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Excellent thread breaking down what changed in markets over the past week, as the powerful rotation continued under the surface of a placid world index $ACWI.
Breadth, sectors, countries, themes, stocks, and more, data from @ByteTrend.
Taken a week off from markets?
Here's what you missed, in a thread 🧵
Summary: the world index barely moved, but leadership rotated a lot underneath.
MSCI World $ACWI fell 0.7%. On Friday, its Weekly Local score dropped from 5 to 4, the first time it has been off 5 since mid-April.
Money moved out of megacap tech, semis, precious metals and materials. It moved into healthcare, staples, energy and rate-sensitive stocks.
Leadership across the market kept thinning, as it has since the summer.
There are four types of market events.
First, we have those that are insignificant and widely expected. These are common and have little impact on markets. Next are significant but expected events, like Federal Reserve rate decisions, which are generally well understood and forecastable. Third are small surprises, which are insignificant events that the market didn’t see coming, like a drought or a profit warning.
Finally, there are significant, unexpected events. This is what occurred in Brazil overnight when Lula beat Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential elections.
After five years in a bear market, US bonds suddenly surged against world equities in October.
Low-volatility stocks have also overtaken high-vol names as the strongest trend group. It’s a classic flight to quality.
📉 Stocks with a bearish 0-star daily ByteTrend score: 48% → 29%
📈 Stocks with a bullish 5-star score: 9% → 17%
Semis ($SOXX 👇) held an almost unbroken 5-star relative trend from June 2025. They have now slipped to a neutral 3 and are making new relative lows.
Is this a blip or a real shift?
This week’s Global Trends update by @WinderKit is free to read on our website - link in reply👇
$TLT #Bonds #Semiconductors #Momentum
Gold’s short-term trend is under pressure, and a break below $4,000 seems increasingly likely. In the latest @AtlasPulse Gold Report, Charlie Morris explores the reasons behind gold's lacklustre performance.
📈A serious sovereign bond crisis is underway, and France is at the centre of it. French bond yields are rising faster than Germany's because credit risk is rising. France last balanced its budget in 1974, and unlike the similarly indebted UK, it borrows in a currency it can’t print.
European bond spreads last blew out during the 2010/12 Eurozone Crisis, and gold peaked shortly before French spreads did. Could history repeat?
But France is only part of the story. Charlie also looks at oil, real yields, record ETF holdings, and Bitcoin’s recent run against gold, and what they mean for gold’s medium- and long-term outlook.
The full report is free to read - link in reply👇
$XAU #Gold #debtcrisis #eurozonecrisis
Crypto breadth has turned fast. Two weeks ago, nearly 60% of the top 100 tokens were in uptrends. Today it’s under 10%.
However, zoom out to five years of weekly data, and the crypto bear market looks done. These look like pullbacks in a young bull market.
📈Crypto Breadth – Weekly, Past Five Years. Source: @ByteTrend
Right now, the biggest risk to financial markets is an oil shock, as it impacts everything. #CrudeOil is heading back towards all-time highs, and US WTI is closing the gap with Brent. The world’s oil problem is becoming a US problem too.
Meanwhile, another concern is market concentration.
📈 The world’s 100 largest companies now account for 43% of the global market cap. That level of concentration is rare and usually appears only at major market peaks.
Eventually, that concentration will reverse. We saw major rotations in 1975, 2003, and 2009, and the latest market rotation may already be underway. This is when the real opportunities kick in.
This and more in our latest update of The Multi-Asset Investor by @AtlasPulse - link in reply 👇
#OilPlay #OilShock #BRENTCRUDE
Since 2015, oil refiners have outperformed oil producers, but that is set to change.
📈 Oil refiners’ margins (the crack spread) are at record highs, but the stocks are no longer the bargain they were in 2014.
Meanwhile, the forward oil price is picking up, and the market is signalling that disruption is here to stay.
Today’s Venture targets an oil producer with improving price performance, high returns, and low valuation. With forward oil prices poised to rise, this company is well positioned to benefit - link in reply 👇
The Global Trends Investor is our free weekly note that tracks where momentum is building and fading across global stocks, using our proprietary ByteTrend dataset. It’s built for momentum and trend-following investors who want data-led signals, not noise. globaltrends.bytetree.com/th…
The next big global stock rotation is under way, and it looks more like 2000 than 2009.
Mega-caps are easing back, yet more stocks rose than fell last week. $URTH held flat as mid- and large-caps took up the slack.
📈 Emerging trends have exploded higher, bear trends are easing, and energy is outpacing tech hardware.
This week’s Global Trends update by @AtlasPulse is free to read as always - link in reply👇
#Energy #Oil #MomentumInvesting
ByteTree retweeted
Less than 10% of stocks (blue line) are in strong uptrends. Concentrated in high-vol megacaps.
Red line is the underperformers - 35% of the market in weak trends.
Record breadth means index doesn't reveal lived performance of most stocks.
Data from bytetrend.io
In 20 years, we haven’t seen so few stocks outperforming the market — or so many lagging 📉
@AtlasPulse suspects the last time it was this extreme was at the 2000 dotcom peak. #Semiconductors are rolling over after failing to make new highs. A big rotation looks likely - time to prepare.
🛢️ Meanwhile, crude isn’t selling off despite the messaging. Oil for delivery in late-2027 is rising again, the market’s way of saying oil is staying "stronger for longer."
📈Crude oil spot and forward delivery (source: Bloomberg)
This and more in the latest Multi-Asset Investor - link in reply👇
#Oil $BRNB $SPOG
UK small and mid-caps have been left behind this cycle.
But look closer, and there are hidden gems.
This week’s Venture pick is a UK payments business:
📉 Shares back at 2006 levels
📈 Sales rising nicely
💰 Strong share buybacks
💷 6% dividend yield
And a new uptrend has just begun.
You don’t see that very often. Link to the article in reply 👇
#UKStocks #SmallCaps #Investing
