Nom de Plume: Mimi Kijana

Let me tell you about a cognitive bias called survivorship bias and how it affects the way we see and understand success. We often study successful people, examine their habits, decisions and strategies, and assume those things explain why they succeeded. But we rarely study the people who made similar decisions, worked just as hard, took the same risks and still failed. The problem is that we draw conclusions from the people who succeeded while ignoring the many others who followed similar paths but didn't get the same results. It makes success look more predictable than it actually is. This is why I think we somehow overestimate the role of hard work, discipline and intelligence in success. Sometimes, what separates two people isn't necessarily intelligence, discipline or hard work. It could be timing, access to resources, circumstances or sheer luck. There is a lot to learn from successful people, but there is also a lot to learn from those who tried and failed. Studying only the winners gives you an incomplete picture.

A lot of people are not good people. They are just people who have never been in a position where being good would cost them something. Many people are not as principled as they think. They have simply never been sufficiently tempted. It is easy to talk about loyalty when you have nothing to gain from betraying someone. It is easy to preach honesty when the truth doesn't threaten your interests. It is easy to condemn infidelity when you have never had an opportunity to cheat without getting caught. It is easy to talk about integrity when doing the right thing doesn't come at a personal cost. I think we sometimes give people too much credit for virtues they have never actually had to demonstrate under pressure. Your character is not fully revealed by what you say you would never do. It is revealed by what you have the opportunity to do, what you stand to gain from doing it, and what you choose when nobody can hold you accountable.