Co-founder https://teapawt.org/t.co/l1bLqVWRNg. Small-time angel investor. Software Engineer.
Melbourne, Australia
Joined March 2009
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The:
- net tax-take dip (via lock-in effects); and
- productivity hit (via higher cost of capital)
aren't bugs Treasury overlooked, they're the price the government has decided to pay.
The higher purpose is "equalising" the taxation of labour income and asset income.
Jim Chalmers uses the phrase "better aligning" to mean "equalising".
Revealed preference: Values > Economics.
I put this exact Q to someone with decades of experience in+around AusGov.
The reply: "Collateral damage".
Which I took to mean something along the lines of
"Undesirable side effects are inevitable."
Australian household living standards
in one chart.
This is the average - median would look slightly worse.
Unpleasant thought: perhaps the thinking behind these changes to the tax system aligns with Australia's present national mood.
In which aspiration means: "nudge singles and occupy the crease. DO NOT go for fours, let alone sixes."
Same profit, different tax - the CGT's dogs breakfast.
My article in the @australian's Inquirer today quotes Chief Economist of the NSW Parliamentary Budget Office, @DerekFranc90653
It's hard to get your head around just how bad this is, because it is so counter-intuitive.
The lock-in effect
It may be that the most economically consequential outcome of the proposed tax rises will not be:
- discouraging founders; or
- founder flight
but something called "the lock-in effect".
The literature on it is consistent across almost 50 years of study.
The basic idea is that raising taxes at exit makes owners less likely to sell.
From there, it's straightforward to predict:
- reduced transaction volumes
- reduced liquidity; and
- a whole set of inefficiencies re: owners that should have sold years ago but were averse to losing half.
Having the highest CGT rate in the world will no doubt put Australia in a position to contribute to the literature on the topic 😊
> There was another factor that had roughly triple the predictive power of brainpower.
teapawt.org/rshotton/status/135849…
Leni Mayo retweeted
Such a great email sent by a Dyson Institute Undergraduate Engineer to James Dyson after his announcement of new Degree Awarding Powers @Dyson
Leni Mayo retweeted
What determines the success of #COVID19 #TestAndTrace?
Our SEIR on a graph says:
(i) Symptom Onset to Test Time (& to self-isolation)
(ii) Share of Contacts Traced
Less important:
(iii) Test & Trace Time: test turnaround & contact tracing time.
medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/…
1/
Leni Mayo retweeted
Air flow from a person breathing, talking, and coughing, with & without face mask. Visualization by @LaVisionInc
Leni Mayo retweeted
With this new info, WHO is considering calling a world conference to discuss whether we should consider recommending we all wear hats sometime in 2021.
The UK's response to COVID-19 explained with a bucket of water
Australia is roughly level with Italy in COVID-19 tests per capita
Which is an encouraging thought
businessinsider.com.au/coron…
health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages… - credit to @NSWHealth for regular updates and transparency re: numbers ==> breeds confidence
Excellent paper in @TheLancet on the difficult tradeoffs:
> Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths and the economic impact
> Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
#COVID19
Leni Mayo retweeted
On the face of it, one might not guess that it has been 50 million years since pinnipeds (seals et al.) evolutionarily split from other caniforms (dogs, etc.) during the Eocene.
#coronavirus has 'traction'
teapawt.org/MarkHiggie1/status/123…
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Leni Mayo retweeted
“YAML is super picky and annoying!” snivels an entire generation who never had to touch a BIND zone file.
Leni Mayo retweeted
We're still on the hunt for world-class cyber security startups to join our Feb 2020 accelerator program, so we've partnered with @startupindia to search for the best local talent. Based in India and have some impressive cyber tech? Let's chat! startupindia.gov.in/content/…
