@ElliscbIV

Project Manager @maristpoll. Election Analysis Fellow @VoteHub. Occasional writing on Substack. Marist '30

 San Diego, CA
ellisbates.substack.com
Joined June 2023
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712Media
In Mississippi's Senate race, the candidate quality gap favors:
86%Scott Colom
14%Cindy Hyde-Smith
99 votes • 21 hours
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Talarico’s ceiling is currently twice Paxton’s, with modeled outcomes ranging from Paxton +6 to Talarico +12. The vote will get redder, but it’s unclear whether it’ll shift enough for Paxton’s floor to match Talarico’s. Predicting persuasion is imperfect, too!
CA ET Nerd
@earlyvotedata9h
I have to be honest, while I understand this is obviously a different start than 2024....knowing how this is going to get redder how is this good for Talarico?
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Or not! Maybe it doesn’t get redder at all. The point is, both candidates are still in this.
James🗳@_fat_ugly_rat_8h
Don't understand the assumption that the electorate will get more favorable to Republicans; it might, but we really can't tell yet! If anything, historically, it gets bluer and less white later in the early voting period!
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Ellis Bates retweeted
Rachel Janfaza
@racheljanfaza18h
The takeaway here is not that young voters are suddenly all Democrats. It's that Gen Z is swingy. This is a generation raised on instant gratification, frustrated by the status quo and rising cost of living. They want change. It's that simple.
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Ellis Bates retweeted
VoteHub
@VoteHub21h
VoteHub partnered with @verasight_data to conduct a new Ohio poll, finding narrow Democratic leads in both the U.S. Senate and governor’s races. Both leads are within the margin of error. Read our full analysis: zurl.co/ggRMi

VoteHub/Verasight Poll Surveys Ohio’s U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Races

VoteHub partnered with Verasight to poll Ohio’s midterm contests. The U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests, as well as the statewide generic ballot, all remain close just weeks before the election.

votehub.com
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In Iowa's Senate race, the candidate quality gap favors:
32%Ashley Hinson
68%Josh Turek
411 votes • Final results
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For Texas stuff -@theoelections -@_fat_ugly_rat_ -@DjsokeSpeaking -@Birenbomb -@scottbraddock -@kaylaguo_ @gromerjeffers
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Governor’s races are more split. The GOP is favored to win blue generic ballot states in NH, NV, and potentially GA, while Dems stand to do the opposite in AK and IA.
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ElectionCord
@ElectionCordOct 21
One potential reason that we are seeing this? LV Samples appear to be older than RV Samples, and whiter. In most of the Marist polls in the second wave, at least, we are seeing this trend. TX (LV): 39% Under 45, 41% Non White TX (RV): 41% Under 44, 44% Non White
ElectionCord
@ElectionCordOct 21
What's interesting is, like the Marist polls, there has been a difference between Registered and Likely voters in the Republicans favor! RV Sample in TX was R+5, LV Sample was R+11 Talarico up 6 in RV, Tied LV Abbott up 1 in RV, 5 in LV
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Ellis Bates retweeted
Juan Wulff@juanfwulffOct 21
Democratic Senate candidate quality could decide control this cycle. Across all Senate and governor races, the parties roughly even out vs. the generic ballot. But in the competitive Senate races, Democrats are overperforming and favored in 10 of 14.
VoteHub
@VoteHubOct 21
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz. votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…

In 2026’s Most Competitive Races, Democrats Have a Candidate Advantage

Across the country, differences between the generic ballot and individual races roughly average out. But how those differences are distributed across races could impact Senate control in the 120th…

votehub.com
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Ellis Bates retweeted
VoteHub
@VoteHubOct 21
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz. votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…

In 2026’s Most Competitive Races, Democrats Have a Candidate Advantage

Across the country, differences between the generic ballot and individual races roughly average out. But how those differences are distributed across races could impact Senate control in the 120th…

votehub.com
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Averaged out, neither party has much of an advantage in their candidates’ expected over/underperformance relative to the generic ballot. A small group of Democrats in close Senate races is the exception—and right now that’s putting them in the driver’s seat to flip the chamber.
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Not sure why it took both parties so long to figure this out. I flagged Mississippi’s potential competitiveness back in March, and post-Callais Black turnout certainly hasn’t helped Republicans in the state.
Axios
@axiosOct 21
SCOOP: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play axios.com/2026/10/21/mississ…

Scoop: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play

Panic is spreading through the Republican Party.

axios.com
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NYT poll is roughly implying, as movement from Trump 2024: - 4-5 pts from differential turnout (it's a Harris +3 weighted recall in LV) - 6 pts from persuasion - 2 pts from new voters
Dj@DjsokeSpeakingOct 21
Final NYT/Siena poll is D+11
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Three high-quality polls released today by NYT/Siena, CNN/SSRS, and Strength in Numbers/Verasight all put Democrats up double digits on the generic ballot. Their edge is fueled by strong leads among independents and Hispanics, alongside Trump’s low approval.
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Georgia's early vote has been more White this week, but the shift is tracking roughly in parallel with 2024. Republicans still aren't seeing the improvement relative to 2024 that they need.
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Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombeOct 21
Can you hear the polls?
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Lots of recent talk about whether Rogers can make real inroads in Detroit. @maristpoll’s new survey finds Benson and El-Sayed running virtually even there. As always, crosstabs are crosstabs, so take it with a grain of salt.
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El-Sayed is underperforming Benson by 5 in @maristpoll’s new likely-voter survey, with a +2 lead to her +6. His deficit is largest among non-white voters and women, while both run similarly among men and independents.
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