STrades retweeted
I've been saying SK Hynix is trading at ~2x 2027 EPS... here are my current assumptions...
2027 DRAM (non-HBM) shipments up +25%
2027 DRAM (non-HBM) prices up +25%
2027 NAND shipments up +20%
2027 NAND prices up +15%
2027 HBM shipments up 60%
2027 HBM prices up 125%
2027 stock buybacks of $110B
2027 cash dividends of $35B
2027 margins stay flat
Results:
2027 revenue growth of ~75% YoY
2027 eps growth of ~90% YoY (depends on where/when they are buying shares)
Guess we'll find out how close I am over the next 12-15 months.
SK Hynix was up +10.8% last night which means the stock is now trading at 2.2x 2027 EPS using my assumptions above however it would have been ~2x 2027 EPS going into the Kospi open last night.
Not sure if others are coming up with similar numbers... curious to see what the sell side says after last night's blowout Q3 earnings report.
SK Hynix crushed it!!!
Q3 revenues of $78.9B vs $74.8B est
Q3 revenues up +328% YoY
Q3 revenues up 32% QoQ
Q3 operating income of $62.8B vs $58.5B est
Q3 operating income up +632% YoY
Q3 operating margins of 79.7% vs 78.2% est
Q3 operating income up 38% QoQ
- will return at least $75B to shareholders in CY2026 through buybacks and dividends, fwiw 'm expecting this number to be $150B in CY2027
- LTAs signed with 14 key customers including all major hyperscalers on 5+ year terms
- expect demand to outpace supply through 2030
Just an insane quarter from SK Hynix... now that Q3 is in the rear view mirror, the stock is officially trading below 3x NTM EPS which is just absurd.
I'm not sure what the stock does tonight on the Kospi but I'll sleep good tonight after this report.
LONG MEMORY STOCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
$SKHY $000660.ks
STrades retweeted
IF memory chips will be plentiful in the future, that means that AI chips will also be plentiful in the future.
So how do people justify $AMD having 1,300% higher valuation than $MU on a per $1 of profit?
STrades retweeted
~63% institutional ownership + heavy short interest, while $UPST fundamentals are accelerating: Q2 originations +50% YoY, 21% EBITDA margin, and GAAP profitability.
Institutions are accumulating while the business gets stronger. That setup can get interesting fast.
STrades retweeted
The @Rebellionaire Upstart Q2 2026 Earnings Review is here 📊
$UPST just posted an all-time high Contribution Profit while carrying two money-losing products still scaling toward breakeven. Read that again.
Inside the review: why I believe a FY26 topline revenue beat is coming, enormous pricing power within core, the foundation model for credit.
@paulxgu not bad for 100 days 😉
STrades retweeted
$UPST grew revenue 42% last quarter, the fastest Q2 in fintech so far. 95 cents of every revenue dollar was fees.
Quick look at the mix:
1️⃣ Fee revenue grew 45%, faster than total revenue. The interest and fair value line shrank to $17M as funding moved to third parties. This growth is fees on $4.2B of originations, up 50%.
2️⃣ Back to GAAP profitability. Net income of $16.5M, nearly triple last year. Record $193M contribution profit.
3️⃣ The cautions, from their own filings: guidance held flat with their macro index at the top of its range, and the 10-Q flags loan vintages from mid 2023 through early 2024, plus late 2024, tracking below target returns.
4️⃣ The next chapter: conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter came two weeks ago. FDIC and Fed still pending, launch targeted early 2027. Deposits are cheaper than marketplace capital, and I have tracked exactly what that difference is worth at another lender I cover.
STrades retweeted
$UPST Adjusted EBITDA came in extremely strong at approximately $76.9M
For me, this is almost more important than pure revenue growth. It shows the business model is scaling again.
Higher loan volume isn’t just driving more revenue, it’s translating into significantly stronger operating profitability.
Upstart is showing growth, funding confidence and improving profitability, while the potential banking license could become another major catalyst.
The slight EPS miss is a blemish, but the bigger story has clearly improved.
I think $50 is realistic from here, with $80 potentially on the table if the banking license comes through.
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STrades retweeted
One of my biggest issues on here.
When stocks are rising, no one ever talks about taking profits and protecting capital and hands out ridiculous prices targets. Anyone who does is labeled a “idiot shill spreading FUD who doesn’t understand the company.”
When stocks are dropping, no one ever talks about buying at key levels because the bottom isn’t in and hands out price targets 20-50% lower. Anyone who does buy at key levels is an “idiot bag holder who couldn’t clearly see the decline”.
It’s the upside down.
STrades retweeted
Added more $MU today.
The thesis is pretty simple...buy low, sell high!
When I can buy a stock with a forward PE of ~5, that means even if the forward profits deteriorates by 50%, and they simply get a PE of 10, they could still maintain their current stock price. How many companies could have 50% decline in expected future profits and would maintain their price if they got a PE of 10!? 🤯
But even more interesting, is that there is no evidence that their estimated profits will deteriorate. All the evidence, such as $GOOGL increasing CapEx, $100 Billion worth of long-term contracts with huge deposits, and the rapid increase of AI adoption across the world, point to continued demand for AI and memory.
So the question is: what happens if Micron's profits continue to grow for the next couple of years?
STrades retweeted
The SK hynix reaction is a perfect example of why understanding the reason a company missed matters.
This was not a demand problem.
The bottleneck was supply.
If you cannot produce enough HBM to satisfy customers, revenue can come in below expectations even while demand remains stronger than ever.
That is fundamentally different from customers pulling back on AI spending.
The market sold first and asked questions later. Now SK is green after hours and QQQ recovered after an initial 1% drop since the initial algo panic sell.
Investors who understand the difference between a supply constrained miss and a demand driven miss have an edge.
