Tod Pedler (@tpedler) header
Tod Pedler (@tpedler) profile picture

Founder. Currently building https://teapawt.org/t.co/qyZUoMFJta - A private Al for the Enterprise. Also @centricminds @teamlightrium #buildinpublic #bootstrapped

Melbourne, AU
Joined April 2007
A list of surprising and mind-boggling stats from this conversation: - $1B+ a year in transaction volume (still invite only) - Growing 10%+ A DAY and has spent zero dollars on marketing - 40% of users shared a personal credit card with Instinct within 3 weeks - Compute demand is doubling roughly every week - At 5 to 8% daily growth over the months it takes to bring new compute online, Instinct would reach about 100 million users - On Instinct's own A/B tests, it matches Opus 5 performance at a fraction of the cost - Noah spends about 40% of his time on compute - Buying compute at the last minute costs 3 to 4x more - Background work runs on setups that are 3x, 5x and 8x more efficient on the same compute - 50% of Instinct's transaction volume is travel - Instinct plans to take a cut of what users buy (take rates, Shopify is~2.5-3%, Amazon ~15%, Apple 30%) - Noah's personal goal is to keep Instinct free for everyone for life - Some small businesses run their entire back office on Instinct - Users who connect at least one piece of sensitive information retain at about 80% - Some users send more than 90% of their messages to Instinct by voice - Say an app makes 70% of its money from ads and 30% from actually selling you things. Agents could wipe out the 70%, but Noah thinks the 30% gets much bigger, because people buy more when buying takes zero effort - Instinct launched to about 200 friends and family - Invites have sold on eBay for around $300 - More than 50% of Instinct's traffic doesn't run on iMessage - Instinct has proactively called Noah three times - The company is less than a year old - Raised $1B at a $10B valuation, less than a month after raising at $2.5B - Noah is 23
My conversation with Noah Shinn (@noahrshinn), founder of Instinct. Noah is building a personal AI assistant. It's still invite only, has spent nothing on marketing, and is growing roughly 10% A DAY. This is his first long conversation about the company. We discuss: - Why Instinct doesn't have an app - Buying compute months ahead of exponential demand - How users learn to trust it with a credit card - Safety and security - Agents coordinating with other people's agents - Instinct's business model - Apps built on consumer inertia - and more Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 4:11 What people are using AI agents for 15:07 Rethinking travel, reservations, and the internet 22:43 Trust, privacy, and personal data 27:50 The business model behind Instinct 38:04 How existing businesses will adapt 47:55 Designing a personal assistant people love 53:15 Growth, compute, and competing with Big Tech 1:11:44 What’s next for Instinct and personal AI
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I’m so glad another generation gets to experience this meme ❤️😂😂😂
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The RBA has now confirmed an obvious consequence of the CGT changes… that they’ll trap capital in existing assets and starve growing companies of the investment they need… the same capital misallocation I warned could contribute to the Japanification of Australia. theaustralian.com.au/wealth/…
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“I was running a $70 billion company the way somebody who thought he was going to starve next week would run it."
My conversation with @travisk, founder of Atoms and Uber. 0:00 Building Atoms & the Meta Problem of Management 3:51 The Appeal of Impossible Problems: Starting Over in China 12:19 Uber vs. Didi: Copycats, Hypergrowth & China's Rules 21:02 How Network Effects Become an Efficiency Fortress 31:48 Capitalism vs. the Taxi Cartel 44:05 The China War Goes Global & the Entrepreneur's Capacity for Pain 54:04 Life After Uber: Lawfare, Media Narratives & Reputation 58:21 What Founders Get Wrong About Venture Capital 1:08:35 The Fundraising Playbook: QED Storytelling & a Five-Room Auction 1:18:38 The Uber Coup, Radical Accountability & Outgrowing Fear 1:26:42 Why Specialized Robots Beat Humanoids at Industrial Scale 1:31:30 Finding Your Sport: Food, Mining & the Physical AI Stack 1:40:14 How to Build Many Companies Inside One Company 1:46:33 Entropy, Civilization & the Meaning of Progress Includes paid partnerships.
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Nobody expected a two year old company to out grow Amazon and Microsoft's cloud businesses but the chart proves it happened (Save this). The chart lines up every major cloud provider by how many quarters have passed since each one launched its cloud business. CoreWeave hit roughly $2.6 billion in quarterly revenue by its 26th quarter since launch, a level Azure took nearly 30 quarters to approach and AWS still hasn't reached at the same point in its own timeline. Nebius shows an even steeper early curve, rocketing from near zero to nearly $600 million in quarterly revenue within just seven quarters of its pivot to AI cloud, a pace none of the legacy hyperscalers came close to matching that early in their own histories. Here's why this matters enormously for the bull case on neoclouds. A hyperscaler like AWS or Azure has to support decades of legacy enterprise workloads, security requirements, and a sprawling product catalog, which slows down how fast it can pivot fully toward AI compute. A neocloud has no legacy business to protect, so every dollar of capital and every ounce of company focus goes toward the two most important scaling levers, buying GPUs and turning on data center power to fill demand. The revenue numbers back up the chart. CoreWeave's actual second quarter 2026 revenue hit $2.58 billion, up 112% year over year and its contracted revenue backlog exploded 246% year over year to $104.2 billion, with more than $25 billion in additional commitments already signed in the current quarter alone. That backlog means CoreWeave already knows, with a high degree of certainty, how much revenue it's converting into cash over the next several years, since more than half of that backlog is tied to contracts where customer delivery has already begun. Nebius shows the same acceleration from the other end of the growth curve. Nebius grew revenue 683% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 to $399 million, then followed that with 454% year over year growth in the second quarter to $582 million. Pricing power is showing up in the numbers too. CoreWeave's management explicitly said its near term capacity is effectively sold out and it's now securing new compute agreements on increasingly favorable terms, meaning customers are willing to pay more for guaranteed access rather than waiting in line. That's the clearest sign a business has genuine pricing power, since it's turning scarcity into higher margins rather than discounting to fill capacity. Even using conservative estimates, the neocloud lines are outpacing them at the same point in their growth journey, which suggests the market is underestimating just how quickly specialized AI infrastructure providers can scale relative to diversified hyperscalers. This is exactly why we’ve been so focused on neoclouds at Milk Road, and subscribers are already up massively on some of the trades we’ve made around this theme. If you want to see exactly what we’re buying and trading as this AI infrastructure buildout continues, come join us for just $1 using the link below.
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housing crisis banking crisis currency crisis its coming, in that order
Australian housing prices from their peak (within the last 365) by capital city.
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Like every #SaaS company in 2026, we've finally solved our biggest problem. Not surviving, but that our site wasn't modern enough. Anyway, after an unreasonable amount of effort please admire the gradients we've invested shareholder value into: centricminds.com
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But they have never worked a day in the private sector; never started a business; built a new product or service; hired a single soul from their hip pocket; or struggled for years, always at risk of going under… What we are seeing is the lid being lifted on those who have always lived completely taxpayer-funded lives trying to take and tax as much as possible to feather the public sector nest. They have never known what it is like to draw a private wage and/or profit. They think it is a zero sum game: any private income, profit or capital gain needs to be redistributed back to government and its dependents. It is the only way they know how to make money: by taxing private citizens and corporations to fund the public oligarchy and its way of life…
government types think they have the skill to pick winners and losers
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Anthropic acaba de lanzar el empleado más barato y eficaz del mundo. Se llama “Claude for Small Business”. Y esto es lo que puede hacer: • Gestionar facturas, pagos y finanzas • Crear campañas, diseños y contenido • Organizar ventas y clientes automáticamente • Leer, resumir y redactar documentos • Gestionar emails, calendarios y archivos • Ejecutar tareas entre múltiples apps Todo desde Claude. Cómo funciona: → Conectas las herramientas que ya usa tu empresa → Claude entiende el contexto de todo tu negocio → Ejecuta flujos de trabajo automáticamente → Incluye automatizaciones ya preparadas → Funciona con Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, Canva, DocuSign, QuickBooks y más Anthropic no quiere que Claude sea “otro chatbot”. Quiere convertirlo en el sistema operativo de millones de pequeñas empresas. La idea es simple: En vez de abrir 10 herramientas distintas, hablas con Claude y él hace el trabajo por ti.
NEW: Anthropic launches "Claude for Small Business"
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Microsoft Scales Back AI Goals Because Almost Nobody Is Using Copilot extremetech.com/computing/mi…
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Founder-led sales 💪
"Sell the alpha, not the feature": The enterprise sales playbook for $1M to $10M ARR with @jjen_abel Jen is GM of Enterprise at @StateAffairsUS, co-founder @jjellyfish_co, and one of the sharpest minds I've ever met on all things enterprise sales. In this follow-up to our first chat two years ago (covering the founder-led sales zero to $1M phase), we focus on what founders need to know to grow from $1M to $10M ARR. We discuss: 🔸 The dangers of pricing your product $10K-$20K 🔸 Why tier-1 logos counterintuitively make the best early customers 🔸 Why the “mid-market” doesn’t exist 🔸 How to find and work with design partners 🔸 Why you need to vision-cast instead of problem-solve 🔸 Why services are the fastest way to get your foot in the door with enterprises 🔸 When to hire your first salesperson and what profile to look for 🔸 Much more Listen now 👇 • YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=37fKFWdr… • Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/29W… • Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas… Thank you to our wonderful sponsors for supporting the podcast: 🏆 @WorkOS—Modern identity platform for B2B SaaS, free up to 1 million MAUs: workos.com/lenny 🏆 @Lovable—Build apps by simply chatting with AI: lovable.dev/ 🏆 @coda_hq—The all-in-one collaborative workspace: coda.io/lenny
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You can definitely see this playing out
Sam Altman says Slack has many positives, but it creates endless fake work We need an AI-native productivity suite to replace docs, slides, email, and Slack Not add-on features, but trusted agents that handle work and only escalate when needed This finally feels within reach
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Looking forward to presenting @newdialogueai at #techweeksingapore this week! If you’re at Big Data and #AI World Asia at Sands Expo & Convention Center, come by Stand U40
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Sad to go by Common Galaxia and see it closed in Seddon. Use to take my daughter there for $20 milkshakes, 10 years ago. Yes, realz
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Just rented a new car in Greece.. realized how much I miss the #tesla Model Y at home.. OEM software hasn’t improved. Still total dog sh*t 💩
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Ok, so it's not quite Sam & Jony… but Matt Vitale and I are working on sovereign, secure, open-source based #AI for #enterprise, along with Brandon Burns who is leading our effort to scale up @newdialogueai - Speed, control, and transparency is where it matters. If you're investing in how your organisation prepares for the future, we’re building the AI to power it. Let’s chat. linkedin.com/posts/matt-vita…
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If you’re building an AI product right now, what are you building and why? What is your defensible moat?
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