Raf retweeted
FOMC summary
No balance sheet pivot
- fed still selling assets. money printer not injective liquidity yet.
25 bps cut
- as expected
Powell shifts to signal slow rate cuts in 2025
- short term panic today due to uninformed investors
- long term bullish: we need slower rate cuts to signal delayed recession. Fast cuts are bad.
- inflation will still be high, which is good for risk on assets
Raf retweeted
Started scaling into $RNDR position here on huge HTF support
I think AI runs hard as fuck at some point in the next few months. Rndr likely to be the leader for next leg higher
Good proxy to use RNDR as indication for AI strength / weakness
Coming into support here
Raf retweeted
No major panic in the market. The way investors can see this is that capital is rotating vs leaving the stock market. Today, NVDA is down but money is moving into AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL and AMZN. When panic hits, they will all fall together.
Raf retweeted
Powell: “We think policy is restrictive. And we think ultimately if you just set policy at a restrictive level, eventually you will see real weakening in the economy.”
Raf retweeted
Warning: The consumer is borrowing more than they can afford
Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders has hit 7.51%
This level is higher than the last 3 major economic crisis:
1. Dot Com bubble
2. Financial Crisis
3. C-19
Raf retweeted
TOTAL market cap of crypto.
Some people look at this and get fearful.
Others see massive opportunity.
No guarantee this plays out, but imagine the smell if it did. The real money is made in the depths of the bear market, not at the peak of a future bull.
Raf retweeted
A pattern you will probably see more over the coming days.
Probably wise if you're trading $BTC to wait for a confirmation before positioning yourself.
Ascending triangles have a higher probability to break out towards the upside but there are never any certainties.
Raf retweeted
This spread is flashing a major warning signal
Too much optimism in the market is usually not good at least in the short-term
Raf retweeted
Today the SEC, IRS, and NYDFS have decided to go thermonuclear on Crypto. Kraken has shuttered their staking services and been fined $30M, they have been issued a summons by the IRS for user data, and Paxos is being investigated by the NYDFS. Rough waters ahead, tread carefully.
Raf retweeted
The shift back to a bullish outlook has been great.
Peak inflation is in, the Fed is expected to pivot and lots of easy trades.
But, this all assumes inflation is heading in a straight-line lower.
What happens if CPI unexpectedly rises at some point over the next few weeks?
Raf retweeted
Bankrupt #crypto companies 2022-2023:
• Three Arrows Capital
• Celsius Network
• Terraform Labs
• Voyager Digital
• Core Scientific
• Babel Finance
• Hodlnaut
• Genesis
• BlockFI
• Zipmex
• FTX
