviously it is much simpler to change the clock that guides all than to have each individual separately change his pattern of reaction to the clock, even though all want to do so. The situation is exactly the same in the exchange market. It is far simpler to allow one price to change, namely, the price of foreign exchange, than to rely upon changes in the multitude of prices that together constitute the internal price structure. in The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (or, In Recognition of Sticky Prices)
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James Bailey retweeted
It’s No Joke. Nonprofit Hospitals Are More Profitable than For-Profit Hospitals Studies find that nonprofit hospitals achieve greater profits with higher average prices than for-profit hospitals. On average, nonprofits have 29% greater profits than for-profits. scottahodge.substack.com/p/i…
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James Bailey retweeted
Proud of our CON reform in RI. More supply to lower healthcare costs. Exempts home health, behavioral health, imaging & ASCs; CapEx threshold now 50M, and more. “Rhode Island enacted the most sweeping Certificate of Need repeal of any state during the 2026 legislative session.”
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James Bailey retweeted
Econ of science folks - this position via FAS is really interesting if you want policy impact. Essentially, it's a metascience/econ of science position embedded quite high up at places like DOE. They allocate *billions* to R&D, w/ big changes due to AI/Genesis/OSTP doc/etc.
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James Bailey retweeted
this but for AI
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James Bailey retweeted
Political scientists and economists: we're looking for researchers with deep expertise to come work with us for a unique 4-month fellowship at @AnthropicAI. You'll work closely with us to evaluate, improve, and apply Claude's capabilities in your field. It's going to be extremely fun and interesting work, and definitely worth taking a short leave from your university for if you need to! More info here: job-boards.greenhouse.io/ant…
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James Bailey retweeted
FIGURES: A West Virginia researcher crunching state betting numbers finds 43M bets placed by just ~16K bettors. And when does demand spike for slots? Every second, third and fourth Wednesday — Social Security payday. @MyBuckhannon mybuckhannon.com/high-roller…
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1/ I am on the #EconJobMarket! A (brief) 🧵on my research covering housing, state and local government performance, and regulation.
Replying to @UCSDEcon
Who wins with up-zoning? @phoxie58 shows how deregulation for ADUs capitalizes into land values, benefitting home owners and increasing property tax collections, even with low take-up. Check out his JMP, publications, and working papers at: philiphoxie.com/ #EconJobMarket
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James Bailey retweeted
All time for real 30s (TIPS).
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James Bailey retweeted
I'm hiring 2-3 Associate Program Officers or Research Fellows for my team at Coefficient Giving. The job involves grant-making and research on AI x global health and development. We're aiming to spend ~$100M in the next year, on questions ranging from how LMICs can grow if AI eats the export-services path, to whether AI-read TB X-rays work in clinics without a radiologist. Apply here by Oct 4 if it sounds interesting: jobs.ashbyhq.com/coefficient…
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Thanks for the mention. You can learn more about effective altruism at effectivealtruism.org
Americanism, not effective altruism. The United States will continue to be AI DOMINANT! 🇺🇸
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Scott Aaronson HAS SEEN ENOUGH. "It seems to me that the Singularity has already started; it’s just wildly unevenly distributed." scottaaronson.blog/?p=10062
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Replying to @UBuffaloEcon
@UBuffaloEcon is hosting a health econ (and adjacent) conference on Oct. 9th. Come for the beautiful fall, maybe visit Niagara Falls while you're here, and also meet some fellow health econ researchers! Submit your abstract by Sept. 11! Submit here: lnkd.in/g6Q33WZd
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This University of Chicago business school professor has authored 258 academic papers in 2026 (so far). statmodeling.stat.columbia.e…
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James Bailey retweeted
Applications for the first round of lightconecommons.com are closing this Sunday! We'll likely facilitate $35M of grants by end of October. The application process is minimal and extremely flexible. If you have an ambitious project of almost any scale, send in what you have.
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James Bailey retweeted
If there's a blogger you miss, someone who has shaped your worldview but hasn't posted recently nominate them for revive.blog ! we're issuing bounties of $1k (or more) to bring our favorite dead blogs back to life
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Incredibly laudable move by @AnthropicAI: $200 million allocated to RCTs 🙌 @JPAL researchers get busy! Anthropic: “In addition to large-scale RCTs and pilots, we’re also interested in working with partners that could scale up a program of effective small-scale pilots” In particular, we are interested in studies that: •Use randomized assignment or other research designs that establish causal relationships •Are large enough to detect policy-relevant effects and to inform policy design (typical sample sizes in the thousands to tens of thousands of workers) •Are conducted in partnership with state, local, or national government implementing agencies, where applicable •Pre-register their designs and commit to publishing findings regardless of result •Build evidence that translates directly into policy levers governments can pull •Consider programs that can scale beyond the initial analysis anthropic.com/news/economic-…
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