Optimism. Humility. Paranoia. Frugality.
United States
Joined September 2010
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The most important skill in life is retardmaxxing.
Many have been practicing it for years and know it to be the way. Thanks to this dude @ElishaDLong, we finally have a catchy name for it.
Retardmaxxing basically means you want to take action to solve your problems without overthinking. That's because ruminating and introspecting lead to negative energy, loss of momentum, overcomplicating tasks and relationships, and, over time, turn you into a whiny little bitch who constantly blames themselves and others.
You are the only person responsible for and capable of solving your own problems, even if you didn't cause them in the first place. Sometimes you are just dealt a shitty hand.
Your emotions don't solve your problems -- they only make them worse. The world is a messy place. Everyone is busy dealing with their own problems and has no time to babysit your emotions. The key point here is that YOU should not waste time babysitting your emotions either -- especially you, the only person who's supposed to use that time and energy to deal with your problems.
Un-bitch yourself and start retardmaxxing today.
#retardmaxxing @pmarca @ElishaDLong
Steve retweeted
Waymo reports 95% fewer serious-injury-or-worse crashes than matched human benchmarks. We can scrutinize the evidence all we want, but how much safer MUST a machine be before we trust it with something we let humans do every day?
It will never be 100%.
Steve retweeted
Marc Andreessen revealed how Harvard Business School was built on a broken 1941 theory, and how it's now collapsing...
Andreessen co-founded Netscape in 1994 and a16z in 2009.
He has sat on Meta's board since 2008.
He has spent 30 years backing founders and watching managerial CEOs lose to them.
The pattern traces back to one book: James Burnham's The Machiavellians (1941).
Burnham argued every great company had been founder-run.
Henry Ford ran Ford. Bob Noyce ran Intel.
Today, Elon Musk runs Tesla, SpaceX, and Starlink.
Then, he said, something broke.
Between the 1880s and the 1920s, a new philosophy replaced the founder. It was called managerialism.
The professional manager would now hold a portable skill, usable across any business.
The consequences were:
- Harvard Business School
- Stanford Business School
- Management as a universal skill
- The 1970s conglomerate
"That assumes the managers are going to do a good job," Andreessen says.
For 30 years, they haven't.
Managers can run something static, he says. Soup is soup. A bank is a bank. A car is a car.
But when the industry changes, the manager freezes.
Look at SpaceX.
"Imagine being a professionally trained manager, trained at a top management school, working for a rocket launch company, competing with SpaceX."
Then Elon's rockets started landing on their butt.
"Your management skills ... what good are they at that point?"
Andreessen's conclusion:
"You're much more likely to build something important in the 21st century if you start with the founder and train them on management."
Steve retweeted
We’re inspired by psychohistory and the prime radiant, not by spreadsheets. Models don’t have to suck
Starlink revenue probability distribution through 2040 based on the first Mach33 Connectivity 'Keystone' Model. We split Earth up into well over 300k geographic cells and modeled terrestrial vs space connectivity for each. We will iterate the model quarterly.
2000 lines, one for each simulation…
$$$s nominal this time rather than inflation adjusted
Steve retweeted
I miss Larry Page
Steve Jurvetson once told Elon Musk a story he had never heard before.
At a Google event, Larry Page turned to Jurvetson out of the blue and wondered aloud how much money he had. After mentioning a number, Page said that if he were hit by a bus that day, he should leave all of it to Elon Musk.
Elon asked if he had really said that. Jurvetson confirmed it and joked that he immediately wanted to get it in writing.
Elon said he loved that and called Page a good friend. He noted they had known each other since around 1997, before Page received venture funding.
Jurvetson added that Page believed a corporation pursuing goals aligned with his own interests—such as moving away from oil and colonizing other planets—would accomplish far more than giving the money to a nonprofit. Page wished he could do more of that himself.
Steve retweeted
Neuralink’s first product is called Telepathy.
It enables high-speed communication with computers or humans simply by thinking. Output bandwidth will vastly exceed the fastest human speech or typing in a few years. Read that sentence again.
Steve retweeted
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
Steve retweeted
My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will:
1. Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate.
2. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority.
3. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority.
This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word.
All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one.
Steve retweeted
The Tesla and SpaceX numbers are in. Now the analysis: live with ARK, @mach33, and special guests today at 4pm ET.
teapawt.org/i/broadcasts/1qKVmyYRa…
Steve retweeted
United CEO Scott Kirby joins @benthompson and me to break down the airline business: justifying big capex, how they do route planning, what other CEOs screw up, the Starlink decision, why everyone misunderstands the credit card economics, and lots more.
Steve retweeted
Honestly, stop all unrealistic hope or wishful thinking, be humble and spend some times to learn about $SPCX if you are serious about investing. Otherwise you will miss a lot of upsides while waiting. Spend a good 1 hour to watch this SpaceX CFO @BretWJ interview, I promise you will get a lot of alpha out of it.
youtube.com/live/PNa1bjvPYX8…
这几年我常和朋友们说，长期投资应该是简单的，不应该很花时间、也不应该太烧脑。什么叫简单呢？大概就是：
1）别因为一个逻辑很浅显就不愿意相信它。也别尝试把简单逻辑复杂化，好像不够复杂的东西就不值钱似的。越大的机会，逻辑往往越浅显，摆在明面上，愿意去看见的人都能看见。在长线投资里，往往“人傻”才能“钱多”。财经媒体上听着特聪明的往往是流量经济从业者。我认识的成功长线投资者很多都是闷嘴儿葫芦 -- 不爱说、说也说不精彩，但产业大局看的清楚、坚定。
2）投资不是运营，投资者不是 operator。选定这个时代vision和execution都最牛的 operator，在最高战略层面把他听懂、和他对齐，后面就是让他和他的团队为你打工。要给足他信任和时间，别三天两头瞎操心运营层的种种。如果你选对了operator，那他对技术、对战略、对执行的认知一定是远超其他operator。那么作为一个看台上的投资者，你怎么可能完全看懂、理解他的每一个动作呢？商业决策上你都不可能全部理解，更不要说技术和运营细节了。该放就放 -- 因为放不下，你就会拿不住。看错了，你损失100%；看对了，但瞎操心导致拿不住，你的损失可能是10000%。
3）基本的财务框架要有，TAM、revenue这些重要数字在数量级上要有正确的拿捏。但不要埋头算小账、短期账。荒漠变莽林的跃迁时刻，别把精力花在预测第一棵树能结几粒果子上。对长期发展最正确的决策，对短期财务的影响往往是负面的。你作为长线投资者去投最牛的operator，其实就是投他做这类决策的能力。算远期大帐，忽略短期小帐。
Steve retweeted
Correct.
Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.
Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them.
Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week.
Starlink remains critical to the defense of Ukraine, as it is the only system that cannot be jammed or blown up, at least for now. Were Starlink to be turned off, the Ukrainian front line would collapse immediately. This is NOT a threat, it is simply a statement of fact.
Starlink was also crucial to preventing Russia from overrunning Ukraine in the early days of the war, as all other means of communication were destroyed or jammed by Russia.
SpaceX has done more to defend Ukraine than any private company on Earth BY FAR.
That said, I have nothing but UTTER CONTEMPT for the virtue-signaling evil warmongers who push for endless slaughter and offer no realistic solution to the conflict. May you burn in hell.
End of story.
Steve retweeted
Let me summarize: EVERY child under 18 direct owners in our best companies compounding for life. Real ownership not dependency. A new American birthright forevermore of $1000 in a free, lifetime investment acct. That’s it.
Keep donating to charities. Keep paying taxes. Keep our sacred promise to social security. But only real ownership can unlock the full human potential of all families & close the wealth gap.
Yes this will be a huge new employer benefits for 1000s of companies giving to kids of employees. Yes moms & dads & friends are already depositing 100s of millions small dollars at a time. Yes philanthropists love the idea of direct giving to America’s kids - full transparency, accountability, & high ROI.
As Geoffrey Canada said to me last week - in 50 yrs of fighting poverty, kids are still poor. This is the FIRST thing I have ever seen that will change that forever.
This has huge bi-partisan support. But kids are not Rs or Ds. They just want to live the American Dream. Invest America / 530A @TrumpAccounts will help them do just that! Claim your kids open & funded account today. 🇺🇸🤍🚀
apps.apple.com/us/app/trump-…
The amount of $SPCX alpha hidden in plain sight is crazy. I've never seen anything like this in my ~14 years of investing in Elon… Like, he and the team are spoon-feeding large amounts of very detailed, precise projections via earnings calls and interviews — datapoints even junior analysts know how to insert into their spreadsheets. Yet institutional investors are both super under-allocated and not paying attention. No investment advice, obviously, but I gotta say all you need to do to capture this alpha is pay a little attention to what they are telling you in plain English and have a little patience for the market to re-rate it after the lockup (which is largely behind us). A good investment should be easy — and this will be yet another case study to prove just that.