Supply continues to do its thing: For the first time in many decades, apartment rents are rapidly flattening (and could soon go negative) at the same time demand remains healthy. Why? Apartment construction is at 40+ year highs-- shifting the balance of power to renters. YoY, effective asking rents for new leases (same-store) inched up just 0.28% and could turn negative by September. Compare 2023 to the last two times (excluding 2020 pandemic year): early 2000s and 2009. In those prior two periods, rents fell as recessions hit, jobs were lost, demand evaporated and vacancy hit 7-8%. By comparison, in 2023, vacancy has been fairly stable since January in the mid 5% range. Demand is solid, but operators are giving on price in order to compete and to protect occupancy / cashflow. That'll likely continue through 2024 as supply peaks, before 2025-26 as supply by then will be significantly less. The rent slowdown won't show up in CPI until early-ish 2024. But it'll happen. CPI rents won't go negative by then, but they'll look pedestrian at that point.