We help humans flourish in the age of AI by thinking positive-sum, growing deliberately, and seeking truth in good faith—together
Joined June 2023
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Third Brain retweeted
From Professor Claude:
When a single influential voice breaks through enforced conformity in a repressive system, several key patterns tend to emerge in sequence:
First, there's often an initial shock effect - a sudden rupture in what political theorists call the "spiral of silence." The mere act of saying the forbidden creates a demonstration effect, proving that speaking is possible. This typically produces an immediate polarizing response: harsh condemnation from regime supporters alongside a surge of private recognition from those who had been silently harboring similar thoughts.
The second phase usually involves what social scientists call "preference falsification" beginning to break down. Others who privately held similar views but feared expressing them start to recognize they're not alone. There's often a "emperor has no clothes" moment where obvious but unspoken truths suddenly become discussable.
Historical examples are instructive here. Consider Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's publication of "One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich" in 1962 - this single authorized truth-telling about the gulag system created hairline cracks that eventually contributed to wider questioning of the Soviet system. Similarly, Václav Havel's essay "The Power of the Powerless" articulated what many Czechoslovak citizens privately knew but couldn't say about life under communism.
However, the regime's response is crucial in determining what happens next. If the truth-teller can maintain their platform despite pressure, it often leads to what political scientists call "informational cascades" - where suddenly many people update their beliefs about what others believe. This can reach a tipping point where preference falsification collapses rapidly, as occurred in the East German revolution of 1989.
Third Brain retweeted
Spectacular conversation between @pmarca & @joerogan including important coverage of whats been happening in tech and media and other industries over the last years etc and where things are headed now. Don’t miss it. Well worth your time.
open.spotify.com/episode/0U4…
Third Brain retweeted
When Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland unbanked the Canadian truckers to silence them, the world saw the oppression but those poor proletarians couldn’t really fight back.
However, once Elizabeth Warren and her goons tried to attack tech founders in the same way, they finally met their match. These ruthless wokes ran headlong into a determined counter-elite with enough resources to — just barely — fight back and win.
This is a general rule. Progressives love to beat up on isolated conservatives, but they start losing once tech libertarians enter the fight.
Against the far left’s monstrous state, we can now field giant robots.
Third Brain retweeted
It's clear that @neiltyson is just a dollar-store Carl Sagan.
Here's how Sagan spoke about colonizing Mars. He echoed @elonmusk's rationale for avoiding extinction, and spoke to our deep need as humans to be wanderers.
RIP Carl, you absolute legend. ✨
Third Brain retweeted
Insecure people strive to prove their intelligence. They're quick to assure us that they have the answer—they're determined to be right.
Secure people aim to improve their intelligence. They're quick to speak up when they have questions—they're focused on getting it right.
Third Brain retweeted
The political party closest to the views of the “moderates” will win. That party is currently the Republicans.
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Third Brain retweeted
Thank you @realDonaldTrump for your leadership and courage. I'm committed to advancing your vision to Make America Healthy Again.
We have a generational opportunity to bring together the greatest minds in science, medicine, industry, and government to put an end to the chronic disease epidemic.
I look forward to working with the more than 80,000 employees at HHS to free the agencies from the smothering cloud of corporate capture so they can pursue their mission to make Americans once again the healthiest people on Earth.
Together we will clean up corruption, stop the revolving door between industry and government, and return our health agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science. I will provide Americans with transparency and access to all the data so they can make informed choices for themselves and their families.
My commitment to the American people is to be an honest public servant. Let’s go!
Third Brain retweeted
Truth-seekers take feedback from nature (planes have to fly), free markets (customers have to buy), or competition (militaries have to win).
Consensus-seekers take feedback from people (actors want fans, academics want honors, politicians want votes, journalists want status).
Third Brain retweeted
I’m entering hospice today. Will probably update every little if at all. But I wanted to say to be kind, be brave, be principled, be an idealist. Most importantly, be a decent human.
I love that we existed together, in this moment of time.
Third Brain retweeted
Carl Sagan: The thing that I find most striking is the enormous, remarkable capability of virtually every small child for learning. They start out eager, intellectually wide-eyed, asking extremely clever questions about the world. And then something happens, by and large, to discourage them. I think it’s a tremendous waste of natural resources.
For example, a kid asks, “Mommy, why is the grass green?” And very often, you get an answer like, “Oh, don’t ask dumb questions,” or “Who knows?” when, in fact, it’s an extremely profound question.
How much better it would be to say to the child, “That’s a good question, Johnny. I don’t know the answer. Maybe we can look it up, or maybe nobody knows. Maybe when you grow up, you’ll be the person to find out.” I think kids who are discouraged from asking those questions wind up learning the lesson that there’s something bad about using the mind. We lose resources, and we need those intellectual resources because we are in very perilous times.
The complex and subtle problems that we face can only have complex and subtle solutions, and we need people able to think complex and subtle thoughts. I believe a great many children have that capability if only they’re encouraged.
Third Brain retweeted
I have to admit if there’s one thing the government could do to make me excited for the future, this is it
Third Brain retweeted
I will say it simply. @realDonaldTrump and @JDVance have the opportunity to change everything. Everything depends on @realDonaldTrump’s use of this historic opportunity.
This could restore America. Or tank it.
To say it my way, this is the highest *variance* presidency of my lifetime. As bad as Kamala was (and you know my position) she was probably lower variance. Lower variance and much lower mean.
This is potentially amazing because the sky is the limit. Given the chance, I will help anyone to use this mandate to make it the best presidency it can possibly be.
But you can’t ask me to close my eyes to the risks. I’m just not that guy. Never was and never will be. This is incredibly dangerous as we are seated at the high stakes table now.
I don’t understand Americans who want Trump to fail. I think he is a brilliant man which I have always said. But he is also incredibly divisive. I think he truly loves his country and wants the best for it. He is also very dangerous and unpredictable. And he NEEDS that unpredictability to survive. He is very strong. And perhaps he needs to be dangerous. I could be persuaded that this is necessary.
He learned last time that you need an sea of people to govern. He won’t make that mistake again.
Am I optimistic? Yes. Very. Am I deeply deeply worried? Absolutely. Very.
Again in my language: stop focusing on the mean. If I absolutely had to say what I am feeling, with a gun to my head I might say this is high mean, high variance, negative skew, high kurtosis.
As a weather report: this is a low confidence forecast of an amazing spring day with a bit more than a slight chance of apocalypse.
I know “But Bruh, Are you MAGA?”
No. This is why we have more than one moment of a distribution and not a simple binary. MAGA is a broad coalition that seats some people who I view as “unworkable”. I can’t personally endorse a movement that tolerates that element in order to win. But I get along with plenty of MAGA People. And generally they get me. Most of them like me, understand me from podcasting, and don’t need me wearing a hat.
Lastly, you have no idea how desperately I want this to work. And it could be amazing. I think that is likely but with very weak conviction. As above.
Here to help, This is more or less what I predicted. Nothing has changed.
And word to the wise: mind the time *before* the inauguration. Don’t take your eye off the ball prematurely.
Third Brain retweeted
But institutions are over.
It’s all individuals now.
White House → Trump
60 Minutes → Rogan
NYT → Greenwald
NASA → Elon
So, the right approach is to ignore Wired and Scientific American. Just replace them with individual voices at 1/100 the price and 100X the quality.
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Third Brain retweeted
A good teacher does not teach facts, he or she teaches enthusiasm, open-mindedness and values.
-- Gian-Carlo Rota
Third Brain retweeted
The best Christmas present you can give this year is a cancelled subscription to traditional media.
They’ve harmed civilizational progress long enough.
I cancelled my @nytimes and @washingtonpost subscriptions and just reallocated the money to subscribe and follow the following folks on @X whom I believe help me get accurate news.
@cremieuxrecueil
@AutismCapital
@shellenberger
@KanekoaTheGreat
@TheChiefNerd
I will periodically publish accounts I subscribe to on @X that you may want to consider supporting as well. Worst case, consider following them.
Third Brain retweeted
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
Third Brain retweeted
Don’t bet against @elonmusk
Alternative Energy
Autonomous cars
Global internet for everyone
Free Speech
Inter-planetary civilization
🚀🚗⚡️🇺🇸
Let’s fucking go