Prediction News Network (PNN)

Too much going on for just one post… • @Polymarket is hiring a Head of Stunt Marketing. Base salary: $240k–$260k. What a job title. • Polymarket also advertises a Head of Fraud paying $500k–$600k. Quite different responsibilities. • @Ckatsikaris1 questions Kalshi’s increasingly unusual advertising. The celebrity weather campaign features @Shanemgillis, Danny McBride and Deep Roy. • @GilsArenaShow promotes Polymarket to its basketball audience. Creators are becoming distribution channels. • @Covers_josh and @AndyFrancess deliver NHL picks presented by @Novig. Another media route. • @dan_bernstein_ asks why Susquehanna is suddenly appearing on prediction-market podcasts. Interesting timing in the quant talent race. • @WangFinance shares recruitment material suggesting top prediction-market quants could earn over $2m a year. • @samschwartz71 reports Polymarket affiliates can receive 20% of referred trading fees. Also spots record trading days across Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, Novig and Underdog. • @BlondiePredicts reports Kalshi institutional-media-day discussion of fractional payouts and single-stock perpetual futures. • The same event reportedly included 822 institutional trading accounts and $29.33bn in October institutional volume. • @GeoffZochodne explores prediction-market parlays. One market maker describes picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. • @kelly_cfa at @talostrading finds an average 3.3-point gap between Kalshi markets pricing related Senate outcomes, rising to 9.7 points. Her research finds the tempting arbitrage often disappears once fees and execution enter the picture. • @Thrillz disputes the idea that prediction-market prices are always efficient. • @gavelsvtw alleges Messi news took 57 minutes to reach a Polymarket price. A possible 15% gap, if the timestamps hold. • @MicNguyenn105 charts the growing share of non-US elections in Polymarket’s election trading. • @SamHenryLazarus publishes @CFR_org research on election hedging, insider trading and how these markets should be governed. • @JeremyNguyenPhD shares @thoughtfullab’s BallotBench: nine AI agents competing to forecast the US midterms. • @TelAvivUni researchers examine 1,014,122 forecasts across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold and Metaculus. • @RutgersU researcher @KnowDice studies ages 13–27. Around 40% of the prediction-market-user subgroup screened high-risk for gambling problems. • @0xForecaster studies 802,863 Polymarket contracts. Models that looked strong historically struggled as markets changed. • @watchPNN talks to @jasontrost. His line: “Election markets are for show, sports markets are for dough.” • @BobbyAllyn says he’s moving from NPR to Bloomberg’s prediction-markets beat. Another reporter following this industry closely. • On Reddit, u/KingRonny3 estimates headline prediction-market notional volume runs around 2.4x the cash actually traded. • u/nhouseholder says a team tested 270+ trading strategies. None passed its strict forward-validation tests. • u/jake_y_ built a Polymarket copy-trading bot. Good backtest, very different live fills. • u/DubsWasASaint studies 85 commodity traders. Aggregate profit reportedly just 2.6% before fees. I have absolutely no idea how anyone keeps up with all of this… but I’m giving it my best shot 😉 Who else on X is doing interesting work that I should be following?