RT @ericnuttall: Despite Middle Eastern crude oil exports near/back to pre-war levels for over a month (?), onshore inventories have so far…
John K retweeted
You can have that one, @annmarie.
It’s a vibe contract with the vibe set in Washington. The reason it’s a vibe contract is that ICE Brent never touches a wet barrel. Instead it converges to a futures contract on Dated Bent and is cash settled, making it a derivative on a derivative.
Whether Washington sold barrels is irrelevant, it is the undenied threat that matters here because it has become unpriceable risk that discourages market participants which has caused a sharp decline in open interest, creating this disconnect with reality.
As we discussed earlier, the impact goes beyond pricing. Futures markets exist to help participants hedge risk and guide them on investments. When those signals become distorted, hedging becomes harder, hedgers become hesitant and physical scarcity can worsen.
Washington may be focused on keeping the screen price down, but that doesn’t solve the physical shortage. It makes it worse in the end.
John K retweeted
The question I ask myself every morning now...what oil price to underwrite for 2027? We've been using $70WTI, not a forecast but instead a defendable floor. If status quo persists, $80+WTI is on the table and with it a ~50% increase in average FCF yields:
John K retweeted
The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed by then presidents of Ukraine, Russia, US, UK, and parallel documents by Belarus, Kazakhstan, France, China addressed that Ukraine had inherited roughly 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads (the world’s third-largest arsenal) plus tactical weapons after the Soviet collapse. In exchange for transferring them to Russia, Ukraine obtained security assurances (that were later broken in 2014 and 2022) drawn largely from the 1975 Helsinki Act:
• Respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and existing borders.
• Refrain from the threat or use of force against its territorial integrity or political independence, and never use their weapons against it except in self-defense or as allowed by the UN Charter.
• Refrain from economic coercion aimed at subordinating Ukraine’s sovereign rights.
• Seek immediate UN Security Council action if Ukraine faced threat of nuclear weapons.
• Reaffirm that they would not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine except in the case of an attack by Ukraine.
Kushner has no right to try to justify Russian aggression on Ukraine and is continuing his relentless campaign for financial advantage.
John K retweeted
Proud to see @1947plc officially join AIM.
Initiation research on 1947, by Crest Corporate Broking, titled "Shallow Water, Deep Value", has been published today.
The report takes a closer look at our shallow-water Gulf strategy, 1947's incredibly strong senior leadership line-up and the company's long-term potential growth.
"We believe 1947 Oil & Gas will become the dominant accumulator of producing oil assets in the shallow Gulf of America by exploiting its competitive advantages and a pronounced gap in the market."
On the upside, Crest states: "Our 16.2p target price implies 75% upside, while the value of the company’s booked proven and probable (2P) reserves equates to 26.4p, implying 185% upside from the development of established reserves from existing infrastructure".
You can read the report in full below.
📊 Crest Corporate Broking has published its initiation report on #1947, with a BUY recommendation and 16.2p target price, implying 75% upside.
The report, authored by oil & gas analyst Brendan Long, CFA, also values 1947’s full 2P reserves at 26.4p/share.
Read the new analyst report on #1947: 1947plc.com/wp-content/uploa…
John K retweeted
Putin has told military leaders to abandon rules of war, Zelenskyy says
Ukrainian leader tells FT his Russian counterpart has given the order that ‘there are no rules now’ ft.com/content/c2ad4cd1-a08a…
John K retweeted
Yes, Russia banned diesel exports after a series of highly successful Ukrainian strikes on its refineries — remember, the nation that supposedly had “no cards”?
But Russia is only part of the global diesel problem. The elephant in the room is Trump’s Iran war and the resulting loss of refining capacity and product exports across the Middle East, compounded by lower refinery runs in China. And the Iran war also sent tanker rates through the roof, adding another layer of cost to every marginal crude or diesel barrel that has to travel.
This is a global refining and logistics crisis, not just a Russian refining crisis.
@POTUS
Brent at $96. European diesel at $191.
The oil crisis has migrated downstream: damaged refineries, reduced runs, the wrong grades, depleted stocks & freight consuming the arb.
Crude is available. The product the world needs most - diesel - is not. The Great Value Migration in Oil.
Enjoy
open.substack.com/pub/alexan…
John K retweeted
Giant sucking sound coming out of China: Chinese visible oil inventories fell 35MM Bbls last week...the fastest week-over-week pace on record (!), and are now at their lowest levels since May 2025.
John K retweeted
☕️ Here's a question to ponder over your morning coffee. What would have happened if America had simply not spent the last couple of years behaving like a drunk uncle at a wedding, insulting the bride, the groom, the vicar and the man who parked the cars?
The answer is nothing. Nothing at all would have happened to the rest of the world. Life inside America, on the other hand, would have been a great deal more pleasant, because every single problem the country is currently wrestling with was made in America, by Americans, on purpose, and then explained to the public with a lie.
There was no trade deficit emergency. None. So there was no need for tariffs, which means there was no need for the inflation, the diesel and petrol prices heading for the moon, the farmers queuing for bailouts or the bond market clearing its throat every time the president opens his mouth.
Nobody was ripping America off, so there was no need to insult the Canadians until they took their billions and went home, and started filling in the paperwork to become an associate member of the European Union, which is a sentence nobody expected to write in their lifetime. No need to gift-wrap the soybean market and post it to Brazil, and no need to make the average European feel he is doing something noble by putting the bourbon back on the shelf and buying a Mercedes instead.
Iran would have carried on being Iran, which is to say tedious and unchanged. America would still have its bases scattered across the globe with grateful hosts rather than muttering ones, and the allies would still be buying American missiles rather than build their own. Foreign students would still be paying eye-watering sums to attend American universities, tourists would still be queuing in the Florida sun, and the dollar would still be trusted without anyone having to ask an awkward question.
And here is the truly maddening part. Trump would have been more popular than Putin. He would have been sitting on a booming economy, cheap fuel and a world that still picked up the phone, facing a Democratic party so invisible it could have been declared missing, and the midterms would have been a coronation rather than a coin toss.
In other words, the car was running beautifully. And then somebody climbed in, announced that the engine was on fire, and set light to it to prove the point.
Stay connected,
follow Gandalv @Microinteracti1
RT @EnergyAspects: 'We've been telling our clients for some time now, crude is poised to move sharply higher'
Founder and Director of Mar…
John K retweeted
My god how far we have come as a country in just over a year…a Liberal saying: “In the world we need to live in - not in a magical world - in the world as it is not as we wish it to be, this is the most productive way to be a clean and conventional energy superpower and it makes complete sense to do that.”
John K retweeted
🚨Dear all,
The fraudsters and impersonators have migrated from X to pretty much every social-media platform these days, including Substack, Telegram and even WhatsApp.
Please note: I will NEVER reach out to you, directly or indirectly, to solicit your business, offer investment opportunities or ask you for money.
I have now been alerted that the number below is impersonating me on WhatsApp:
+1 (216) 326-7988
If this number — or anyone else claiming to be me — contacts you, please report and block it. Do not engage.
Thx
John K retweeted
China bought the world some time, but that time has now run out. This war was supposed to be over in 2 weeks...what if there is now no end and this is the new normal?
John K retweeted
Global oil inventories are at all-time lows despite absorbing >400MM Bbls from SPRs + floating storage. With no end in sight to the war, Middle Eastern production ⬇️ 7.4MM Bbl/d vs. February, Strait exports ⬇️ at least 4MM Bbl/d, pressure will continue with 61 days to midterms.
John K retweeted
Chapman's Ice Cream has just done something EVERY Canadian should know.
The largest ice cream company in Canada used to source fruit and nuts from American suppliers — for some, for over 30 years. Then, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian products.
So, what did Chapman's do?
📷 They called Italy.
📷 They called Spain.
📷 They signed multi-year contracts with European suppliers.
And the vice president said it perfectly:
"Even if Trump wakes up smarter than yesterday, we're about to sign long-term deals with other countries — and the American companies that supply them will have nothing but their eyes to cry for."
Oh, and on top of ALL that? They're COLDing their prices so that the average Canadian doesn't have to spend a single cent more.
It's a family business. No shareholders. Just the Chapman family saying: "The least we can do is make sure Canadians still have the means to buy ice cream."
That's what Canadian pride looks like.
Next time you're at the grocery store — grab some Chapman's.
Every scoop of ice cream is a vote for Canada.
RT @robert_ivanhoe: The Future Minerals Forum is squarely focused on strengthening our global critical mineral supply chains that are essen…
This quoted post is unavailable.
John K retweeted
Sick of the Strait of Hormuz export debate? I am. In the end, this is what matters as the nexus of everything is inventories. SPRs are draining, floating storage has been absorbed, and China is coming back. Few safety buffers + Iran/US status quo = new chart axis range soon.
John K retweeted
Americans hear "51st state" as Trump trolling. Canadians hear it as an existential threat to their sovereignty. That gap in perception is why Carney can't afford to look conciliatory, even if the economics of retaliation don't add up. This isn't just a trade war anymore.
John K retweeted
Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury.
Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal.
Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.
