My predictions over the following months: 1. Stock market will get hurt bad when the music stops on data centers, models, and chips. Too much froth, too high of investment, too many companies will fail. The switching costs are low. I don't know how these companies will become profitable. Its a mega bubble. The rest of the economy is already in a deep recession. Real pain will set in when the public markets dive. 2. Power is the bottleneck. AI is burning an absurd amount of power. The cost of electricity is skyrocketing which is making the cost of everyday life more expensive and hurting quality of life. I'm against data centers because of the power, not the water. The grid is extremely fragile and the weakness will be exposed in the coming months. 3. Subsidies are skewing the market. AI isn't cheap. The prices to use it are artificially low because of subsidies all the way up the chain. You pay $20 or $200 a month but the true costs are 10x That spread is venture capital money being incinerated at scale. When they raise the price, the users will disappear and investors will hold the bag. 3. A big security breach is coming. A bank, a certain model, something is going to rock our world. People are letting bots log in to their banks, their email and everything else. Big trouble coming. 4. Grokbot is exceptional. Its the first model that is adding significant value to my everyday life. I don't know why anybody would use a different personal assistant. 5. AI is insanely high maintenance Billions are being poured into training the next model. They day it comes out its already behind. China has cheaper electricity and more chips. The chips they bought will be obsolete in 18 months. Companies are stuck paying big money every month to maintain and update all of their AI tools. Its a mess. 6. The power companies will renege on their deals. Political pressure will unwind all the unsustainable power deals these data centers and LLMs have negotiated. Power costs will explode. Then comes the choice: Do we jack up costs for our AI / compute and watch everybody switch to the next model or do we incinerate more VC capital? Nobody wins. 7. Credit will be the first domino to fall. Data centers are already struggling to finance the GPUs over 10 years when they will be obsolete in 18 months. We'll end up with a shit load of half built data centers who can't negotiate power rates or buy chips because nobody will let them borrow money. The money will get cold feet as soon as the markets tank and the show will be over. 8. It'll be a dark, dark period in economic markets. The people who own assets that make real money (real estate or businesses) will win. The people who plan ahead and avoid massive leverage will win. The people with cash on their balance sheet will accumulate more assets and generate exceptional wealth. -- Don't listen to me. I'm just a bear. Not investment advice. Good luck!

Woah. Is sort of thing happening a lot now on here? Did everyone else already know about this?

Whether or not anyone builds it... everyone dies. The future is uncertain. Your impact doesn't have to be.

there is no moat

Mask Off Moment This is an anonymous account I use to post a bunch of deep tech content on X covering heavy industry, light industry, technology trends, industrial bottlenecks, weird explainers and esoteric insights. iykyk. A lot of very talented people (many of whom run amazing companies) DM me saying please keep posting “this is the best content on X”. I get DMs from VCs asking about companies, and DMs from LPs asking about industrial and economic theories. This is all very flattering, and whilst I sometimes post a bit sporadically I do try and make the effort to tap out a new post most days. The quality of people who follow @object_zero_ is frankly phenomenal, it’s a real privilege to have this channel in my pocket. 40k followers including world leaders, centi-billionaires, serial inventors and entrepreneurs, world renowned scientists, and engineers. I would say it’s a mix, but the reality is that it’s not a mix at all, it’s an extremely high mean and median. I have posted about shipbuilding, nuclear power, the Kroll process, silicon carbide, laser interferometry, heavy steel forging, machine learning, design engineering, CFD, manufacturing methods, power transmission and HVDC. I post about energy and commodities and industry and global macroeconomics. I post about mines and prospecting, minerals on the sea bed and drilling and producing hydrocarbon basins. Don’t worry… I’m not leaving. I’m not ill and I’m not asking for anything. A quick apology… I would post here more often, except I don’t have the time. I am able to post with a bit more breadth and depth because I am genuinely engaged in these things. I don’t want to be presumptive, but I think the people who have reached out to talk to me about their work would attest to this. I simplify a lot of the posts so I don’t collapse the audience, but if you reach out in the comments or DM you can get much sharper commentary. So what is this post? Well, it’s time that I start talking about what I am actually doing irl, who I am, what I am engaged in. Some people on X already know some loose details, some people have met me as Object Zero. But irl, I work about 5,000 hours a year and have done so for 20 years, I believe hard work puts you in a privileged place. It changes you. Over the years I’ve invented and developed new industrial technologies, I’ve built big things, I’ve executed major capital projects. I feel I understand what the world needs in the 2030s and where we are falling short. If you believe you are capable of such things, then you have an obligation to society to go and do them. I am confident I know what it’s possible to do, and what it takes to get it done. I intend to solve our energy infrastructure, generation and transmission and the big BTM loads that are emerging. I’ve already hired the best people in the world for this, people who have architected $6bn assets, people who have commanded $40bn fleets. I’ve hired the best research faculty from the best university. This isn’t a game. We’ve already built and tested the first prototypes, we are already completing the permission processes, the licences and the permits. All the elements already exist, it just needs 21st Century system integration. Because technology has changed, the past is already obsolete, the genie is out of the bottle, the 21st century is getting built on a Western tech stack and/or an Eastern tech stack. There is no in between, there is no middle ground. Both sides have strengths and weaknesses, but if we want freedom we’re going to have to earn it again. We are going to build the biggest products (by mass) that have ever been manufactured, we are going to build a lot of them. They’re going to change the world, and we’re going to get more of this…

Hi @elonmusk , we’ve conducted the most comprehensive study to date on tax unfairness in the United States. We found that you, like your fellow billionaires, pay a lower effective tax rate than the average American. So if you really want to help the American people, I have a better suggestion than charity: pay more taxes. 🧵

Why not pay taxes instead of performative charity?

"If we look at how many prophets were sent by God to this region [Middle East] . We have 55 Christian prophets, over 100 Islamic prophets, we have another 50 Jewish prophets, and none of them have been able to solve this situation. So, to think that we're going to be able to solve it in just a few years is probably not likely." U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack.

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.

Noach’s father and father in law had the same name. (Acc. to Rashi)

Noach’s father and father in law had the same name. (Acc. to Rashi)

The new Roadster will actually do something like this

Quantum is poised to become a multi-trillion dollar industry in the next few years. We think New Yorkers should share in that profit. That's why we negotiated that New Yorkers get board seats and a 15% stake of intellectual property that comes out of NYU's Quantum Fabrication facility. Because all New Yorkers should benefit from the economic success of this city.

We discovered and communicated with a Chinese AI agent fleet. We believe this is the first time that researchers have ever made contact with a rogue agent fleet in the wild. Nearly all prior public agent incidents (like the HuggingFace hack) came from American labs. These agents were hosted by Tencent's evaluation research team, and they targeted Alibaba's Amap.