@SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
washington dc
Joined August 2019
- Tweets26.5K
- Following536
- Followers32.8K
- Likes138K
#MaineSenate
NYT: In Maine, an “Oyster Thug’s” Struggle to Get Over Graham Platner
A Platner superfan’s reluctance to support the Democrat now running against Senator Susan Collins reflects the party’s challenges navigating left-wing passions.
nytimes.com/2026/10/26/us/po…
i am not going to admit how much time i just spent on this website
NYT: Introducing a New Way to Understand the Election
When the dust settles on election night, the story won’t simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?
This year, we’re going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.
nytimes.com/2026/10/25/upsho…
underrated subplot of this year is the possibility that Colorado Republicans just lose every single House seat and get blown out in the governor’s race by like 25 points, condemning them to banishment to the shadow realm
DCCC poll | 10/21-10/22 LV
US House 2026 | Colorado’s 3rd congressional district
(Trump +10 | 2024)
🟦Dwayne Romero 47%
🟥Jeff Hurd 46% (incumbent)
(Democratic pollster)
cpr.org/2026/10/23/could-dem…
special election dynamics used to be so insanely bad for Dems, Republicans flipped Massachusetts when Obama’s approval was straight up positive
#AlaskaSenate
2020 US Senate nominee in Alaska Al Gross says he’s voting for both Dan Sullivans on the ballot and not Mary Peltola
adn.com/opinions/2026/10/15/…
Polls did not project Democrats would be pummeled in 2022! Pundits projected that in direct contradiction of the available data. If 2026 polling is as accurate as 2022, all Republicans can do is brace for impact
Politico: Republicans’ Last Hope for 2026 Is a Polling Miss
Republicans nervous about the midterms are increasingly turning to the same salve: The polling will be wrong.
They aren’t suggesting Republicans will have a good night come Nov. 3 — or that the party will hold the House. But they’re clinging to the possibility that it could be a typically bad midterm year reminiscent of 2022, when polls projected Democrats would be pummeled, only for those predictions to fall short.
politico.com/news/2026/10/15…
I thought Abdul found a Rogers voter who had just committed sooo much fraud
#MichiganSenate
Abdul El-Sayed ad features 9-time Mike Rogers voter who’s supporting El-Sayed in November.
apropos of nothing, a reminder about early vote tracking
CA-13 saw a huge swing to Trump but Biden would’ve won it 58-40% and Dems combined for 57-43% in the primary. Any amount of Hispanic swing back toward Ds would rocket this seat back into their column, and Adam Gray has always been strong
Max retweeted
Here is a map of the 1994 Washington D.C, mayoral election by precinct and while the republican lost it by a margin of roughly 14, it is still the closest a republican has ever gotten to winning a D.C. Mayoral Election.
