Senior Equity Analyst at ByteTree | CFA Charterholder | Focused on quality investing | Views my own, not investment advice.
London, England
Joined March 2019
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Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Defensive Stocks Surge
In a dramatic shift, low-volatility stocks are now the strongest daily CAPR trend group, following a long period of high-volatility stocks leading the market.
Mega-caps still dominate, so no change there.
This fits the “flight to quality” narrative.
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Breaking down global momentum ⬇️
After five years in a bear market, US bonds suddenly surged against world equities in October.
Low-volatility stocks have also overtaken high-vol names as the strongest trend group. It’s a classic flight to quality.
📉 Stocks with a bearish 0-star daily ByteTrend score: 48% → 29%
📈 Stocks with a bullish 5-star score: 9% → 17%
Semis ($SOXX 👇) held an almost unbroken 5-star relative trend from June 2025. They have now slipped to a neutral 3 and are making new relative lows.
Is this a blip or a real shift?
This week’s Global Trends update by @WinderKit is free to read on our website - link in reply👇
$TLT #Bonds #Semiconductors #Momentum
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Great note by @FTAlphaville on the different ways to slice and dice French debt metrics. Firstly, converting it into constant currency to make intl rates more comparable, and then looking at spreads over the overnight funding rates, showing how small the current crisis is compared to Greece in the early 2010s.
This is a seismic flicker at the moment - a warning - but not an earthquake (yet).
In the end, perhaps what matters most is how much of a country’s GDP goes towards interest payments. France has quite a long average maturity (8.5yrs) sparing it a degree of urgency. And despite the last few weeks, France’s EU-leading govt spending and debt/GDP levels, the US and Italy are still set to spend a higher proportion of their economic product on paying off interest.
ft.com/content/9aa4549e-26f4… How nervous are bond markets about France?
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Huge move in high beta/low volatility yesterday. Quality stocks doing what they should when the wind picks up.
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Right now, the biggest risk to financial markets is an oil shock, as it impacts everything. #CrudeOil is heading back towards all-time highs, and US WTI is closing the gap with Brent. The world’s oil problem is becoming a US problem too.
Meanwhile, another concern is market concentration.
📈 The world’s 100 largest companies now account for 43% of the global market cap. That level of concentration is rare and usually appears only at major market peaks.
Eventually, that concentration will reverse. We saw major rotations in 1975, 2003, and 2009, and the latest market rotation may already be underway. This is when the real opportunities kick in.
This and more in our latest update of The Multi-Asset Investor by @AtlasPulse - link in reply 👇
#OilPlay #OilShock #BRENTCRUDE
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Q3 2026 Market Review: Rising Bond Yields & Extreme Market Concentration youtu.be/L8P51tcdbIM?is=PWqn… via @YouTube
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Notable move lower in the US 10 year yield AND Asian chip stocks overnight.
What's the correlation?
Higher yields mean to be worth owning, an equity needs to have higher growth and margins. At 1% US10Y, most companies look attractive. At 5.3%, only a select few do.
This led us to see some of the lowest breadth in 20 years, as fewer then 10% of the stock market was in a strong trend, while 35% was underperforming badly.
Korea, which is 50% dominated by Samsung and SK Hynix, is emblematic of this.
So as rates rise, expect the AI trade and narrowing market to continue. As they fall, expect rotation back into other sectors/countries, as the market broadens.
$EWY $SPY $QQQ
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
$KORU -10% today, now at $13.2.
It's down 43% MTD... On October 14.
The last two crashes bottomed at $11-12...
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Less than 10% of stocks (blue line) are in strong uptrends. Concentrated in high-vol megacaps.
Red line is the underperformers - 35% of the market in weak trends.
Record breadth means index doesn't reveal lived performance of most stocks.
Data from bytetrend.io
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
In 20 years, we haven’t seen so few stocks outperforming the market — or so many lagging 📉
@AtlasPulse suspects the last time it was this extreme was at the 2000 dotcom peak. #Semiconductors are rolling over after failing to make new highs. A big rotation looks likely - time to prepare.
🛢️ Meanwhile, crude isn’t selling off despite the messaging. Oil for delivery in late-2027 is rising again, the market’s way of saying oil is staying "stronger for longer."
📈Crude oil spot and forward delivery (source: Bloomberg)
This and more in the latest Multi-Asset Investor - link in reply👇
#Oil $BRNB $SPOG
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
UK small and mid-caps have been left behind this cycle.
But look closer, and there are hidden gems.
This week’s Venture pick is a UK payments business:
📉 Shares back at 2006 levels
📈 Sales rising nicely
💰 Strong share buybacks
💷 6% dividend yield
And a new uptrend has just begun.
You don’t see that very often. Link to the article in reply 👇
#UKStocks #SmallCaps #Investing
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Great thread on @ByteTrend, our exciting new market intelligence platform focused on trends and the momentum effect ⤵️
Give this page a follow!
Trend following enhances returns and controls risk.
Also known as the momentum factor, it is one of a handful of factors in investing with a proven ability to generate alpha.
This month, @ByteTree has relaunched ByteTrend (bytetrend.io/) to help investors analyse, understand, and capitalise on the momentum effect.
The chart shows the returns from buying winners (blue) vs buying losers (red). The momentum effect has generated a 16x return over the past thirty years.
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
Fastenal $FAST - superb operator.
FCF margins have risen steadily over thirty years. But are they enough to justify record multiples? Is there room left to improve margins even further?
EV to Sales now at 6.6x, vs post-2000 average of 3.9x (has gone below 2x).
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
The US 10-year yield has gone from under 4% to over 5.3% in 500 trading days or less. That has only happened once before, in June 2007.
And it isn't happening in isolation. French government bond yields are at their highest since the 2011 euro crisis, and US mortgage rates are back at 2001 levels. Of the major markets, only China is seeing yields fall.
Rising rates usually work against quality stocks, which behave a bit like bonds. But there is a tipping point. Once rates get high enough to worry investors about stretched valuations and a narrow market, the resilience of quality stocks starts to matter more.
In this latest ByteTree Quality update, @AtlasPulse and @WinderKit explain why we are sticking to sound principles rather than chasing the late stages of a narrow and expensive rally.
Link in reply 👇
#bondyields #risingrates #qualitystocks #qualityinvesting #Quality
Kit Winder, CFA retweeted
This is the basis of the BOLD index. Bitcoin and gold risk weighted. I even quote Ray Dalio bold.report/downloads/ByteTr…
The holy grail of investing is knowing how to balance.
When you can take equally good things where your expectation of return is equal, but because they are uncorrelated and move differently, they balance each other. That is how you can reduce your risk without reducing your returns.
You have to understand that the market is a zero-sum game. The consensus is already reflected in the price, and trying to beat it is a difficult game. In fact, it is more difficult to compete and be successful in the markets than it is to compete in the Olympics. We must be humble about that.
But achieving that balance so you can get a good return without losing a lot of money is everything. Most of my own money is invested in exactly that.
#Investing #AssetAllocation #RiskManagement #Principles