Coocoo

We shorted $GOTO from its IPO all the way down to Rp28/share. On 2 October 2026, we turned NEUTRAL. Why? Because the fundamentals are finally catching up with the valuation. GoTo's 3Q26 results are difficult to ignore: • Net profit: Rp441bn, up 75% QoQ • Revenue: Rp5.6tn, up 17% YoY • Adjusted EBITDA: Rp950bn, up 84% YoY • Adjusted FCF: Rp1.21tn, up 389% YoY • GoPay EBITDA: Rp550bn, up 304% YoY • Outstanding loans: Rp12tn, up 51% YoY And here's the interesting part. Management values GoTo at just 3.3x FY26E EV/EBITDA, compared with 12.8x for on-demand services peers and 13.6x for fintech peers. That's a 74–76% valuation discount. But cheap doesn't automatically mean BUY. GoPay's rapidly expanding loan book introduces credit risk, especially if persistently high oil prices eventually force Indonesia to raise subsidized fuel prices, squeezing household disposable income and potentially driving higher defaults. Meanwhile, Gojek faces regulatory pressure, weakening margins and potentially softer consumer demand. Add rising Indonesian bond yields, rupiah depreciation and a higher country risk premium, and the market's skepticism becomes understandable. Our short thesis has played out. The turnaround is real. The valuation is increasingly interesting. But we're not bullish yet. The question is no longer whether GoTo can make money. It's whether GoTo can KEEP making money when Indonesia's economic environment gets tougher. Full analysis below. 👇