@JoeNC05

Former Republican, Politically Homeless, Never Trump, Never Vance, Haley Voter, Election and Redistricting Expert. 🇺🇦🇮🇱

Joined December 2020
  • Tweets33.4K
  • Following1.9K
  • Followers2.8K
2.8KMedia
According to State Navigate: Gov Margin Projection: Spanberger+14.0 My Prediction: Spanberger+14 HoD: 64-36 D My Prediction: 64-36 D Unless AC Cordoza pulls off a miracle I will have 100/100 HoD races correct and be within 0.1% of the gov margin. Please clap.
Joe@JoeNC053 Nov 2025
FINAL 2025 PREDICTIONS: VA Gov: Safe D🟦 Spanberger+14 VA LT Gov: Safe D🟦 Hashmi+11.5 VA AG: Leans D🟦 Jones+2 NJ Gov: Likely D🟦 Sherrill+7 VA HoD: Safe D🟦 64-36 D NJ GA: Safe D 🟦 53-27 D NYC Mayor: Safe Mamdani🟦 Mamdani 50% Cuomo 30% Sliwa 20% In short, I expect a blue wave
19
15
2
180
67,190
Bruh we are not gonna be able to call any GOP races at poll closing
Ethan C7@ECaliberSeven55m
👀 According to Louisiana pollster @WinWithJMC, Letlow is winning LA Senate, but “this is not going to be a slam dunk race”. “I am seeing defections from Rs toward Ds about the 12% range”. Comes amid ASTRONOMICAL black turnout in Louisiana, and a broader Bible Belt tsunami.
3
16
416
CRYSTAL BALL: With a week left, 5 statewide rating changes: #FLSen: Safe R -> Likely R #NCSen: Leans D -> Likely D #SCSen: Likely R -> Leans R #AZGov: Leans D -> Likely D #VTGov: Likely R -> Leans R Plus 16 changes in the House. From @kkondik and me: centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
34
165
40
863
279,188
I'll give them this, Marist unquestionably wins the no herding award this cycle
Ellis Bates
@ElliscbIV19h
Maine Governor 🟦 Hannah Pingree 44% 🟥 Bobby Charles 44% ⬜️ Rick Bennett 6% @maristpoll 10/22-25 | LV
3
16
1,507
The majority isn't enough. I want total moderate victory
21
4
6
90
21,560
Are the pollsters actively trying to avoid being graded for pollster ratings?
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker202421h
Quinnipiac is done polling this cycle, source tells @PollTracker2024
7
10
189
6,602
One thing I am 100% sure about is that nobody's mind will be changed and everyone will use the results to reinforce their pre-existing beliefs
Joe@JoeNC05Oct 26
El sayed is really such an albatross.
2
2
1
20
3,205
I would 100% vote for Mike Rogers if I lived in Michigan. I just dont think El-Sayed will underperform the state lean by double digits. Its Lean D.
6
1
31
1,973
At the end of the day, basically every polling average of the well polled states is within a few points of generic ballot + fundamentals + some reasonable estimation of candidate quality. Really remarkable convergence and stability in this election.
1
1
11
563
El sayed is really such an albatross.
Political Polls
@Politics_PollsOct 26
Michigan Senate: 🔵 El-Sayed 48% (+2) 🔴 Rogers 46% @YouGovAmerica/@michiganstateu, 1,000 LV, 10/2-19 ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/…
13
1
3
96
23,832
I said months ago that Ryan Mackenzie was in worse shape than Perry. 2 polls showing that now (though wide MoE on house polls). Would expect both to be clear losers in the end.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡
@PollTracker2024Oct 26
RedBox poll | 10/20-10/23 LV US House 2026 | Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district (Trump +5 | 2024) 🟦Janelle Stelson 47.6% 🟥Scott Perry 45.2% (incumbent) —— (PA-10 surveyed) —— Pennsylvania Governor 2026 🟦Josh Shapiro 50.7% (incumbent) 🟥Stacy Garrity 38.4%
1
11
1,397
Pointing out that the current president is corrupt and out of control is much more important than some people not being able to afford the cheesecake factory. I say this as someone with no love for Obama.
Evan Barker
@evanwchOct 24
Does Obama not understand that to most Americans the Cheesecake Factory is a very nice and fancy restaurant?
9
604
I'm starting to consider the fact that maybe the senate really isn't that biased against democrats. They seem to have an asymmetrically higher floor and we don't elect all 100 seats at once in a presidential year where a GOP nominee can easily carry 60 on a good night
Drew Savicki
@DrewSavOct 24
Says a lot about how different the parties are that Dems are at least competitive in double digit Trump states but Republicans are not/have not been competitive in double digit Biden/Harris states.
17
7
1
171
12,435
you could also argue D candidate quality advantage is a persistent feature too, though I feel that falls outside the scope. But a potentially big GOP win in a prez year is necessarily followed by a backlash year where at least you'd expect them to lose the normal swing states
2
41
1,566
I didn't think it would be that controversial, but recreating the herculean effort to MAYBE flip the senate seats in Ohio and Iowa is not happening in a presidential year unless it's a huge blowout comparable to the national polling this year
Joe@JoeNC05Oct 24
Since we have a painful 10 days of waiting left, here's where the 2028 presidential election starts.
1
1
55
4,221
Since we have a painful 10 days of waiting left, here's where the 2028 presidential election starts.
56
9
10
1,039
236,145
I think the prediction markets reaction to early voting is basically correct. We are seeing a D turnout advantage as expected, so this reduces the probability of Rs overperforming their polls due to turnout. It would very likely have to be persuasion at this point.
4
2
54
2,406
Im seeing a lot more signs for downballot dems this week, including hinojosa. Before it was mostly just talarico signs
1
48
1,132
This is excluding park cities, Morgan Meyer had a lot of signs there as its his base
8
202
I am having claude build me my own election results site. AI is so cool
1
1
37
2,433
Please donate to DRA, it's more than worth it for the service they provide
Dave's Redistricting@davesredistOct 19
Hi everyone. We need to raise $75,000 to keep DRA available & free for all; & with accurate up-to-date election data from our partner @redistdatahub. For details please check out davesredistricting.org or our campaign at donate.mazloweb.com/donate/R…. Thank you!
2
18
691
Load more